Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

[_Cathy_]

I think she's asking who is in charge.

It is definitely not the president haha

I think it's the optics, when Yolanda was on its way. Pnoy addresses the nation about the incoming super typhoon. Yun lang yata hinihingi ni cathy.


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Yeah. Nung Yolanda I was abroad but I knew about it and my friends were all talking about it. If it weren't for Tsikot wala din ako alam na this is a super super typhoon. Yung fish/seafood guy namin nag deliver pa kanina [emoji23]

May signal 5 pala? Kasi nung grade school ako until signal number 3 lang tinuro samin

a semblance of display of leadership from the president won't hurt. if not for the people here blessed w/ a good head on their shoulders , but for the millions of people who live in the fringes of our society, who would most likely suffer the most from this typhoon.

w/ the closure of abs/cbn, information dissemination all over the country is at its worst nowadays in decades. there are still a lot of people out there who rely on their radios for their daily dose of information. eh hindi naman lahat ng broadcasters may infrastructure tulad ng ginawa ng kompanyang iyan.

ang dami ngang public school teachers umaakyat ng bundok para lang maka-hagilap ng cellphone signal on good weather days for their school curriculum for the home schooling program, eh paano pa kaya ngayon na may posibilidad matepok nanaman ang kuryente.

Exactly

BTW How come I don't receive text blasts re the typhoon?

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[gongrhey]

Guys brace for this typhoon sobrang lakas ng dalang hangin at tubig ulan. Grabe damage sa Albay, hanggang dibdib ang baha. I have families and friends there sharing videos and images. Sana humina na pagdating metro manila.

[benchman]

kung titignan ang latest forecast ng pagasa, hindi direct hit ang metro manila. after bicol region, the eye of the storm will pass through parts of quezon, laguna then exit to the west philippine sea somewhere in cavite area.

http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

light shower with moderate winds lang dito sa metro east ngayon.
stay safe everyone.

[BratPAQ]

Goverment is struggling with public info decimation... Only 2 stations with very limited reach are covering Roque's press conference.

DZMM lang ba nationwide ang reach? Yung ibang channel localized?

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[BratPAQ]

Hihina daw sabi ng pagasa. Ilan kms/hr pala takbo nito? Sana mabilis para makatawid agad saka sana wala mayaaodnv power lines masira.


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Babagal yan papasok ng NCR, wala sya RFID. [emoji23]

I heard on the news this afternoon, humina daw ng bahagya, pero mapanganib pa rin. Let's just hope it continues to weaken before it reaches NCR.

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[BratPAQ]

Lintik na GMA ito. Sila na nga lang ang natirang news network sa free TV kung anu-ano pa ang pinalalabas. I thought GMA news TV only had news 24/7. Time to show what they're capable of sana ngayon kaso sablay.

Now watching ABS-CBN teleradyo live YouTube.

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Thanks for the tip about Tele Radyo. I tuned in to GMA news TV too because I want live updates. Puro drama palabas. They should be broadcasting live coverage eh.

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[BratPAQ]

GMA News - #RollyPH further weakens and is now over... | Facebook

Further weakens daw. Nag landfall San Narciso, Quezon. Sana patuloy pa na humina.

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[shadow]

GMA News - #RollyPH further weakens and is now over... | Facebook

Further weakens daw. Nag landfall San Narciso, Quezon. Sana patuloy pa na humina.

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Weakens to what? Then dapat ituloy na nila sabihin yun mga dadaanan huwah na putol putol


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[Monseratto]

Wind starting to pick up outside in True QC... Those staying in highrise buildings, stay away from glass windows.

[BratPAQ]

Weakens to what? Then dapat ituloy na nila sabihin yun mga dadaanan huwah na putol putol


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Downgrade na sya from super Typhoon to just typhoon. Calabarzon ang daan nya, hindi direct hit ang NCR.

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[kagalingan]

ang lakas ng hangin. Malalaki bintana dito kaya sinarado ko. Kaso sa dirty kitchen wala saraduhan as in screen lang. Nagliparan disposable plastic yung pang take-out

[Flipo]

