Oil Price Watch

[glenn manikis]

happy new year!

brent $112

galing mo sir....

[uls]

http://seawaypipeline.com/news/20130102PressRelease.pdf

SEAWAY PIPELINE EXPANSION NEARING COMPLETION

Houston, Texas (January 2, 2013) – Seaway Crude Oil Pipeline Company LLC announced
today that final work is being performed in preparation for the increase in capacity from approximately
150,000 barrels per day (“BPD”) to approximately 400,000 BPD. In order to complete the remaining
pump station connections, transportation service has been suspended on the 500-mile, 30-inch diameter
pipeline and is expected to resume operations at full rates by the end of next week.

the pipeline runs between Cushing and the Gulf Coast

the pipeline expansion is complete

Oil Rises to Four-Month High on Seaway Restart - Bloomberg

Oil rose to the highest level in almost four months as service began on the expanded Seaway pipeline and heating oil jumped.

Futures advanced 0.6 percent after Seaway resumed service to the Gulf Coast from Cushing, Oklahoma, on Jan. 11. The line’s increased capacity of 400,000 barrels a day may help ease a glut at Cushing that has held down prices of West Texas Intermediate crude. Heating oil climbed the most in nearly two months on forecasts for cold weather in the East Coast and Midwest.

the pipeline will drain more oil from Cushing.

the persistently high supply at Cushing made WTI irrelevant as a global oil pricing benchmark

if they can drain more oil out of Cushing WTI will rise which would narrow Brent-WTI spread

probably make WTI relevant again

[Ry_Tower]

Nagbabadya ah.

[Ry_Tower]

Nag-price increase na dito.

Brent hovering at $113 pa din.

[uls]

market is bullish

believes financial crisis is over

money rushing into risk assets since the beginning of the year

they call it the great rotation -- money moving out of bonds



into equities

[uls]

wti

[uls]

so how tight is the correlation between oil and stocks?

here's oil represented by USO (the ETF that tracks the performance of WTI) compared to the S&P 500 index

[uls]

wholesale non-oxygenated gasoline

[Ry_Tower]

Brace for more price increase. Bad US economy figures from q4 and recent strike of Israel to syria may have spiked oil prices.

[uls]

actually the lower-than-expected US Q4 GDP number held back gains. if it wasnt for that oil prices would be even higher

--

oil is a risk asset like stocks. oil has been following stocks higher

if based on fundamentals the price of oil should be lower. there's a lot of oil out there (OPEC and non-OPEC)

[Ry_Tower]

actually the lower-than-expected US Q4 GDP number held back gains. if it wasnt for that oil prices would be even higher

--

oil is a risk asset like stocks. oil has been following stocks higher

if based on fundamentals the price of oil should be lower. there's a lot of oil out there (OPEC and non-OPEC)

Ah okay, so demand (as a risk asset)for it actually increased that is why price is going up. Did I egt it right?

[uls]

but not demand for physical oil

global oil consumption didnt suddenly surge at the beginning of the year

the buying is taking place in paper oil (futures)

[Ry_Tower]

but not demand for physical oil

global oil consumption didnt suddenly surge at the beginning of the year

the buying is taking place in paper oil (futures)

Yup, that's what I meant (oil futures). Thanks.

[mateomarco]

Nagtaas na naman effective today? How much?

[Gumusut_Amige]

before when $ exchange rate can't hold... these key players are using as a leverage to jack up prices.
really dont know now if this is still part of the equation as the $ is at all time low vs the dear peso.

[Ry_Tower]

Nagtaas na naman effective today? How much?

.45 sa diesel, .50 sa gas dito sa amin iirc.

[uls]

so much for narrowing Brent-WTI spread

it's now $20

[uls]

brent above $117

[Ry_Tower]

brent above $117

Price increase na naman yan!

[uls]

brent above $118

brent-wti spread $22