Things you need to know before idolizing marcos

[[archie]]

We already tackled the fact that debt is not a good and bad always scenario. Why do you think the international community were giving us cash? Truth is there was rapid industrialization was happening all around.

Again, let's take China. In 1958 to 1961, Mao Zedong launched an socioeconomic campaign called the "Great Leap Forward" with the hopes of transforming the farmers into an industrial powerhouse. This campaign was often cited for human rights violations on a scale of millions with the famine claiming a toll of 18-45 million. Similarly in real GDP %, it was a whopping -27% and -5%. Imagine your GDP chopped off by a third.

But the years afterwards as China instituted reforms that once weak economy transformed into a global powerhouse. Now that is with vision. Look at Mao Zedong.. his critics view him as the principle person who initiated mass genocide, nationwide human rights abuses, forced labor, etc. but what do the younger generation view him? They highly regard him as one of the most important individuals in Chinese history and crediting him in building China into a superpower to be reckoned with.

Marcos.. well.. we can say he mismanaged, people disliked him, and now he's viewed as somebody equal to Hitler probably. But what if he succeeds? History is on your side.. no doubt about that because what's done is done. We can judge because we already seen the grass, but what if the grass is greener on the other side?

If you want to bet on it, go to China. Ask people around what they view Mao Zedong as.. and I'll bet a million pesos that he's more revered than hated. Funny as it is, atrocities are forgiven when the good justifies the bad. That's how ironic mankind is. But if growth translates into food on the table.. hell yeah.. who cares.

Let's stick to Marcos. Debt is not good or bad?

bankrupt central bank, massive inflation, us exchange more than 500% peso depreciation, minimal employment. Yeah debt is not good or bad.

All of these for infrastructure with no ROI in anyway. Iikot lang tayo sa "look at the other countries".

Let's point it to evidences, how is our country now after Marcos? It will still boil down "are we better off". Just look at the numbers first of the Philippines economy before and after. No more "what if".

[confused shoes]

Key here is non existent ang law dati. Pinatay ng police ngayon (at nahuli) ang tao na walang ginagawa, tanggal sa trabaho at may kaso. Dati damputin ang tao na walang ginagawa, ok lang nakangti pa police. All you can do is turn around.

Sir [archie], at least dati pulis ang tumitira. Ngayon pulis na ang tinitira.

[[archie]]

Sir [archie], at least dati pulis ang tumitira. Ngayon pati pulis tinitira.

O god... Does that make things better then?

[confused shoes]

Just look at the numbers first of the Philippines economy before and after. No more "what if".

Parang karera lang bike yan, sir,
Pinagkaisaahan si Macoy, naipit natumba so out sya sa race. Kaya ang hypothesis is "if" lang talaga.

Parang kang bumili ng taxi, inilagay mo naman sa garahe. Hindi mo talaga ma ROI yan.

[jhnkvn]

Let's stick to Marcos. Debt is not good or bad?

bankrupt central bank, massive inflation, us exchange more than 500% peso depreciation, minimal employment. Yeah debt is not good or bad.

All of these for infrastructure with no ROI in anyway. Iikot lang tayo sa "look at the other countries".

Let's point it to evidences, how is our country now after Marcos? It will still boil down "are we better off". Just look at the numbers first of the Philippines economy before and after. No more "what if".

Iniipit mo ako archie since Marcos never finished his term. It's like pinning somebody down of "investing" millions of pesos via implementing a SAP project that wasn't finished because of an untimely death of the project head. The infrastructure was there.. and I answered that: that the country will be be better off if Marcos was still President instead of having four regimes.

It wasn't a question of current historical figures but I defended my answer of what-ifs. And this is well within the thread context of the topic itself. The fact is that the country floundered without a vision. Blundered.. not regressed.. but blundered under eras of questioned policies and projects. If you were to think about it on a very negative scale.. it has in fact regressed - OFWs were flocking out of the country, brain drain was evident, education budget declined with respect to GDP, and our political dynasties ruled the country. The graft of one party went into the pockets of many with many promising countrymen succumbing to systemic graft.

