World economy talk

[tidus1203]

That will be even more disastrous. Lending should always have RISKS. If you incentivise RISK TAKING, we are going to have an even bigger bubble that the one that just blew up. In fact we still have a credit card bubble but has yet to pop. As I say I know how to spot bubbles, its the timing of when it will burst that is the hard part.

[uls]

They are trying desperately to re-inflate the credit bubble

they will do anything

now they are after the money of savers

the want to force out the money of savers

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madami pa magiging bad loans ang mga bangko

credit card loans, commercial real estate loans, etc

hype lang talaga ang mga profit reports ng mga bangko

if you really read their reports, they are setting aside huge amounts as loan loss reserves

they know madami pa magiging bad loans

[Lucius]

Ang okay nyan dapat lahat ng tao dito satin umutang sa bank tapos wag bayaran para makaganti tayo

[badsekktor]

totoo ba yan? negative interest rate? aba eh ma-withdraw na ang pera sa bangko! pero serious ba sila dito?

[tidus1203]

Its not gonna happen, just some wild imaginations of a desperate central banker.

[uls]

an economist actually

Further down the article, he admits the idea is "outlandish"

he says creating inflation has the same effect as negative interest rates

If all of this seems too outlandish, there is a more prosaic way of obtaining negative interest rates: through inflation. Suppose that, looking ahead, the Fed commits itself to producing significant inflation. In this case, while nominal interest rates could remain at zero, real interest rates — interest rates measured in purchasing power — could become negative. If people were confident that they could repay their zero-interest loans in devalued dollars, they would have significant incentive to borrow and spend.

and he says inflation is better than what's going on now

But there are worse things than inflation. And guess what? We have them today. A little more inflation might be preferable to rising unemployment or a series of fiscal measures that pile on debt bequeathed to future generations.

the scary thing is, Mankiw is very influential

By floating this less than zero interest rate idea, policymakers could actually consider it

[tidus1203]

I would rather have Great Depression II than these crazy ideas they are floating around. NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES, they are seriously undermining the credibility of money as a financial resource...

Basta continue to buy gold even slowly basta accumulate lang on a "IF KAYA" basis...

[Monseratto]

Hmm...markets are going to experience a double dip, led by financials again. Will this do one worse than the first?

[tidus1203]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpCAIFv6t5o&feature=related"]YouTube - Very Funny Commercial: Toyota Prius vs Hyundai Elantra[/ame]

Can't keep up with the Joneses? Now that's trouble!

[Monseratto]

Ok itong Nissan ad...

[uls]

haha nice video

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the banks still stink no matter what profits they report

their balance sheets are ugly

more and more of their assets are turning bad

subprime in 2007 was just the beginning

subprime was the worst... so it had to blow up first

now everything else is blowing up

prime residential, commercial real estate, consumer loans...

the banks will need more capital

this is far from over

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Global debt writedowns may reach $4.1 trln - IMF
http://www.reuters.com/article/gover...00089320090421

WASHINGTON, April 21 (Reuters) - Global write-downs of toxic debt among banks and financial institutions in the United States, Europe and Japan could reach $4.1 trillion, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

This marks the first time the IMF has included estimates of credit losses on debt originated in Japan and Europe since the global financial crisis started in 2007.

[tidus1203]

I am watching Geithner now testifying in Capitol Hill. Hahaha nakakatawa yung plackard sa likod nya may nakasulat "Where's our $?" hahahaha. May silent protest pa pala inside. The testinomy is about the governments TARP plan.

In other news, the two fattest zombies under government care is getting some more food to last a few more months...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GM-Chr...-14984227.html

[uls]

Lenders Set to Get Stress-Test Results on Friday
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124035671205840995.html

WASHINGTON -- Regulators will begin briefing banks Friday about how they fared in government-performed "stress tests," giving lenders an opportunity to debate the findings before they're made public a week later, according to government officials.

The discussions will signal to some banks whether they'll need to seek additional capital, either from private investors or the Treasury Department.

