World economy talk

[frenchtower]

Where is gold headed in 2010? Any predictions? For a while I thought it's upward momentum is unstoppable after it broke the $1k/oz. I'm still hoping it will breach the $1.5k resistance someday.

[uls]

Citi CEO Vikram Pandit recent email to Citi employees

Dear Colleagues,

Today, we announced a series of transactions to repay the $20 billion of TARP outstanding and terminate the asset guarantee we received from the U.S. government. The Treasury also announced its intention to sell its ownership in Citi stock in the coming months. These actions bring us closer to ending a very difficult period for our company, and we owe the U.S. taxpayers and the government a debt of gratitude for their extraordinary assistance.

That we are here is a testament to your hard work and accomplishments in getting our house in order. Today we are strongly capitalized, efficient, focused on our clients with a clear strategy for the future. With your commitment and dedication, we have created a strong foundation for the future.

Our goals near term are clear: to achieve sustained profitability and to promote economic recovery by lending, keeping people in their homes, and helping clients with their needs. There are still economic challenges ahead that require your continued focus on clients and disciplined execution.

Over the past few months, I have visited many of you in the U.S. and around the world. I am continually impressed by the depth and breadth of talent we have at Citi. I am also very touched by your efforts to help customers and families in need and the communities of which we are a part.
Thank you for all you do every day for our clients, customers, communities and Citi. I am very proud of your accomplishments.

Vikram

decode:

Citigroup: “Today we announced a series of transactions to repay the $20B of TARP outstanding and terminate the asset guarantee we received from the U.S. Government.”
Translation: I am sick of working for $1 per year.

Citigroup: “Today we are strongly capitalized….”
Translation: We have diluted the shareholders by a factor of six.

Citigroup: “…efficient…”
Translation: We have cut the company in half.

Citigroup: “…and created a strong foundation for the future.”
Translation: We are working on a strategy.

Citigroup: “There are still economic challenges ahead…”
Translation: Forget about any kind of bonus.

Citigroup: “Over the past few months, I have visited many of you in the U.S. and around the world…”
Translation: I am trying to avoid the home office.

Citigroup: “Thank you for all you do every day for our clients, customers, communities, and Citi.”
Translation: Common shareholder? Hello? Dilution of 83% is the inverse of a factor of six.

[uls]

Where is gold headed in 2010? Any predictions? For a while I thought it's upward momentum is unstoppable after it broke the $1k/oz. I'm still hoping it will breach the $1.5k resistance someday.

it all depends on the USD

gold has been going in opposite direction of the USD

the strong upward momentum in gold a few weeks back reminded me of the strong upward momentum in oil in 1H 2008 (USD value falling during those uptrends)

i'm beginning to think the $1200+ peak in gold a few weeks ago is equivalent to the $147/barrel peak in oil in July 2008

oil and gold are the 2 most used hedges against falling USD

this year, oil was exploited first by speculators (strong upward momentum in oil from a 2009 low of $33 all the way to a high of $82 without fundamentals to support the price)

then oil lost momentum (can't hold above $80)

the momentum went to gold

[uls]

U.S. delays its $5 billion Citi sale after weak pricing

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury delayed a plan to sell its $5 billion of Citigroup Inc shares after a stock offering by the bank attracted weak demand and priced at a much lower-than-expected $3.15 a share.

Citi pushed it

they wanted to exit TARP too badly

a huge $20.5B share offering

and the US Treasury Department will also sell its own Citi shares

the market became flooded with Citi stock

sending the stock price falling

now the US Treasury decides to hold on to its Citi shares to avoid selling at a loss

FAIL

[boybi]

Will the Citigroup go into bankcruptcy?

[tidus1203]

No! Don't be mistaken Citigroup is still very very fragile but the stock fire sale won't really affect it very much. Maybe its investors! Poor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, owns a lot of this crap!

[uls]

poor Citi shareholders

raped

i mean totally diluted

Citi still has TONS of bad assets

IMHO, they exited TARP too early

pinilit nila coz they cannot pay themselves big bonuses while partly owned by the USG

if they get into trouble again, the USG might not help them na

[uls]

USD index



oil gains momentum

NYMEX crude



Gold

[uls]

last night, the USD index went above 78

keeping oil below $75

-

notice when the USD index spiked to 78

USD index


at the same time, a sharp drop in oil

NYMEX crude


-

if it wasn't for the USD, oil price would have gone higher coz of Iran occupying an Iraq oil well

2nd UPDATE:Iranian Forces Occupy Iraq Oil Well -Iraqi Officials
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...18-713550.html

Iranian forces have occupied a southern Iraqi oil well in a disputed section of the border after opening fire against Iraqi oil workers, an official from state-run Missan Oil Co. told Dow Jones Newswires.

"Two weeks ago around 10 to 11 Iranian troops occupied well 4 in al-Fukka oil field after Iraqi oil workers started work in the well near the border," the official who is familiar with the story said.

[uls]

a few pages back, i kept saying the short USD trade has become too overcrowded

it's bound to reverse sooner or later

you can't have everyone on 1 side of the boat

now the shorts have run for cover

the chart below shows a huge reduction in total net short positions on the USD

[tidus1203]

It gives opportunity for people to ride the DOLLAR TO HELL EXPRESS a chance to ride at a better ticket price! Those who are serious about the long term decline of the USD can use corrections like this as a chance to get in...

Why is this a correction and not reversal? SPEED! If its fast, its likely a correction...

[uls]

i would watch the European Monetary Union closely

a number of EMU countries are in danger of default

big problem for the ECB in 2010 and further out

[uls]

cool

Darth Vader rang the opening bell at the NYSE last night

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLRPGJ8sDbU"]YouTube- Raw Video: Darth Vader Opens Wall Street[/ame]

[tidus1203]

Why is Lucasarts going puclic?

[uls]

di yata

looks like it was just a visit

to remind investors who is really in control of the market

hehe

[uls]

Merry Christmas!

while we were all busy attending parties...

in just 2 trading days, oil went past $75... $76... $77... and closed at $78

NYMEX crude


USD loses momentum

USD index falls below 78

USD index

[tidus1203]

Pero its on thin volume... Price movements at these times until the end of the year tend to be very unreliable...

[tidus1203]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...eb1eL4qg&pos=1

China will be the world's second largest economy by next year. With China's recently released GDP figures they only lag Japan $300B in total economic activity. Sisiw na lang yan...

[uls]

happy new year

first trading day for 2010

oil passes $81 in NY

after passing $80 this morning in Asia

NYMEX crude


gold rallies too

gold spot

[uls]

totally unexpected result from the 1 month t-bill auction last night



huge demand despite expectations to the opposite

$88B tendered, $16B accepted --- amazing bid-to-cover ratio of 5.5

high rate 0.025%, low rate 0.000% --- huge demand for something that yields zero

and we thought risk taking was back