As a decision maker, you always have to weigh the opportunity cost of one decision with the other decision. Just because you can't compute it doesn't mean you disregard its value.

* For example, how India floundered its grain decision (Golden Rice opposition cost*$2b and 1.4m ?life years? over 10 years in India alone | Genetic Literacy Project)

If you want a solution, then do a partial default. Investor confidence? There's already none during those period of mass political turmoil. Not just a debt restructure but a partial default. Do it how Greece did and eat the bitter pill. Do it how Argentina, how Brazil, how Taiwan had.

Unfortunately, no President wants to bite the bitter pill because it tarnishes their reputation come the writing of the history books.

I dislike the past but I dislike how our future turned out to be like too. So we go to the analogy of maybe.. the grass really is greener on the other side.

[confused shoes]

O god... Does that make things better then?

That means, the pulis of today are even worse. Hindi yan titirahin kung mabuting pulis.

Or kung babaligtarin natin, mas maraming criminal ngayon na ayaw sa mabuting pulis.

[[archie]]

Parang karera lang bike yan, sir,
Pinagkaisaahan si Macoy, naipit natumba so out sya sa race. Kaya ang hypothesis is "if" lang talaga.

Parang kang bumili ng taxi, inilagay mo naman sa garahe. Hindi mo talaga ma ROI yan.

Iniipit mo ako archie since Marcos never finished his term. It's like pinning somebody down of "investing" millions of pesos via implementing a SAP project that wasn't finished because of an untimely death of the project head. The infrastructure was there.. and I answered that: that the country will be be better off if Marcos was still President instead of having four regimes.

It wasn't a question of current historical figures but I defended my answer of what-ifs. And this is well within the thread context of the topic itself. The fact is that the country floundered without a vision. Blundered.. not regressed.. but blundered under eras of questioned policies and projects. If you were to think about it on a very negative scale.. it has in fact regressed - OFWs were flocking out of the country, brain drain was evident, education budget declined with respect to GDP, and our political dynasties ruled the country. The graft of one party went into the pockets of many with many promising countrymen succumbing to systemic graft.

As a decision maker, you always have to weigh the opportunity cost of one decision with the other decision. Just because you can't compute it doesn't mean you disregard its value.

* For example, how India floundered its grain decision (Golden Rice opposition cost*$2b and 1.4m ?life years? over 10 years in India alone | Genetic Literacy Project)

If you want one way to look at it, then do a partial default. Investor confidence? There's already none during those period of mass political turmoil.

Same thing I would reply to both. Kelan end ng term niya? When he dies? The snap election was a forced choice for him to quiet his critics. In turn he tried manipulate results. Comelec employees walked out.

Where is the "finish line" of a bike race?

edit: you claim that the infrastructure will make money for the country, how? No ROI in sight. After 28 years, dapat yung iba ng projects niya early on have some economical impact, instead the country was still going down... Year on year.

You say your an investor. Where do you rely on decision making? Historical facts, bench marking, etc. What's the historical basis?

[[archie]]

That means, the pulis of today are even worse. Hindi yan titirahin kung mabuting pulis.

Or kung babaligtarin natin, mas maraming criminal ngayon na ayaw sa mabuting pulis.

What?

Kakaiba. Police during the Marcos era did what ever they want. No fear of prosecution.

[jhnkvn]

Same thing I would reply to both. Kelan end ng term niya? When he dies? The snap election was a forced choice for him to quiet his critics. In turn he tried manipulate results. Comelec employees walked out.

Where is the "finish line" of a bike race?

edit: you claim that the infrastructure will make money for the country, how? No ROI in sight. After 28 years, dapat yung iba ng projects niya early on have some economical impact, instead the country was still going down... Year on year.

You say your an investor. Where do you rely on decision making? Historical facts, bench marking, etc. What's the historical basis?

Who knows when the finish line is. I mean, being convicted of plunder and pardoned did not deter Erap from running for the highest position in the land again (and nearly win by the way).

How do you measure ROI of projects? How do you measure the ROI of road access? the cultural impact of the CCP? the drainage works done during his time? What about the educational funding with respect to GDP? There were some ROI that aren't even given a chance to earn its rate of return such as the BNPP project.