Photos from Dost_pagasa's post

Dost_pagasa
32t SmfmpanoinnsooredsSiu ·
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #16
FOR: TYPHOON "#RollyPH" (GONI)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 2:00 PM, 01 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today)
TYPHOON "ROLLY" FURTHER WEAKENS AND IS NOW OVER MONGPONG PASS.
Violent winds and intense rainfall associated with the region of the eyewall and inner rainbands of the typhoon is prevailing or expected within the next 12 hours over the Marinduque, Laguna, the eastern portion of Batangas, and Cavite. This a particularly dangerous situation for these areas.
Track and intensity outlook:
• The center of the eye of Typhoon "ROLLY" made its third landfall in the vicinity of San Narciso, Quezon (13.5°N,122.6°E) at 12:00 PM today.
• The center of this typhoon will continue to move over the Marinduque-Central Quezon this afternoon and towards Batangas-Cavite area late afternoon through evening. Between 4:00 to 7:00 PM, the center of the eye of “ROLLY” is located around 70 km south of Metro Manila. “ROLLY” is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass and emerge over the West Philippine Sea tonight. During its traverse of Southern Luzon, “ROLLY” is forecast to weaken but will emerge as a typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Rainfall: Today, the passage of Typhoon “ROLLY” will bring heavy to intense rains over CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, Bataan, Bulacan, Aurora, and the eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela. Moderate to heavy rains rains will be experienced over Cordillera Administrative Region, and the rest of mainland Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro, Western Visayas and the rest of Luzon. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
• Strong winds: Very destructive to devastating typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #4, destructive typhoon-force winds in areas under TCWS #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1. Potential impacts of the wind conditions to structures and vegetation under each wind signal are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over the rest of Northern Luzon that are not under TCWS #1.
• Storm surge: In the next 24 hours, there is a high risk of storm surge of up to 3.0 m over the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands, coastal areas of Metro Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, the southeastern coastal area of Batangas (facing Tayabas Bay), and most of the southern coastal areas of Quezon; up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Marinduque, Lubang Island, Albay, Masbate (including Ticao and Burias Islands), the northern coastal area of Mindoro Provinces, and the remaining coastal areas of Quezon, and Batangas. Moreover, there is also a moderate to high risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay and Taal Lake. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 16.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other information:
TCWS elsewhere has been lowered or lifted.
Location of eye/center At 1:00 PM today, center of the eye of Typhoon "ROLLY" was located based on all available data at over the coastal waters of Mulanay, Quezon(13.5°N, 122.4°E).
Strength Maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 240 km/h.
Movement Moving Westward at 25 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 265 km West of Iba, Zambales (15.1°N, 117.5°E)
• 48 Hour (Tuesday morning):705 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.1°N, 113.4°E)
• 72 Hour (Wednesday morning): 1,020 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.8°N, 110.8°E)
TCWS 4
(171-220 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 12 hours)
•Luzon
Camarines Norte, the northwestern portion of Camarines Sur (Sipocot, Lupi, Ragay, Del Gallego), Marinduque, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Pampanga, Bulacan, the southern portion of Aurora (Dingalan), Bataan, the southern portion of Zambales (San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso, San Antonio, Castillejos, Subic, Olongapo City, Botolan, Cabangan), the northwestern portion of Occidental Mindoro(Mamburao, Paluan) including Lubang Island, and the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Victoria, Naujan Lake, Pola, Naujan, Calapan City, Baco, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera)
TCWS #3
(121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours)
•Luzon
The rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Zambales, Tarlac, the southern portion of Nueva Ecija (Cuyapo, Talugtug, Muñoz City, Llanera, Rizal, Bongabon, Gabaldon, General Tinio, Laur, Palayan City, General Mamerto Natividad, Cabanatuan City, Santa Rosa, Peñaranda, Gapan City, San Isidro, Cabiao, San Antonio, Jaen, San Leonardo, Zaragoza, Aliaga, Talavera, Santo Domingo, Quezon, Licab, Guimba, Nampicuan), the central portion of Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Maria Aurora), the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Santa Cruz, Sablayan), Burias Island, the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Socorro, Pinamalayan, Gloria, Bansud, Bongabong, Roxas), and Romblon
TCWS #2
(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
•Luzon
The rest of Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, the rest of Nueva Ecija, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, the northern portion of Masbate (Aroroy, Mandaon, Balud, Baleno, Milagros, Masbate City, Mobo, Uson, Cawayan, Dimasalang) including Ticao Island, the rest of Occidental Mindoro, and the rest of Oriental Mindoro
TCWS #1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
•Luzon
Mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, the rest of Masbate, and the northern portion of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Dumaran, Araceli) including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
•Visayas
The northern portion of Antique (Sebaste, Culasi, Tibiao, Barbaza, Laua-An, Pandan, Libertad, Caluya), Aklan, Capiz, the northern portion of Iloilo (Lemery, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles), and the northwestern portion of Northern Samar (Allen, Victoria, Lavezares, Rosario, San Jose, Biri, San Isidro, San Antonio, Capul, San Vicente)
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

[Devastator]

Malakas na ang hangin dito sa amin.

[papi smith]

Centralized na ang aircon dito sa amin

[shadow]

Ano yun peak dito sa manila?


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[WallyWest]

Thanks for the tip about Tele Radyo. I tuned in to GMA news TV too because I want live updates. Puro drama palabas. They should be broadcasting live coverage eh.

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Noticeable ang kakulangan ng resources ng ABS-CBN. Parang puro QC situation lang ang nare-report.

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[papi smith]

Ano yun peak dito sa manila?


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Based on latest location at mulanay this 1pm, mga 7-8pm siguro at 25 kph

[cast_no_shadow]

Ano yun peak dito sa manila?


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Same thoughts bro langya nahawa na ako sayo ah


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[dreamur]

Hindi gumagalaw puno dito sa BGC. Strange. Calm before the storm?

Forwarded update:
there has been a reversal in the projected track between GFS and ECMWF in that GFS now expects a much weakened Typhoon Rolly to move up to MM whereas the ECMWF expects Typhoon Rolly to transit without change as earlier projected :

Here is the revised track of Typhoon Rolly under the GFS Model.

November 1 (Sunday)

5:00pm San Pablo
6:00pm Calamba
7:00pm Between Calamba and Santa Rosa
8:00pm Crossing Laguna Lake, makes landfall in Taguig
9:00pm Makati / Manila / San Juan / Quezon City
10:00pm Exits to Manila Bay through Navotas
11:00pm Landfall in Balanga and Abucay, Bataan
12:00am Between Morong and Subic/Olongapo
1:00am Exits to West Philippines Sea from Olongapo
2:00am Now at sea off Olongapo (will regain strength)

During its transit from 5:00pm in San Pablo through Calamba and Santa Rosa, Typhoon Rolly is greatly weakened but wind gusts of up to 80-90kph is expected until it makes landfall in Taguig where wind gust of up 60-80kph is expected. The same wind strength of 60-80kph wind gust is expected as Typhoon Rolly transits into Makati/Manila/San Juan/QC until it exists to Manila Bay through Navotas.

It is very likely that this very precise path I described will still change a bit. I will provide an early afternoon update that will finally fix the final forecasted path of Typhoon Rolly under the GFS Model.

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[dreamur]

Windy tracker as of 6pm.

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