Oil Price Watch

[Ry_Tower]

brent above $118

brent-wti spread $22

Bakit ba hindi pa lumalapit spread. Hindi ba may na-open nang new pipeline sa US?

[uls]

the Seaway pipeline expansion was supposed to move more oil from Cushing to the Gulf coast reducing oil inventory at Cushing.but that isnt happening

oil stockpiles still increasing

the capacity of the pipeline doesnt seem to be big enough

there's just too much oil flowing into Cushing

then there's refinery shutdowns (less demand for cruide)

that puts pressure on WTI

BNO (Brent ETF) and USO (WTI ETF) diverge

[uls]

refinery shutdowns mean less supply of products

wholesale gasoline

[Ry_Tower]

Reasons why oil continue to rise as per MSN.

1. Optimism that economies globally will do better than expected, particularly the United States.
2. Continued worries about protests and terror attacks in North Africa and the Middle East. The civil war in Syria and worries about Iran are playing a role in the oil-price run-up.

Also is it possible that production cost is also high.

[uls]

1. Optimism that economies globally will do better than expected, particularly the United States.

money flowing into risk assets

[uls]

Also is it possible that production cost is also high.

production cost varies

Saudi breakeven price is around $80

Russia around $100

-------------

with regard to benchmark price Brent below $90 is unacceptable

[Ry_Tower]

Can oil futures trading be stopped?

It seems that is whats really pushing price of oil. Can't we allow oil companies to dictate price of oil so that at least there is a chance competition will drive the price of oil nearer to production cost (of course other overhead expense will be taken into consideration).

[Monseratto]

Fuel prices increase across the board | Motoring | InterAksyon.com

Fuel prices increase across the board
Euan Paulo C. Anonuevo, InterAksyon.com · Tuesday, February 12, 2013 · 12:28 pm

MANILA, Philippines — (UPDATED 11:35 p.m.) Retail prices of fuel products will increase tomorrow morning.

In separate text messages, Pilipinas Shell Petroleum Corp and Petron Corp announced the following adjustments:

- P1.20 per liter for unleaded/premium gasoline, diesel and kerosene; and

- P1.10 per liter for regular gasoline.

Shell and Petron said the price adjustments will take effect 6 a.m. of February 12.

“This reflects movements in the international oil market,” Petron said.

Other oil companies have yet to announce similar adjustments, but they usually track each other as the country imports 90 percent of its fuel requirements.

Earlier today, the Department of Energy hinted that an increase is likely this week given increasing demand in the world market as well as tight supply of ethanol as other countries mandate higher blends.

[uls]

ICE Brent Oil Money Managers Held 227,332 Long Futures Positions - Bloomberg

Feb 11, 2013 7:52 PM GMT+0800
Hedge funds and other money managers held 227,332 contracts as long positions in Brent crude oil futures in the week ended Feb. 5, according to data from ICE Futures Europe. A week earlier the long position stood at 214,886 contracts, for futures only.

Bullish bets on Brent at new record - gas oil jumps 38 percent | Tradingfloor.com

Hedge funds and other money managers raised their net-long position on Brent crude oil to a new two-year high for the third week in a row according to data from the ICE Europe Exchange covering the week ending 5 February.

During the week the net-long jumped by 12,460 contracts of futures and options to reach a total of 192,195 which is the highest level recorded since the exchange began recording this data on 1 January 2011. Gas oil net-longs jumped by 38 percent to 92,043 almost exceeding the record from last September.

[uls]

wti dumped

[Ry_Tower]

Parang $118 ang maintaining price ng Brent futures ah

[uls]

brent-wti spread $22

[uls]

here's something that backs up what i've been posting since forever

that the price of oil is determined by factors beyond supply and demand

and the latest run-up in the price of oil, i said, is caused by the risk-on trade (money rushing into risk assets like equities, oil futures)

The S&P 500 And Brent Oil Are Basically The Same Market | iStockAnalyst.com

The first thing you have to realize about markets is that they are crooked. If you believe the price of oil has anything to do with the stuff that comes out of the ground, then I have some nice beachfront property in Louisiana for you.

