Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

[frustratedriver]

MOD's NOTE:

All weather related posts moved to this thread.

[Jun aka Pekto]

Another forecast is out.....

Current conditions:
RPLL 271700Z 14004KT 8000 -RA SCT023 OVC090 25/25 Q1005 CONTUS LGT RA RMK A2968

24-hour forecast:
RPLL 271700Z 2718/2818 20008KT 9000 SCT023 BKN100 TX31/2806Z TN25/2721Z
TEMPO 2718/2724 14005KT 8000 -RA SCT022 BKN090

That's more like it. At least now I see a reason for a TEMPO condition (the wind shift and light rain).

If people want to see some computer forecast models, here's one....

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/m...K_PRECIP_WINDS

[Hanren]

We have new storms coming. This was taken from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. (URL: http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php)

Tropical Depression 18 is still way out of the Pacific



Tropical Depression 10 jis just south of Guam


Things can still change this early. Just pray that these storms change course, or just dissipate.

[ghosthunter]

Up to date satellite weather:
http://www.weather.com/maps/geograph...dex_large.html

Up to date satellite weather: (animated)
http://www.weather.com/maps/geograph..._animated.html

PAGASA:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

[KERSMcRae]

Up to date satellite weather:
http://www.weather.com/maps/geograph...dex_large.html

Up to date satellite weather: (animated)
http://www.weather.com/maps/geograph..._animated.html

PAGASA:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

dito ko na lang i-add ang link ng ibang reference: HTH

[SIZE=3]http://www.typhoon2000.ph/[/SIZE]

[_Cathy_]

It's Category 4 - 240 kph. I think the last typhoon we had above 200kph was Milenyo.

[Lucius]

Get ready for Pepe...ng

[niky]

Category 5 na daw?

Winds of 240... gustiness of... gads... I don't even want to look...

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1045522435538

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapc...rma/index.html

[Monseratto]

[Retz]

sana lumihis at upwards lang direction ng tropical storm.

[greenlyt]

19.7 deg C * 6AM thursday, coldest so far this year
Thursday was coldest morning in Metro this year | Inquirer News

[Retz]

19.7 deg C * 6AM thursday, coldest so far this year
Thursday was coldest morning in Metro this year | Inquirer News

yes, hindi na ako mag bubukas ng aircon.

[ghosthunter]

Notice the two dots near Guam... those are headed our way

[Jun aka Pekto]

Notice the two dots near Guam... those are headed our way

The GFS models have the first one lingering off the east coast of Luzon for a short time before veering north and northeastward. The second one will veer northeast while still far to the east. A frontal band over Japan stretching back southward will ensure there's too much shear aloft for the two systems to develop into typhoons. The rain amount is still a question mark. The models indicate ~10" of rain over a 6-day duration. Nothing alarming. The model may not be ideal for typhoons...

Of course, I'm looking at raw products. I have no access to product quirks peculiar to there and rules of thumbs tailored for the Philippines. Those are normally found at local weather stations. So, any forecasts I make probably will be totally out to lunch. That's why most forecasters outside normally go with whatever the home team says. Still, what remains consistent in the model runs over the next few days will give a good guess on what will eventually happen.

[redorange]

Hopeful the these don't develop into anything stronger than a banana storm and die when it gets close to Guam, and that the big one for this season is already done with Typhoon Choi Wan that missed Japan. That was a category 4, nobody needs another one of those anywhere in the Pacific. Although that one in Kwajalein doesn't look good since Super Typhoon Paka came from there in 1997.

Here people are just waiting for another big one because it's been 7 years since the last category 4/5 Super Typhoons. In the 90's we had 3 category 4/5 within 7 years and two came on consecutive years (91 Yuri, 92 Omar, 97 Paka w/235mph gust). Living without electricity for 6 months and water for 3 months became a norm and people made do with what they had.

[Lucius]

Sabi ni BF, dahil daw sa basura and squatters kaya nagbaha. Pero inako nya responsibility.

Squatters talaga. Nag-squat na nga dumagdag pa sa problema.

[ghosthunter]

Sabi ni BF, dahil daw sa basura and squatters kaya nagbaha. Pero inako nya responsibility.

Squatters talaga. Nag-squat na nga dumagdag pa sa problema.

Squatters add to the problem simply by being in places where they shouldn't be. They build houses on the river banks, etc.

[Retz]

Lakas ng ulan inabutan na naman ako ng baha.

[Red Advent 04]

Tanghali na pero medyo makulimlim padin..sana wag umulan diz wikend para maka byahe ng cebu..

[baludoy]

it's drizzling! masarap na respite 'to sa init these past few days