World economy talk

[tidus1203]

Hay wala na rin kasing mapaglalagyan... People are so contented to be kicked in the arse by inflation basta wag lang malugi ang capital...

[uls]

NYMEX crude passes last year's high (October)

[tidus1203]

More oil price hikes likely, better gas up if you got the chance...

[james00112233]

Will the oil price increase continue in the next few weeks or month?

[uls]

^^

if you look strictly at fundamentals, oil price shouldnt be that high

demand is still low

the EIA just reported a higher-then-expected increase in US crude oil stockpiles

BUT

market players are looking at other stuff

like the USD, the weather, geopolitics

so to answer your question...

as long as the USD keeps weakening

as long as the weather in the northern regions of the Earth remains blistering cold

as long as there are tensions between the US and Iran, Yemen

oil price has more upside

[uls]

Investopedia:

What Does January Effect Mean?
A general increase in stock prices during the month of January. This rally is generally attributed to an increase in buying, which follows the drop in price that typically happens in December when investors, seeking to create tax losses to offset capital gains, prompt a sell-off.

---

on the first trading day of the year, Jan. 4, stocks rallied

Jan. 4 DJIA +155.91, Nasdaq +39.27, S&P500 +17.89

Jan. 5 DJIA -11.94, Nasdaq +0.29, S&P500 +3.53

Jan. 6 DJIA +1.66, Nasdaq -7.62, S&P500 +0.62

--

oil lost momentum in Asia trading today

Oil falls below $83 as month-long rally stalls
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-fa...37990.html?x=0

so did gold

Nikkei down, Hang Seng down

guess everyone was a bit too excited coming into the new year

burned up all their energy in just a couple of days hehe

since it's still less than a week, it's too early to tell

--

Japan's new finance minister says he wants a weaker yen

Dollar gains on rivals in Asian trading
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dol...teid=rss&rss=1

TOKYO (MarketWatch) - The dollar spiked against its Japanese counterpart in late Asian trading Thursday, after Japan's newly appointed top finance official used his inaugural news conference to talk down the yen.

Finance Minister Naoto Kan said that many Japanese companies favor the dollar trading around 95 yen and that he will work with the Bank of Japan to get the currency to "appropriate" levels.

--

looking forward to the US nonfarm payrolls on friday

[uls]

check out USD/JPY today

[tidus1203]

Yep mukang the Yen will be floating around the 90's now buti when it hit 85 late last year I sold all my Yen...

Baka balikan ko ito pero baka matagal pa... Pero pustahan tayo di yan babalik lagpas 102...

[uls]

pass 102?

malabo

---

the big story today is the PBoC sold 3-month bills at a higher interest rate

a sign that it is tightening liquidity

the concern is that growth will slow in China... which IS the world's growth engine

SHANGHAI, Jan 7 – China’s central bank surprised the market and raised the auction yield of its three-month bills for the first time since mid-August in its regular open market operation on Thursday, signalling a significant step-up of its tightening of market liquidity.

The People’s Bank of China auctioned 60 billion yuan ($8.8 billion) of three-month bills at a yield of 1.3684 percent, up 4.04 basis points from 1.3280 percent last week and the level that it had kept over the past four months.

[tidus1203]

Well they have a bigger concern. To stop the real estate market frenzy over there. The Chinese are smart they rather have a slowing but ultimately very sustainable growth than have a US style housing bubble that led to what we are facing today!

[uls]

yep

China's central bank to use policy tools to manage inflation, property risks
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...t_12768359.htm

BEIJING, Jan. 7 -- China's central bank Wednesday said it will manage inflation expectations and keep a close watch on the property market through its credit and money supply policies.

In a statement on its website, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it would try to maintain ample liquidity in the financial system, and ask banks to lend more evenly, while strictly implementing credit policies in the property sector.

The nation will also take steps to rein in fast-rising property prices and strengthen credit controls for the sector, according to Housing and Urban-Rural Development Minister Jiang Weixin.

[uls]

price of sugar hits 29-year high

Sugar Extends Rally on Global Supply Concerns; Cocoa Declines
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aze9pGqDncHc

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Sugar rose in New York, extending a rally to the highest price since January 1981, on renewed concern that a global-supply deficit may widen. Cocoa fell.

