World economy talk

[br733]

i hope it does not spread to saudi....

the countries where upheavals have happened.... are mostly third world countries? tunisia? egypt? now libya?.... saudi is supposed to be what? second world? i dont think i have heard of second world yet...

[Monseratto]

NYMEX hits US$ 100 last night.

[Monseratto]

Better keep your tanks full, weekly rise at the pumps again...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12548471

The price of Brent crude oil has hit $111 a barrel, and US crude also rose in price, as worries persist about the unrest in Libya.

Markets are concerned the trouble could worsen in key oil producing countries, affecting supplies and hitting growth.

The price of Brent rose more than $5 a barrel, to $111.25.

And US light sweet crude oil prices hit $100 a barrel for the first time since October 2008, before settling up 2.8% at $98.10 a barrel.

[Monseratto]

While other countries are evacuating their citizens from Libya as quickly as possible...

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english201...c_13746559.htm

China arranges logistics backup for evacuation of citizens in Libya
English.news.cn 2011-02-24 00:24:00 FeedbackPrintRSS

BEIJING, Feb. 24 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said on Wednesday night that it was arranging emergency logistics backup bound for Libya to help Chinese citizens stranded by the unrest in the country .

The emergency relief materials that cover necessities and medical services includes 10 tons of food, 4.5 tons of drinking water, 2,000 flashlights and commonly used medicines.

The supplies will be flown by Air China's second chartered plane to Libya at around 2:00 a.m. on Thursday morning, a MOC spokesman said.

China's first chartered plane sent to evacuate Chinese citizens from Libya left Beijing at about 5:15 p.m. on Wednesday with food, medicine and other necessities on board.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/loca...kick-into-gear

Libya exit plans kick into gear

Plans to evacuate Thai workers from Libya have been stepped up amid reports of violence and food shortages at their labour camps.

More than 600 Thai workers have already left the troubled country and authorities are hastening plans to evacuate another 9,000 Thais thought to be at risk. The evacuation effort could begin as early as tomorrow.

Libya has closed its airspace, so authorities are planning to evacuate workers by sea to Malta, and from there to Rome and back to Thailand, for those who wish to return.

We are sending VP Binay to assess the problem...DFA advise to our OFWs: You're on your own..."[ sabay face palm].

http://www.journal.com.ph/index.php/...dle-east-.html

Binay off to Middle East
by Cristina Lee-Pisco
Wednesday, 23 February 2011 19:29

VICE President and Presidential Adviser on Overseas Filipino Workers’ Concerns Jejomar C. Binay leaves for the Middle East tomorrow to look into the situation of the Filipino workers in the Arab states.

He will be closely monitoring the security situation of OFWs in Libya, Bahrain and Yemen in light of protest actions taking place in those countries.

The Vice President will also hold bilateral discussions with high ranking officials in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates on labor agreements that aim to improve the conditions of Filipino workers.

As of June 2010, around 31,000 Filipinos were in Bahrain, 26,000 in Libya and 1,400 in Yemen.

“We are working very closely with DFA [Department of Foreign Affairs] and our embassies to ensure that all preparations and contingency measures are smoothly implemented,” Binay said.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/global-fi...ld-hunker-down

OFWs in Libya told to 'hunker down'
abs-cbnNEWS.com
Posted at 02/23/2011 5:14 PM | Updated as of 02/23/2011 11:05 PM

MANILA, Philippines - The Aquino government on Wednesday urged Filipinos in critical areas in Libya to "hunker down where you are safe" as it waits for the "right opportunity" to come in and implement its evacuation plan.

Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Esteban Conejos said the evacuation plan can be carried out only if it is already safe to go around the violence-stricken country.

"It is dangerous to move inside Libya now whether inside Benghazi or in Tripoli or to move in between these two cities. In the event it is safe to move around in Libya, the government will execute an evacuation plan for our Filipinos there," Conejos said in a press conference in Malacañang.

[uls]

i hope it does not spread to saudi....

the countries where upheavals have happened.... are mostly third world countries? tunisia? egypt? now libya?.... saudi is supposed to be what? second world? i dont think i have heard of second world yet...

it has less to do with being third world. other third world countries are not experiencing mass uprising

it has more to do with their leaders. those countries' leaders are long-serving autocrats

their masses decided it's time for change of leadership

nauna lang ang Pinas by 25 years

[uls]

While other countries are evacuating their citizens from Libya as quickly as possible...

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english201...c_13746559.htm



http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/loca...kick-into-gear



We are sending VP Binay to assess the problem...DFA advise to our OFWs: You're on your own..."[ sabay face palm].

http://www.journal.com.ph/index.php/...dle-east-.html




http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/global-fi...ld-hunker-down

hunker down

hahahaha

in other words, ingat nalang kayo dyan

[Monseratto]

funds selling agricultural commodities, buying oil

light sweet crude grades are skyrocketting coz Libyan crude is light sweet

even if Saudi Arabia said it would pump more oil to offset Libya's supply disruption, Saudi crude isnt light sweet. Saudi crude heavy sour

--

Brent above $110

WTI above $98

What's sweet crude?

