Is the U.S.heading for a meltdown?

**6shooter** · December 20th, 2007 11:59 PM

Originally Posted by juntzo

OT:
i was one of those who availed of this easy loan when i bought my house in illinois in 2004. the county even paid for my downpayment since they have this program to encourage professionals to locate in certain approved cities.

fortunately i was wise enough to get a low fixed rate 30 yr loan and not an ARM! although at that time it was very tempting... imagine just pay the interest?

on topic:
i don't think the US is heading for a meltdown anytime soon. i own an archi and eng'g services office here in the PI and would you believe that my biggest client in the US wants me to expand to adequately meet their increasing volume of work?

Ask ko po. Di kaya kinuhkuha kayo dahil mas mura mag pa - outsource dito?

Bale ang kinunkunan niyo ng trabaho ay ang mga Kano mismo dahil mas mura kayo. Tulad ng Tsina. Dun na pinapagawa ang mga gawaing pabrika kasi mas mura ang labor. Ngayon, posible ba na ang mga Kano masyado ng mahal para sa kapwa nilang kano? Kaya posible ba na mag meltdown ang ekonomiya nila?

**froshie1** · December 21st, 2007 06:26 AM

Originally Posted by 6shooter

Ask ko po. Di kaya kinuhkuha kayo dahil mas mura mag pa - outsource dito?

Bale ang kinunkunan niyo ng trabaho ay ang mga Kano mismo dahil mas mura kayo. Tulad ng Tsina. Dun na pinapagawa ang mga gawaing pabrika kasi mas mura ang labor. Ngayon, posible ba na ang mga Kano masyado ng mahal para sa kapwa nilang kano? Kaya posible ba na mag meltdown ang ekonomiya nila?

May mawawalan ng trabaho yes. Pero meltdown ng economy nila, hindi ito sapat para imelt down ang ekonomiya nila. Iyong matatanggal sa trabaho 2 pwede mangyari sa kanila - 1.) makahanap ng mas maganda/parehas/panget na trabaho or 2.) mawalan ng gana at hindi na maghanap.

Actually iyong mga jobs na na-ooutsource eh napapalitan naman iyon ng mas lucrative na jobs sa kanila iyon nga lang mas nagiging competitive iyong pagkuha sa available na lucrative position.

Example - kung staff function ang inooutsource sa Pilipinas iyong mga heavy decision makers sila pa rin. kung dati may maraming programmers sa kanila, ngayon bawas na at iyong mga iba inuupgrade ang skills nila sa pagiging project managers.

Kung hindi sila magooutsource, lalo sila (as a whole, not talking to an individual or just the minority) magiging hindi competitive. Pag hindi sila competitive hindi sila makakasabay sa takbo ng mundo ngayon.

Pero syempre yeah may mawawalan ng trabaho, choice na ngayon ng mawawalan kung handa syang mag move on or not. May mga ways naman para mag move on, and yeah mahirap pero ganun talaga ang buhay walang kasiguruhan.

Kung nakikita mong mahirap sa kanila, well para sa akin mas mahirap pa rin dito sa Pilipinas hehehe. Worse comes to worse iyong tao na dati ok ok ang trabaho eh ang magiging trabaho nya ay odd jobs pero iyong odd job na iyon hindi sya magugutom doon pero syempre dapat handa din syang i-sacrifice ang mga luxuries nya dati.

Ang nakikita ko ngayon sa US (when it comes to outsourcing of jobs), nagrereinvent yan ng jobs para sa tao nila. Mas gumagaling nga sila (as a whole) pero syempre along the way may mga matatamaan na tao pero in the long run mas magiging ok pa sila.

**juntzo** · December 21st, 2007 09:12 AM

Originally Posted by froshie1

May mawawalan ng trabaho yes. Pero meltdown ng economy nila, hindi ito sapat para imelt down ang ekonomiya nila. Iyong matatanggal sa trabaho 2 pwede mangyari sa kanila - 1.) makahanap ng mas maganda/parehas/panget na trabaho or 2.) mawalan ng gana at hindi na maghanap.

Actually iyong mga jobs na na-ooutsource eh napapalitan naman iyon ng mas lucrative na jobs sa kanila iyon nga lang mas nagiging competitive iyong pagkuha sa available na lucrative position.

Example - kung staff function ang inooutsource sa Pilipinas iyong mga heavy decision makers sila pa rin. kung dati may maraming programmers sa kanila, ngayon bawas na at iyong mga iba inuupgrade ang skills nila sa pagiging project managers.