A sugar shortage in Pakistan has driven retail prices close to a record, and the government has asked domestic mills to discuss plans for imports. Prices at Vashi in Mumbai, India’s biggest wholesale market, rose for the eighth straight session to the highest level since at least July 2005. Futures in New York climbed for the fourth day in a row.

[tidus1203]

Just when everyone is day dreaming that finally the US will stop bleeding jobs and the economy is on the path of real growth... BAM reality hits those daydreamers hard!

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 85,000 jobs in December, government data showed on Friday, cooling optimism on the labor market's recovery and keeping pressure on President Barack Obama.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Econom...&asset=&ccode=

Thus sending the USD falling, bonds rising and stocks falling! ASA PA KAYO!

[uls]

market reaction after the negative jobs report:

USD index


Gold spot


NYMEX crude


knee-jerk reaction in USD and Gold

oil not so much

[uls]

Just when everyone is day dreaming that finally the US will stop bleeding jobs and the economy is on the path of real growth... BAM reality hits those daydreamers hard!



http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Econom...&asset=&ccode=

Thus sending the USD falling, bonds rising and stocks falling! ASA PA KAYO!

yep totally unexpected jobs number

everyone was expecting either no change or a positive number

since the Nov number is -11,000 (revised to +4,000), everyone thought the Dec number would be positive

i admit i was expecting a slightly positive number

even back in Dec, i was thinking the next NFP report could be positive coz of the surprising Nov number

so i became kinda dollar bullish

coz if the Dec jobs number came in positive, that would mean the Fed would raise rates sooner rather than later

which is dollar positive

the Fed will not raise rates until there's significant job creation

so this -85,000 jobs number means the Fed is gonna leave rates as is for quite a while

which is dollar negative

[tidus1203]

Pustahan tayo besides Japan (which is in a 20 year deflation battle, Japan is a prime real life example of the failure of Keynesian economics) the US will be the last to raise rates...

[uls]

ya Japan

even after years of keeping rates extremely low and tons of govt stimulus, they still keep falling into deflation

the Fed will err on the side of inflation rather than risk deflation

the Fed will probably allow inflation to rise dangerously high before raising rates (if they do succeed in creating inflation)

[uls]

heard this news a couple of days ago

Factbox: China becomes the world's No.1 auto market
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60722O20100108

China now top auto market
http://www.detnews.com/article/20100...op-auto-market

Chinese car sales overtake America
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...a-1862550.html

China overtakes US as world's biggest car market
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...ales-overtakes

China Surpasses U.S. in 2009 Auto Sales
http://autos.yahoo.com/articles/auto...009-auto-sales

BEIJING (AP) -- China overtook the United States as the biggest auto market in 2009 and automakers should see more strong growth this year, an industry group reported Friday.

Boosted by Beijing's stimulus, 2009 passenger car sales soared to 10.3 million and total vehicle sales are estimated at 13.6 million, the China Passenger Car Association said. That represents growth of about 45 percent from 2008.

[uls]

dollar falls this morning in Asia

EUR/USD 1.4515

AUD/USD .9313

gold up

oil up

[uls]

biggest market moving news in Asia this morning

China exports

China surpasses Germany as world's top exporter
Washington Post - Steven Mufson - ‎2 hours ago‎

China 'overtakes' Germany to become largest exporter
Independent - James Thompson - ‎2 hours ago‎

China poised to seize world's export crown
China Daily - Ding Qingfen - ‎3 hours ago‎

China overtakes Germany as biggest exporter
CBC.ca - ‎11 hours ago‎

China's export revive, making it largest exporter
The Hindu - Ananth Krishnan - ‎12 hours ago‎

China may become world's top exporter
Economic Times - ‎15 hours ago‎

China stimulus

China Will Likely Spend Full Amount of Stimulus
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9523314

China's government will likely spend the full amount of its planned stimulus in 2010, the finance minister said Sunday, despite improvements in its economy and efforts to control bank lending.

China ramping up budget spending: finance minister
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chi...ter-2010-01-10