World economy talk

[tidus1203]

*emanzano

What did they do during World War I and II? Yep SPEND, SPEND, SPEND. They spend for war back then but this time they are spending for life support of supposedly dead companies, spending to make sure people continue to also spend, spending to make government jobs available (not sustainable, the bulk of the jobs have to come from private sources). Spending to reflate an economy which is based on a bubble economy based on borrowing and consuming rather than saving and invetsing.

I want to add na rin even if we don't achieve 15% maybe 10% inflation for example would you want to hold a currency which loses 10% of its purchasing power? Of course not. I am not talking practicality here I am talking wealth protection here. Maybe for some people its impractical to hop asset classes from one point to another (if you don't even have USD then it does not apply to you) but for those who has the means then consider what I have been saying here. I am not syaing it will happen but I haver already said my piece why I think it will happen.

[uls]

next year, the priority will still be wealth protection

the rate cuts punish savers...

the rate cuts are supposed to force money out from the sidelines

to drive money into riskier investments

but will savers will take out their money?

the environment is too hostile

chase yield?

nevermind the yield... what if i lose the principal?

people will be happy if they just break even next year.

in this environment, he who loses the least wins.

[tidus1203]

Bernanke has just thrown tear gas in the hiding holes of the savers. Unfortunately for him the savers already have gas masks. And even if they don't they just went to another hiding hole (aka the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Yen) to at least preserve their wealth better.

[uls]

haha

i never though of it that way

ZIRP = tear gas

[emanzano]

Oh, to be young. You know, there was a time when i was probably as bullheaded as you are now, that's why i just let your drivel slide. You just dont know when to quit even if you are given an exit.

What did they do during World War I and II? Yep SPEND, SPEND, SPEND. They spend for war back then but this time they are spending for life support of supposedly dead companies, spending to make sure people continue to also spend, spending to make government jobs available (not sustainable, the bulk of the jobs have to come from private sources). Spending to reflate an economy which is based on a bubble economy based on borrowing and consuming rather than saving and invetsing.

Now you've gone from "shooting from the hip" to shooting yourself in the foot. You're comparing two world wars with today's current deleveraging, and you're only bullet is that they spent a lot during both times??? Did you consider consumer confidence, shutdown in manufacturing, all that destruction, and all other factors associated with a WORLD WAR??! Previously, i expected statements like this to be beneath you. But i guess you proved me wrong. Your personal theories are so full of holes i could drive a truck through them.

I want to add na rin even if we don't achieve 15% maybe 10% inflation for example would you want to hold a currency which loses 10% of its purchasing power? Of course not. I am not talking practicality here I am talking wealth protection here. Maybe for some people its impractical to hop asset classes from one point to another (if you don't even have USD then it does not apply to you) but for those who has the means then consider what I have been saying here. I am not syaing it will happen but I haver already said my piece why I think it will happen.

You have this knack for repeating your position over and over and over again (sorry, i know myself to be a patient man but you are just way out of my league). I already explained to you in my previous post (with matching chart via uls) why i think the USD cant depreciate dramatically against all other currencies because all the other first world countries are doing the same thing, so they will just cancel each other out (more or less). That was just last page, i think. Did you forget already?

You talk so fondly about the Yen. Well Japan now is printing money as well to deliberately depreciate their currency to aid their export. So what currency do you propose we switch to? Show us 5-year graphs to support your statement so that there'll be real value in them.


You dont have to reply to my post just to say you replied. But if you still feel the need (which i'm sure you do), then go ahead. You can have the final word.

From now on, i will just ignore your drivel and just reply to your posts that actually have some substance, which is becoming rare as this thread goes on.

And let me leave you with some advice... 'Tis better to be silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt. - Abraham Lincoln

So next time, when someone gives you a graceful exit, take it.

[Galactus]

Somebody just got owned!!!

Such a red-letter day for the real economists, bonafide Ivy Leaguers, who actually manage a team of flesh-and-blood financial technocrats (and not sit on their PC's all day, analyzing data I bet they couldn't even comprehend, and pretend to be one)! The crackpot has been put in his proper place!