Kung hindi sila magooutsource, lalo sila (as a whole, not talking to an individual or just the minority) magiging hindi competitive. Pag hindi sila competitive hindi sila makakasabay sa takbo ng mundo ngayon.

Pero syempre yeah may mawawalan ng trabaho, choice na ngayon ng mawawalan kung handa syang mag move on or not. May mga ways naman para mag move on, and yeah mahirap pero ganun talaga ang buhay walang kasiguruhan.

Kung nakikita mong mahirap sa kanila, well para sa akin mas mahirap pa rin dito sa Pilipinas hehehe. Worse comes to worse iyong tao na dati ok ok ang trabaho eh ang magiging trabaho nya ay odd jobs pero iyong odd job na iyon hindi sya magugutom doon pero syempre dapat handa din syang i-sacrifice ang mga luxuries nya dati.

Ang nakikita ko ngayon sa US (when it comes to outsourcing of jobs), nagrereinvent yan ng jobs para sa tao nila. Mas gumagaling nga sila (as a whole) pero syempre along the way may mga matatamaan na tao pero in the long run mas magiging ok pa sila.

you got it right bro!

my clients' reasoning is that they are now more free to do the more important things like being creative in designs (architecture) and finding and dealing with their clients who are the source of their revenue.

yes, some americans will lose their jobs but this motivates them to move upward and gain more skills and knowledge. that's progress... i think!

**6shooter** · December 21st, 2007 01:32 PM

Eh kung ayon sa inyo malakas ang ekonomiya nila bakit bumabagsak ang pera nila? Ngunit ang pera na Euro pareho pa rin?

**uls** · December 21st, 2007 02:17 PM

Hindi appropriate ung term na "meltdown". "slowdown" is a more accurate term.

There are bulls and bears. The bears say the US economy will plunge into recession.

The bulls say it wont. Siguro hihina lang ang growth.

The weak USD is good for the US coz it makes everything Made in the USA cheaper. And they have data to prove that their exports are up.

**juntzo** · December 21st, 2007 02:48 PM

Originally Posted by 6shooter

Eh kung ayon sa inyo malakas ang ekonomiya nila bakit bumabagsak ang pera nila? Ngunit ang pera na Euro pareho pa rin?

a weak dollar will not result into a meltdown. it will give their exports a boost.

actually europe is also suffering from the effects of a strong euro similar to what is happening to the phil.

japan actually wants the yen to go down in value against other currencies so that their exports (think cars... millions of cars!) will be cheaper and affordable by other countries = more profit for them.

china also wants a lower value yuan but it is getting pressure from the US to raise its value. not too high though since that will make made in china more expensive for the americans!

that's is how confusing world economics is... but meltdown? i don't think so... at least not now or the near future.

**juntzo** · December 21st, 2007 03:02 PM

i also think slowdowns in the economy comes in cycles. remember the crash of 87? then the asian crisis of 96? now it's 2007!

i remember my old bosses in Illinois. they are always waiting for a slowdown in the economy... like when real estate becomes really cheap just like now. it is their time to acquire vast amount of properties which they will develop to make a killing in the next economy boom!

just remember... if you have the money. when do you think is the best time to buy a house in the U.S.? IT IS NOW!

i'm an optimist... so now i'm preparing for the next upswing (which follows a downswing of course!). i'm predicting that it will happen in the 3rd quarter of next year. by then i will be ready with double the no. of my employees to enjoy the rewards!

**v6dreamer** · December 22nd, 2007 04:33 AM

Originally Posted by 6shooter

Kung ganun po bakit dalawa ang bahay niyo? At sabi niyo po na alang problema po diyan. Mukha po sa sinabi niyo malaki ang problema.

Sa akin walang problema. I bought my house 15 yrs ago fixed interest from V.A for 30 yrs. even though both property appreciated 500% my monthly mortgage still the same. There is big diff of property value 15 yrs ago than now so if you are first time buyer, good luck.

**juntzo** · December 22nd, 2007 09:51 AM

here is proof that it is a slowdown not a meltdown. notice the US monthly exports volume? compare that to china's $2 billion monthly recently if i'm not mistaken.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...5038223326.htm

yes there is a weakness in the economy but don't be fooled it will rebound!

**KBR** · December 22nd, 2007 11:28 AM

Originally Posted by v6dreamer

I dont denied about the on going problem here on real estate for much reasons is, some buyers itself created thier own monster. Should I say, too much greed. Year 2000, real estate is booming and housing is selling like a candy because of low interest, there people buying real estate as a first time buyer (sub prime)and some are buying 2 or 3 house as an investment. Property owner are enjoying watching thier property appreciated into 2 or 3 fold of there property value like never seen before.