Sweet crude oil is a type of petroleum. Petroleum is considered "sweet" if it contains less than 0.5% sulfur,[1] compared to a higher level of sulfur in sour crude oil. Sweet crude oil contains small amounts of hydrogen sulfide and carbon dioxide. High quality, low sulfur crude oil is commonly used for processing into gasoline and is in high demand, particularly in the industrialized nations. "Light sweet crude oil" is the most sought-after version of crude oil as it contains a disproportionately large amount of these fractions that are used to process gasoline, kerosene, and high-quality diesel. The term "sweet" originated because the low level of sulfur provides the oil with a mildly sweet taste and pleasant smell. Nineteenth century prospectors would taste and smell small quantities of the oil to determine its quality.[2]

Even though it only accounts less than 2 % of worldwide oil export, why has Libyan sweet crude have a big effect on crude prices...?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/bu...er=rss&emc=rss

Libya’s “sweet” crude oil cannot be easily replaced in the production of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, particularly by the many European and Asian refineries that are not equipped to refine “sour” crude, which is higher in sulfur content. Saudi Arabia has more than four million barrels of spare capacity and has promised to tap it if necessary, but that capacity is mostly for sour grades of oil.

Should the turmoil in Libya last for more than a few weeks, oil experts predict that European refiners will be forced to buy sweet crude from Algeria and Nigeria, two principal sources of sweet crude for the United States. That would probably push up American gasoline prices, which have already risen 6 cents a gallon over the last week to an average of $3.19 for regular grade.

“It will force all sweet crude refiners into a bidding war,” said Lawrence J. Goldstein, a director at the Energy Policy Research Foundation, an organization partly financed by the oil industry. “Quality matters more than quantity.”

Sweet crude is particularly well suited for producing diesel fuel, which is far more popular as a transportation fuel in Europe than in the United States. Sour crudes are more expensive to refine, but American refineries are typically outfitted with equipment to refine them because so much oil imported to the United States comes from Latin America, where many oil reserves are sour.

The last time there was a shortage of sweet crude, in 2007 and early 2008, oil prices surged to more than $140 a barrel, although that shortage was caused mostly by spiraling demand and not a sudden cut in supply.

Next flashpoint maybe Algeria, another exporter of sweet crude...

That leaves the eyes of the oil world on neighboring Algeria, another country with a history of unrest. Algeria is the seventh-biggest source of American oil imports.

There have been sporadic protests against high food prices and unemployment in Algeria over the last several weeks, including at least two large demonstrations in Algiers demanding the resignation of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

You have a powder keg in Algeria with social problems, ethnic problems and an Islamist organization blended together and overlapping,” said Michael J. Economides, a professor of engineering and energy economics at the University of Houston. “Many refineries would go into paroxysm if they lose Libyan and Algerian oil.”

[uls]

Brent above $117!! it just passed $110 last night

[tidus1203]

WTI also went past $100...

A lot of panic buying going around here...

That chart is really scary, shows you the panic pero ingat din kasi its wisdom naman that mabilis akyat, mabilis din bagsak...

[Monseratto]

Best time for the speculators to make a ton of moolah...

[tidus1203]

Buying the actual futures contract would probably be the best way to play this... The oil ETF's are really lagging the futures contracts...

[Monseratto]

Most of the previous charts posted around this thread are active. Like this one...

Saudi Arabia credit default swap

[jhnkvn]

Shet, panic talaga sa world markets. IMO, Saudi is safe. It's not like the country is oppressed. But a rise in the overall Middle East credit swaps is normal in the panic.

US DJIA is at a 2-day negative streak. Should present some opportunities. Earnings still outweigh the rise of the whole S&P 500 in 2010 last time I checked. Unlike that time in 2007 pre-crash where you can really see people gobbling too-high-P/E stocks without thinking of risk.

[uls]

Shet, panic talaga sa world markets. IMO, Saudi is safe. It's not like the country is oppressed. But a rise in the overall Middle East credit swaps is normal in the panic.

i don't think Saudi Arabia is safe

the fact that the Saudi king announced a $36B social welfare package as soon as he returned from Morocco means he is afraid mass uprising could happen in his country

he will use money to keep his people at bay

that's bribery

Saudi Arabia king accused of misjudged bribery in attempt to avoid unrest
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011...ccused-bribery

Leading intellectuals in Saudi Arabia have warned that grand financial gestures are no substitute for meaningful political reform, after King Abdullah unveiled a $36bn (£22bn) social welfare package in advance of planned anti-government protests next month.