It is all about the juice, whether it is 401k money coming in the beginning of each month, Central Bank injections, share buybacks, increasing leverage ratios, or currency funding the initial money has to be there in what I call the juice for markets, and I mean all markets.

This is why before and during almost any major up move in markets traders go to the EUR/USD and USD/JPY funding crosses for the juice to propel the move. It all starts with the juice, that is what determines price in markets.

^^^

anyone noticed i've been following USDJPY very closely in the other thread?

that's where the "juice" is coming from

This is why the S&P 500 has stalled for a couple days; traders are waiting for the next juice injection into markets. There would have to be some ‘crazy good' news for firms to extend their leverage ratios at this point, so they wait for the next big fed injection, major currency move, or 401k money for their next major move up in markets.

Finally, those traders who think they are trading oil, you are actually trading the S&P 500, for all intents and purposes, it is the very same liquidity fueled market.

6 month S&P 500 & Brent

[uls]

US stocks rally

speculators pile into WTI



UPDATE 7-Oil rises, following U.S. equities higher | Reuters

NEW YORK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Tuesday as traders grew bullish amid a rally in U.S. stock markets, even as U.S. pipeline bottlenecks and European economic concerns threatened to weigh on oil markets.

U.S. crude for March delivery rose 80 cents to settle at $96.66 a barrel. The March contract expires on Wednesday.

fundamentals?

what fundamentals?

"Oil traders see the rise in equities and decide to buy oil too," said Tim Evans, analyst at Citi Futures in New York. "Some might expect more oil demand driven by the equities rally. But it's likely a correlated trade flow that isn't based on oil market analysis."

[Ry_Tower]

Nagtaas na naman fuel prices locally sa mga gas stations.

[uls]

brent lost momentum at $118

speculators reduce long positions

Hedge Funds Cut ICE Brent Crude Net-Longs From Two-Year High - Bloomberg

Hedge funds and other money managers reduced bullish bets on Brent crude from their highest level in more than two years, the first cut in a month, according to data from ICE Futures Europe.

Speculative bets that prices will increase, in futures and options combined, outnumbered short positions by 192,154 lots in the week ended Feb. 12, the London-based exchange said today in its weekly Commitment of Traders report. While that’s little changed from 192,195 a week earlier, the reduction of 41 lots is the first decline since Jan. 15.

[uls]

selloff last night in the commodities complex

gold fell far below $1,600



then carried over into oil

Oil futures settle lower, failing to reverse late-morning drop - Oil | Platts News Article & Story

"Gold and silver were hit before oil, so some psychology could be carrying over from there," Phil Flynn, commodities analyst at Price Futures Group, said.

high volume selloff in WTI



then Brent

Both contracts fell sharply around 11:00 a.m. EST (1600 GMT) as a surge in trading volume prompted markets to tick sharply downward. The March NYMEX crude contract fell 70 cents between 11:00 a.m. and 11:02 a.m. EST, before hitting its session low of $93.92/b at 11:07 a.m. EST.

Front-month Brent plunged more than $1.70/b in 10 minutes of trading, as trading volume on both crude contracts shot up sharply.

Analysts said that the drop was led by a sharp move in NYMEX crude, which carried over in to the ICE Brent contract and then further in to the product markets.

selloff caused by hedge fund liquidation of long positions

Analysts suggested that the sharp move downward was due to some combination of position liquidation and technical selloff, although evidence of either remained thin as trading continued in to the afternoon and volume dropped off. While both crude contracts bounced back slightly in the afternoon trading session, sources said that overall sentiment generally bearish after mixed economic data out of Europe and the US.

[renzo_d10]

I can smell a rollback in prices if the trend doesn't change

[Ry_Tower]

^ oo, laki ng binaba eh. almost 3 points down.

[Chikselog]

Kahit bumaba pa yan asahan nyong sentimos lang ibababa ng gas dito satin. Taas piso mahigit, rollback bentsingko.