Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

[frustratedriver]

MOD's NOTE:

All weather related posts moved to this thread.

[ghosthunter]

Up to date satellite weather:
http://www.weather.com/maps/geograph...dex_large.html

Up to date satellite weather: (animated)
http://www.weather.com/maps/geograph..._animated.html

PAGASA:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

[Jun aka Pekto]

Another forecast is out.....

Current conditions:
RPLL 271700Z 14004KT 8000 -RA SCT023 OVC090 25/25 Q1005 CONTUS LGT RA RMK A2968

24-hour forecast:
RPLL 271700Z 2718/2818 20008KT 9000 SCT023 BKN100 TX31/2806Z TN25/2721Z
TEMPO 2718/2724 14005KT 8000 -RA SCT022 BKN090

That's more like it. At least now I see a reason for a TEMPO condition (the wind shift and light rain).

If people want to see some computer forecast models, here's one....

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/m...K_PRECIP_WINDS

[Hanren]

We have new storms coming. This was taken from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. (URL: http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php)

Tropical Depression 18 is still way out of the Pacific



Tropical Depression 10 jis just south of Guam


Things can still change this early. Just pray that these storms change course, or just dissipate.

[redorange]

We have new storms coming. This was taken from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. (URL: http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php)

Tropical Depression 18 is still way out of the Pacific



Tropical Depression 19 is just south of Guam


Things can still change this early. Just pray that these storms change course, or just dissipate.

The governor here already declared storm condition 3 here which means within 48 hours we should start feeling the effects of the storm. At condition 2 all items outside need to be tide down and storm shutters closed on base. Hopeful that this will not hit Luzon and move towards Japan like the near miss earlier this month. Too bad that means the air show will be canceled.

On another note since someone posted the Cristine Reyes roof top thing earlier. I read on another site she was rescued by Richard Gutierrez but he only rescued her and ignored the plea of a man with his infant child who had been on the roof of another house. The guy swam to the boat and he didn't help them not even the infant. If it's true he is the biggest prick in the world. Heck, they had a speed boat they could have kept rescuing others while they were there.

[ghosthunter]

Looks like we have a new storm brewing up near guam and heading towards the Philippines.

http://www.weather.com/maps/geograph..._animated.html

[Chikselog]

kakasabi lang sa GMA flash report..it may take 2-3 days bago pumasok sa PAR (phil. area of responsibility) yung storm na nasa guam..and another 2-3 days bago sya lumapit sa phils.

[Hanren]

Apparently, napaka favorable ng conditions ngayon sa Pacific ocean for the development of new storms. Actually tatlo yung namonitor ng Joint Typhoon Warning Center. One is located just south of Guam, another is just 445 Nautical Miles (NM) east of the first storm, and another potential storm 270 NM south of Kwajalein atoll. Marami pang puwedeng mangyari kasi maari silang maghilahan or mag merge owing to their close proximity with each other.

here's the satellite image [URL: http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg]

[ghosthunter]

From the news, there are TWO possible storms moving towards the Philippines.

[ghosthunter]

Notice the two dots near Guam... those are headed our way

[valvura]

good thing we have these alternate weather forecasting sources other than PAGASA. most probably sa above sources din nakuha ng PAGASA yung dalawang possible weather disturbances this week. Less than 24 hours lang ang PAGASA warning of the storm 'Ondoy' to hit Central Luzon and there was no wide area flooding forecast for greater Metro Manila. Please note the weather news last Sept. 25, Friday from GMA 7 (HISTORICAL CHRONOLOGY):

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/173115/o...northern-luzon

Ondoy' moves toward northern Luzon
09/25/2009 | 09:35 AM

At least eight provinces in Luzon were placed under Storm Signal No. 1 as tropical depression "Ondoy" continued moving toward central and northern Luzon Friday.

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said "Ondoy" is expected to make landfall in the eastern provinces of Aurora or Isabela Saturday night.

"In the meantime we expect Ondoy to continue gaining strength while it is still over the Pacific Ocean," Pagasa head Prisco Nilo said in an interview on dzXL radio.

In its 11 a.m. advisory, Pagasa said areas under Storm Signal No. 1 were Aurora, Quirino, Isabela, Nueva Ecija, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/173177/o...under-signal-2

'Ondoy' intensifies into tropical storm, 4 areas under signal 2
09/25/2009 | 07:18 PM

Tropical depression "Ondoy" intensified into a storm Friday afternoon as it moved closer to Luzon, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said.