As an investor, you typically look at two things: is it of value and is the management good? You can bleed cash and people are still going to believe you because you have a vision. Mr. Market won't care of your historicals.. if any S&P 500 CEO says "i dunno what to do" at their annual meeting expect all panic to break loose. Look at Tesla's market capitalization which was more than Fiat S.p.A and how many Tesla Model S have they sold to justify that? But if you short-sell then.. you would be sitting at a 70% decline right now. Tesla is Elon Musk. Elon Musk is Tesla and Elon Musk has vision. I still remember writing a PM to uls about it actually...

Let's say you did a partial default. Do you think the market will shun you completely? The answer is no. Look at Greece. Look at Argentina. It's not like you do defaults like every year right? An investor invests on the basis of promise of future profits. It's never about the current.. it's about the future.

Why do you think some hedge funds had great performances in 2012? Some of them bet that Greece will rise again after the first tranche of bail-out money and that bet paid off handsomely with a 80% return. Remember.. Greece had skyrocketing unemployment, the government was deep in red.. negative GDP.. and government sacrificed a lot of capital expenditures to contract the economy for fiscal "discipline" as conditions. Sure, you get single/double-digit negatives for a while.. but Greece is better now than it was when the crisis began all because they took the bitter pill before they enjoyed.

Eh tayo? Won't you argue that rather than using 50% of the budget to repay debt it's better to appropriate these to education, infrastructure, etc.? We weren't massive importers during the Marcos regime yet.. our balance of trade was negative but.. it wasn't "damn, that's huge."

Gloria passed an expanded VAT bill and was heavily ridiculed by the nation. "Corruption lang yan", "Bat ko pa kilangan magbayad ng masmadami" but amongst economic circles, that 2% additional is huge when it comes to buffering the US economic slowdown. A lot has pointed that Aquino's current GDP figures are the result of fiscally correct but unpopular movements of his predecessor -- corruption or not.

[[archie]]

Who knows when the finish line is. I mean, being convicted of plunder and pardoned did not deter Erap from running for the highest position in the land again (and nearly win by the way).

How do you measure ROI of projects? How do you measure the ROI of road access? the cultural impact of the CCP? the drainage works done during his time? What about the educational funding with respect to GDP? There were some ROI that aren't even given a chance to earn its rate of return such as the BNPP project.

As an investor, you typically look at two things: is it of value and is the management good? You can bleed cash and people are still going to believe you because you have a vision. Mr. Market won't care of your historicals.. if any S&P 500 CEO says "i dunno what to do" at their annual meeting expect all panic to break loose. Look at Tesla's market capitalization which was more than Fiat S.p.A and how many Tesla Model S have they sold to justify that? But if you short-sell then.. you would be sitting at a 70% decline right now. Tesla is Elon Musk. Elon Musk is Tesla and Elon Musk has vision. I still remember writing a PM to uls about it actually...

Let's say you did a partial default. Do you think the market will shun you completely? The answer is no. Look at Greece. Look at Argentina. It's not like you do defaults like every year right? An investor invests on the basis of promise of future profits. It's never about the current.. it's about the future.

Why do you think some hedge funds had great performances in 2012? Some of them bet that Greece will rise again after the first tranche of bail-out money and that bet paid off handsomely with a 80% return. Remember.. Greece had skyrocketing unemployment, the government was deep in red.. negative GDP.. and government sacrificed a lot of capital expenditures to contract the economy for fiscal "discipline" as conditions. Sure, you get single/double-digit negatives for a while.. but Greece is better now than it was when the crisis began all because they took the bitter pill before they enjoyed.

Eh tayo?

"who knows when the finish line is"

umm... Remember the videos that Marcos put out? He was healthy and all that crap. He has no intention of giving up power.

"value of management is good"

hmm let's see, from less than 1b debt to a whopping 28b. Good management? If the country was a public company would you bet on it? No dividends, massive debts, personal gain of the ceo is massive. Value of assets going down the drain. Your treasury has no money to pay debts,