The stress tests seek to measure a bank's ability to continue lending under extreme economic conditions. To help shore up confidence in the banking sector, the government is expected to distinguish between banks that need more capital and those able to withstand a worse and prolonged economic downturn.

Citi will need more capital

if Citi gets another bailout, the USG could remove CEO Pandit

just like what the USG did to GM's CEO

[tidus1203]

Hehehe too bad for Pandit he is just a passenger on a vehicle that is about to crash...

[uls]

stocks were expected to fall last night, after the Dow dropped almost 300 pts. the other night

stocks did open lower last night, but quickly reversed

the Dow ended up +127.83

explaining an irrational market

got this from email, no link

Its the big money players who have all but given up longer term investing, and now have resorted to swing trading, or sometimes even daytrading huge positions. Aggressive players gaming the 3x ETF's are wreaking havoc on everybody, so the momentum gunners are buying anything and everything that is moving up, and shorting everything else.

momentum trading is the game

buy anything going up

fast money rules the market

hit and run

no more buy and hold

Its all about how fast they can scalp a trade, doing their hit and runs. Losses are cut immediately if a trade goes bad. And instead of stepping aside, they reverse the position to try to "catch up" from their losses by taking the other side of the trade.

this one explains the rally last night:

Millions must have shorted in the morning, and when they found out they were wrong, they immediately switched the shorts to longs. Viola!! A 20% intraday ramp job!!!!

i don't know if this is serious... but it is amusing --

They are up against are "Fast Money" hedge funds who employ 17-year old Sony PS3 and XBox gaming champs with ultra-fast reflexes. Just juice them up in the morning with some Red Bull and Monster Energy, put them in front of a 6 monitor trading platform, and simply give them a gaming console and tell them to "follow the price" like instructing a greyhound to follow a meatball.

Its really gotten down to that. Huge block trades going off using the shortest of timeframes. Losses to be cut immediately if a trade goes bad. Margined positions to be loaded as fast as possible when a trend is in place where shorts are being run out of a stock.

if you have slow reflexes, you wouldnt want to be in this market

you're up against 17 year old champion gamers loaded up with Red Bull

hehe

[tidus1203]

Thats why I still play Xbox and PS3 hehehehe... Lalo na sa forex tirador talaga dapat. Hit and run. Meron ding akong long term trades pero its the daily trades that make me busy hehehe

[tidus1203]

Grabe sarap ng galaw ng British Pound today... Likot, very ripe for day trading...

Anyway, news time!

MS losses are worse than expected. They got hit by commerical real estate loans, they will cut their dividend. The markets is slipping after a barrage of bad earnings from multiple companies from multiple industires. From Altria (for people not familiar with the stock market its Philip Morris to you) to Boeing...

Also, Freddie Mac CFO David Kellermann comitted suicide. I am not surprised, but I think he should have just resigned...

[uls]

yep

poor MS... di sya kasali sa Happy Bank Club

[uls]

Japan's trade surplus vanishes

now imports greater than exports

Japan's trade surplus dives 99% in March as exports plunge

Last update: 8:18 p.m. EDT April 21, 2009
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Japan's trade surplus shriveled by 99% in March from the year-earlier month as exports tumbled even more rapidly than the sharp decline in imports, official data showed Wednesday. The trade surplus for the month was 10.96 billion yen ($109.6 million), compared with 1.1 trillion yen in March 2008, according to provisional figures. Despite the small surplus in March, Japan's trade balance for the year ended March 31 showed a deficit of 725.3 billion yen, the country's first trade deficit in 28 years, according to Kyodo news service. Japanese exports dropped 16.4%to 71.1 trillion yen, while imports narrowed 4.1% to 71.9 trillion yen.

Japan is so screwed

[tidus1203]

GM is now closing almost all its manufacturing plants for NINE WEEKS this coming summer. Its because their inventories are building up and they are producing much faster than they are selling it out. The free markets at work, demand goes down naturally supply has to match it. Government intervention to create artificial demand = FAIL!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Source...&asset=&ccode=