In its 5 p.m. advisory, Pagasa said at least four areas were placed under Storm Signal No. 2. These are the provinces of Catanduanes, Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur, and Polillo Island in Quezon.

"This disturbance is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over Central and Southern Luzon and Visayas. Residents living in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes in areas affected by the southwest monsoon and those under signals No. 1 and No. 2 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides," Pagasa said.

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/173211/f...ights-canceled

PAGASA cannot be considered as weather 'forecaster' or even weather 'newscaster'. better kung weather 'history-caster'

I don't know if this is the proper thread to express disappointment with PAGASA.

[Jun aka Pekto]

Notice the two dots near Guam... those are headed our way

The GFS models have the first one lingering off the east coast of Luzon for a short time before veering north and northeastward. The second one will veer northeast while still far to the east. A frontal band over Japan stretching back southward will ensure there's too much shear aloft for the two systems to develop into typhoons. The rain amount is still a question mark. The models indicate ~10" of rain over a 6-day duration. Nothing alarming. The model may not be ideal for typhoons...

Of course, I'm looking at raw products. I have no access to product quirks peculiar to there and rules of thumbs tailored for the Philippines. Those are normally found at local weather stations. So, any forecasts I make probably will be totally out to lunch. That's why most forecasters outside normally go with whatever the home team says. Still, what remains consistent in the model runs over the next few days will give a good guess on what will eventually happen.

[redorange]

Hopeful the these don't develop into anything stronger than a banana storm and die when it gets close to Guam, and that the big one for this season is already done with Typhoon Choi Wan that missed Japan. That was a category 4, nobody needs another one of those anywhere in the Pacific. Although that one in Kwajalein doesn't look good since Super Typhoon Paka came from there in 1997.

Here people are just waiting for another big one because it's been 7 years since the last category 4/5 Super Typhoons. In the 90's we had 3 category 4/5 within 7 years and two came on consecutive years (91 Yuri, 92 Omar, 97 Paka w/235mph gust). Living without electricity for 6 months and water for 3 months became a norm and people made do with what they had.

[Lucius]

Sabi ni BF, dahil daw sa basura and squatters kaya nagbaha. Pero inako nya responsibility.

Squatters talaga. Nag-squat na nga dumagdag pa sa problema.

[ghosthunter]

Sabi ni BF, dahil daw sa basura and squatters kaya nagbaha. Pero inako nya responsibility.

Squatters talaga. Nag-squat na nga dumagdag pa sa problema.

Squatters add to the problem simply by being in places where they shouldn't be. They build houses on the river banks, etc.

[Lucius]

The governor here already declared storm condition 3 here which means within 48 hours we should start feeling the effects of the storm. At condition 2 all items outside need to be tide down and storm shutters closed on base. Hopeful that this will not hit Luzon and move towards Japan like the near miss earlier this month. Too bad that means the air show will be canceled.

On another note since someone posted the Cristine Reyes roof top thing earlier. I read on another site she was rescued by Richard Gutierrez but he only rescued her and ignored the plea of a man with his infant child who had been on the roof of another house. The guy swam to the boat and he didn't help them not even the infant. If it's true he is the biggest prick in the world. Heck, they had a speed boat they could have kept rescuing others while they were there.

Nagpasikat lang talaga. Buti nga sa kanila na-stuck din sya, syempre sunod din ung nanay at tatay nya

[Lucius]

Squatters add to the problem simply by being in places where they shouldn't be. They build houses on the river banks, etc.

Ya tapos sinisisi nila gobyerno blah blah eh sila ung nagsumiksik kung san san. Dahil dyan pati ung may matino na bahay nadamay

[jut703]

Ya tapos sinisisi nila gobyerno blah blah eh sila ung nagsumiksik kung san san. Dahil dyan pati ung may matino na bahay nadamay

And it doesn't help na yung gobyerno, walang ginagawa about it kasi botante din yung mga squatter na yan.

[Lucius]

And it doesn't help na yung gobyerno, walang ginagawa about it kasi botante din yung mga squatter na yan.

Uhh are you watching TV? Gibo and Bayani are working things out as of yesterday.

[jut703]

I wasn't referring to the immediate. Mula pa nung 70s talamak ng yung mga squatter. Have they done anything serious to remove them? Ever heard of the Lina Law. That's politicking at its finest.

In all fairness I salute Gibo kasi from what I've been seeing in the news at least his doing his job as NDCC chair. Hindi yung namumulitika lang. Yung mga detractors na nagsasabing late yung mga pinapadala niya, mostly naman it's because compromised ang mobility especially nung Saturday because of the traffic and floods.