World economy talk

[br733]

i assume the ratio of 1 is from the website you linked to? december alone of 40k and 70k would yield a diff ratio?

[tidus1203]

Muka nga doon sa link ni uls based on the October 23 put/call ratio...

[uls]

br733:

i assume the ratio of 1 is from the website you linked to? december alone of 40k and 70k would yield a diff ratio?

dun sa put/call ratio, they look at all call and put options, at all strike prices

[tidus1203]

GOLD all time high again (not yet inflation adjusted) $1085/oz...

[uls]

India's central bank just bought 200 metric tons of gold from the IMF

central banks around the world are increasing gold holdings

[uls]

gold passes $1090

traders betting other central banks will also buy gold



--

oil back above $80

[tidus1203]

And I am betting its still going up. It was quite a wait for gold bulls like me (2 years in the making) but our moment has finally arrive!

[tidus1203]

LONDON (AP) -- The Bank of England said Thursday it will pour another 25 billion pounds ($41 billion) into the British economy to get the country out of recession as it kept its main interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent.

The bank decided to expand its asset purchase program to 200 billion pounds from 175 billion pounds. The purchases, which are expected to take three months to complete, aim to increase the amount of money in the economy and are financed by the issuance of central bank reserves.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/BoE-ad...&asset=&ccode=


Mervin King is running the printing presses again at mach speed... US jr. (I like to call the UK US Jr. because of its economic similarity to the US) sure is in a pinch these days even more than Sr. is!

[uls]

Mervyn King desperately needs to create inflation coz...

UK Shop Prices Unchanged On Month And Year In Oct - BRC

Wed, Nov 4 2009, 08:14 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Shop prices were unchanged in October from both October last year and September a survey from the British Retail Consortium showed Wednesday.

The flat outcome compared with a 0.1% fall on the year and a 0.1% rise on the month in September, and reflected a 2.5% rise in food prices and a 1.3% fall in non-food costs from a year earlier as retailers continue to cut prices in order to stimulate sales on the high street, the BRC said.

On the month, food prices fell 0.1% while the cost of non-food items was unchanged from September.

"Overall shop prices are no more than they were a year ago," said Stephen Robertson, the BRC's director general. With food prices now much less than they were earlier in the year and the cost of non-food items continuing to fall, "Christmas is lining up to be a punch-up between retailers as they battle it out for market share. Customers can reap the benefits from all the promotions and discounts," Robertson said.

[tidus1203]

I think shop prices is not the reason he wants to create inflation. He is desperately trying to create inflation hoping with so much money somehow people will start spending again... So far it has not worked, QE that is...

[uls]

++++++++++++++++++++

[uls]

ya, i just used that as an example

generally, i mean there's no inflation in the UK

they desperately need inflation

fractional reserve lending, fiat money system needs inflation to keep on going

more money (debt) has to be created than previous amount created to pay the previous debts (principal + interest)

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inflation isnt coming from the UK private sector (consumers borrowing less, banks lending less)

so the govt has to fill the hole left by the private sector

the govt has to do the borrowing and spending the private sector isnt doing

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UK QE isnt working coz not enough inflation is being created

try harder Mervyn King

[tidus1203]

IMO (said it last year na pero uulitin ko uli) the problem is not the lack of money, the problem is confidence!! Consumers and businesses don't want to spend because of FEAR. No amount of money printing can change that psychology only time! That is why UK's QE has not worked and dare I say WILL NEVER WORK.

[uls]

yes, lack of confidence

there's no inflation coz banks arent lending

so there's no money multiplier

banks aren't lending coz they arent confident borrowers will be able to pay them back

consumers arent borrowing coz they are already deep in debt

they arent confident about their job security

investors arent confident about the economy so they arent borrowing money to expand their businesses

the US and UK governments have to do the borrowing and spending (money creation) to create inflation

[uls]

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/excess_reserves.asp

What Does Excess Reserves Mean?
Capital reserves held by a bank or financial institution in excess of what is required by regulators, creditors or internal controls. For commercial banks, excess reserves are measured against standard reserve requirement amounts set by central banking authorities. These required reserve ratios set the minimum liquid deposits (such as cash) that must be in reserve at a bank; more is considered excess.

Investopedia explains Excess Reserves
Financial firms that carry excess reserves have an extra measure of safety in the event of sudden loan losses or cash withdrawals by customers. This may increase the attractiveness of the company that holds excess reserves to investors, especially in times of economic uncertainty. Boosting the level of excess reserves can also improve an entity's credit rating, as measured by ratings agencies like Standard & Poor's.

[tidus1203]

The Great Recession is typical market natural correcting mechanism. If you lend out too much even to people or entities with questionable ability to pay (sub-prime and all that crap) then eventually it has to correct. The market has forced these banks to have greater reserves beyond requirements...

[uls]

looks like bets on a USD rally are increasing

the ETF UUP (PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund )

UUP is based on the USD index

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/DB-Com....html?x=0&.v=1

DB Commodity Services Files with the SEC to Register 100 Million Additional Shares of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--DB Commodity Services LLC today announced it has filed a registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to register 100,000,000 additional shares of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE Arca: UUP) in order to meet investor demand. Creations of new shares in the fund are temporarily suspended pending clearance of the registration statement by the SEC, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the National Futures Association and declaration of the effectiveness of the registration statement.

[tidus1203]

Yeah short term I am also bullish on the USD against Gold, and case-to-case basis against other currencies. Gold is overbought at this stage and a nice $30 pullback would be welcome by gold bulls...

[tidus1203]

Markets opened higher on Thursday as a strong reading on productivity and an easing in jobless claims helped cheer investors. Will stocks continue to rise from this point? Steve Hochberg, chief market analyst at Elliott Wave International, shared his market outlook.

“This has been a bear-market rally,” Hochberg told CNBC.
“It’s been a great rally in terms of percentage gain over a short period of time, but everything we look at in terms of the internals of the market suggests that it’s just a bear-market rally.”
Hochberg said the number of advancing shares versus declining shares has been “contracting on the way up” and the advancing volume on the NYSE has been in a “typical bear market profile”—contracting as the rally extended.
Hochberg said that another important factor is market sentiment.
“Back at the lows in March, you had 2 percent stock bulls,” he said.
“Now we have a rally and we’ve recently had 91 percent stock bulls, which coincided with the closing high on October 19 on the S&P. This is typical of bear market rallies and now we’ve turned over.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33654987


Here is Elliot Waver telling us its all just a big DUD! A bear market rally and not a reversal. Although medyo 50-50 ako sa effectivity ng Elliot Wave analysis (tried it myself with mixed results in my trading)...

[tidus1203]

Expect stocks to fall...

Unemployment now pass the key 10% at 10.2%, job losses for October is 190,000... Around 15.7M people is unemployed in the US...