From there, the stories begin... Some buyers invest thier money in real estate, cashing out equity line of credit to put out another property for less interest rate (1%) for short time period assuming that they could re-sale it when the price is right. Since price are keep soaring, a 1 or 2 hundred thousand dollars cold cash is easy but instead of selling it now they wait a little bit more for thingking they could make bigger than that. Some are refinace thier home taking out thousands of dollar in equity to buy cars, jewelry, bigtime vacation, rolex wacth, paying there maximized credit card you name it. Its a mania time. Now the interest rate are rebounding so real estate are slowing down, the long hot selling days are over.

An average house in 2000 are about $200,000, now its about $500,000. Interest is up, no buyers coming forward because price are too high not too many could afford $3,000 or $4,000 a month mortgage. Other buyers who bought 2 or more house as invesment they were trapped they cannot sell the house. After there short term low interest loan expired they have to refinance the house with the current rate and now thier monthly mortgage could easily double up. Assuming you have three mortgage to pay $2,000 each a month plus insurance, property tax then we have a problem, a big one. Since they cannot afford to pay so much money on thier mortgage they must lower price to sell it quick again no buyers. In short, they must file bankruptcy to avoid more losses and bank repposses the property. This problem is the whole continental U.S, Az and Nev also is down.

this is true and I strongly agree with this

Originally Posted by froshie1

May mawawalan ng trabaho yes. Pero meltdown ng economy nila, hindi ito sapat para imelt down ang ekonomiya nila. Iyong matatanggal sa trabaho 2 pwede mangyari sa kanila - 1.) makahanap ng mas maganda/parehas/panget na trabaho or 2.) mawalan ng gana at hindi na maghanap.

Actually iyong mga jobs na na-ooutsource eh napapalitan naman iyon ng mas lucrative na jobs sa kanila iyon nga lang mas nagiging competitive iyong pagkuha sa available na lucrative position.

Example - kung staff function ang inooutsource sa Pilipinas iyong mga heavy decision makers sila pa rin. kung dati may maraming programmers sa kanila, ngayon bawas na at iyong mga iba inuupgrade ang skills nila sa pagiging project managers.

Kung hindi sila magooutsource, lalo sila (as a whole, not talking to an individual or just the minority) magiging hindi competitive. Pag hindi sila competitive hindi sila makakasabay sa takbo ng mundo ngayon.

Pero syempre yeah may mawawalan ng trabaho, choice na ngayon ng mawawalan kung handa syang mag move on or not. May mga ways naman para mag move on, and yeah mahirap pero ganun talaga ang buhay walang kasiguruhan.

Kung nakikita mong mahirap sa kanila, well para sa akin mas mahirap pa rin dito sa Pilipinas hehehe. Worse comes to worse iyong tao na dati ok ok ang trabaho eh ang magiging trabaho nya ay odd jobs pero iyong odd job na iyon hindi sya magugutom doon pero syempre dapat handa din syang i-sacrifice ang mga luxuries nya dati.

Ang nakikita ko ngayon sa US (when it comes to outsourcing of jobs), nagrereinvent yan ng jobs para sa tao nila. Mas gumagaling nga sila (as a whole) pero syempre along the way may mga matatamaan na tao pero in the long run mas magiging ok pa sila.

yup, exactly!

Originally Posted by juntzo

i also think slowdowns in the economy comes in cycles. remember the crash of 87? then the asian crisis of 96? now it's 2007!

i remember my old bosses in Illinois. they are always waiting for a slowdown in the economy... like when real estate becomes really cheap just like now. it is their time to acquire vast amount of properties which they will develop to make a killing in the next economy boom!

just remember... if you have the money. when do you think is the best time to buy a house in the U.S.? IT IS NOW!

i'm an optimist... so now i'm preparing for the next upswing (which follows a downswing of course!). i'm predicting that it will happen in the 3rd quarter of next year. by then i will be ready with double the no. of my employees to enjoy the rewards!

very true..

Originally Posted by v6dreamer

Sa akin walang problema. I bought my house 15 yrs ago fixed interest from V.A for 30 yrs. even though both property appreciated 500% my monthly mortgage still the same. There is big diff of property value 15 yrs ago than now so if you are first time buyer, good luck.

thats one of the best opportunities especially when you are a retiree of the US armed forces

aite, peace.