[uls]

Gaddafi has lost control of most of Libya

the only place he has control of is Tripoli

Tripoli is now isolated (many OFWs are trapped in Tripoli)

[br733]

is the world better off without gaddafi at the helm? it seems libya is moving towards anarchy and that does not bode well for crude oil supply.

[uls]

disruption of Libya oil production has already been priced in

what hasnt been priced in yet is disruption of another major oil producer

--

civil war breaks out in Tripoli

[Monseratto]

is the world better off without gaddafi at the helm? it seems libya is moving towards anarchy and that does not bode well for crude oil supply.

Libya is Khadaffy Incorporated. Everything is controlled by just one man and his family. Even the military is controlled by the sons of Quadaffy. There is no succession...

[Monseratto]

Another domino?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12590588

Oman clashes: Two killed during protests in Gulf state
27 February 2011 Last updated at 14:05 GMT

Two people have been reported killed in clashes between security forces and protesters in the Gulf state of Oman.

Hundreds of people had gathered for a second day of protests calling for political reforms, in the industrial city of Sohar.

At least five people were wounded when police fired tear gas and rubber bullets at the protesters, reports say.

Until now, Oman had mostly been spared the unrest which has affected other Arab states in recent months.

Demonstrations are also taking place in the southern town of Salalah, according to Reuters news agency.

There was a small protest last week in the capital Muscat last week, with around 300 people calling for greater democracy and jobs.

Reporting Sunday's disturbances in Sohar, the state-controlled Oman News Agency said a number of demonstrators were involved "riots" that resulted in public and private property being destroyed.

"The police and anti-riot groups combated this vandal group in a bid to maintain the safety of the citizens and their properties which resulted in some injuries," it said.

Reshuffle

On Saturday the ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, changed six ministers in his cabinet in what he termed "the public's interest" and announced that social benefits for students would be boosted.

The oldest independent state in the Arab world, Oman has been ruled by Sultan Qaboos since he seized power from his father Sultan Said bin Taimur in 1970.

There is an elected Consultative Assembly but not all Omani adults are eligible to vote in elections for the Assembly and it is purely advisory, with no legislative powers.

The oil-rich country is a popular tourist destination and a long-standing ally of the US and Britain.

[Monseratto]

With things getting desperate on the ground by the hour in Libya, some countries are starting to use commando type tactics. Of the few hundreds OFWs that were evacuated so far by their employers, no thanks to our unreliable goverment, thousands more are left behind with supplies running out.

UK, Germany fly secret evac missions into Libya



By KIRSTEN GRIESHABER and SYLVIA HUI, Associated Press Kirsten Grieshaber And Sylvia Hui, Associated Press – 1 hr 14 mins ago

BERLIN – British and German military planes swooped into Libya's desert, rescuing hundreds of oil workers and civilians stranded at remote sites, as thousands of other foreigners are still stuck in Tripoli by bad weather and red tape.

The secret military missions into the turbulent North Africa country signal the readiness of Western nations to disregard Libya's territorial integrity when it comes to the safety of their citizens.

Three British Royal Air Force planes plucked 150 stranded civilians from multiple locations in the eastern Libyan desert before flying them to Malta on Sunday, the British Defense Ministry said in a statement.

The rescue follows a similar secret commando raid Saturday by British Special Forces that got another 150 oil workers from the remote Libyan desert.

Separately, Germany said its air force had evacuated 132 people also from the desert during a secret military mission on Saturday.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said Sunday that two German military planes landed on a private runway belonging to the Wintershall AG company and evacuated 22 Germans and 112 others and flew them to the Greek island of Crete.

Thousands of Bangladeshis, Pakistanis, Somalis, Ethiopians and others spilled out of a row of port side shelters and shivered in the strong winds and *******ial rains. These are some of the foreigner workers whose governments have not organized evacuation for them. Many work for Chinese and Turkish construction firms.

On Crete, three more ships arrived from the eastern Libyan port of Benghazi early Sunday carrying about 4,200 passengers, mostly Chinese but also 750 Bangladeshis and 200 Vietnamese, authorities said. Air China planned four flights Sunday from Crete, carrying about 1,200 Chinese back to their homeland.

Another ferry from Benghazi with 2,000 more Chinese was expected to reach Crete on Monday night, shipping agents said.

The sheer numbers of foreigners leaving Libya as Moammar Gadhafi's regime battles anti-government protesters has been staggering. At least 20,000 Chinese, 15,000 Turks and 1,400 Italians had been evacuated, most working in the construction and oil industries.

In addition, some 22,000 people have fled across the Libyan border to Tunisia and another 15,000 crossed the border into Egypt, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told the Security Council.

One cruise ship carried some 1,750 evacuees — mostly from Vietnam and Thailand — from Libya to Malta early Sunday, and another ship reached the Athens port of Piraeus carrying 390 evacuees, chiefly Brazilians, Portuguese and British.