[tidus1203]

*emanzano

Nope I really don't think anything I said was foolish at all. If consumer confidence is down shouldn't it brought deflation instead fact is it was inflation and the government back then is doing all the spending like they do now with no assistance to the consumers. Deleveraging now and wars is not the same, but the level of government spending is almost the same.

But also as the thread goes on I also notice one thing, you are also attacking my personality as well rather than the ideas when in fact you are the one who said to concentrate on attacking the ideas. As I have said the Yen has served me wonders profit wise so I know 1st hand that it works. But if you're going to the path of calling yourself above me or all those mud slinging then such a pity as I was enjoying our debate so far until your last post...

Here is a chart of the Yen all the way back from 1978 (Its a monthly chart which I got from Metatrader the trading platform that I am using). You decide if its profitable or not. Note: Falling chart means rising Yen.

[CoDer]

Oh boy somebody better close this thread na.

[tidus1203]

Well I hope the moderators don't think this squabble we have here warrants a thread closure... I mean everyone is welcome to debate yun nga lang sana malinis. I tried to be clean so far except for one instance when someone was throwing mud then I throwed mud back. But sana di na yun mangyari...

[uls]

Toyota will remember 2008

Toyota Forecasts Its First Operating Loss in 71 Years
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...i0g&refer=home

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s second-largest automaker, forecast its first operating loss in 71 years on plummeting demand, prompting Moody’s Investors Service to consider downgrading the company’s top-rated credit.

The carmaker will post a 150 billion yen ($1.7 billion) loss in the year through March, it said in a statement today, scrapping a previous forecast of a 600 billion yen profit.

--

Global rate-cutting orgy

China Cuts Key Rates for Fifth Time in Three Months
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...m6w&refer=home

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- China cut interest rates for the fifth time in three months to support the world’s fourth-biggest economy after trade growth collapsed because of recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan.

[emanzano]

But also as the thread goes on I also notice one thing, you are also attacking my personality as well rather than the ideas when in fact you are the one who said to concentrate on attacking the ideas.

Tidus, I may have gone a tad overboard. If you felt that my post attacked your person, please do accept my sincere and humble apology. It was wrong and inexcusable. I hope we're cool. If not, then i will understand.

If consumer confidence is down shouldn't it brought deflation instead fact is it was inflation and the government back then is doing all the spending like they do now with no assistance to the consumers. Deleveraging now and wars is not the same, but the level of government spending is almost the same.

If you say so, then let's let it be.


As for your graph, it looks pretty flat to me since 1995. So unless i bought way back in 1983, the only way to make decent money on the Yen it to buy at lows and sell at peaks (inverse of your graph), i.e., "day trade." But like i said, if you made money on it then good for you.

[tidus1203]

I am always cool man... Even if people attack my personality you guys are still faceless avatars hidden in an alternick so I am not bothered at all I am just more concerned with the cleanliness of the discussion.

Although mukang maliit sa chart actually the bottom of the Yen back in 1994 was 79 and change and the peak in 1997 was 148 and change. Add leverage (Forex traders use leverage, I know I do and I know most do to magnify gains) and you can really make a retirement fortune out of that move. Then it fell again, then went up etc. Which I want to bring back the point na there should always be an exit strategy when you are in the markets.

[Galactus]

Biglang nanahimik yung thread Normally, by this time, plus 20 additional posts na yung nadagdag. I guess somebody's still licking his wounds in quiet solitude, hehehe.

Anyway, Merry Xmas peeps! Peace on earth and goodwill towards men!

[tidus1203]

Hay Galactus came we have some PEACE once and for all. Di na kita pinapakialaman, laki ng galit mo parang tito mo ata si Bernanke cause you really hate it when I bash him even if its out of context. No need to be personal, forums lang ito...

No one posting since its a quiet day in the markets. Low volumes, and just no news excpet the Toyota news...

[uls]

bakasyon na e

huling araw work ko last saturday

january na uli pasok

ngayon lang ako nag online... 1 pm na hehe

check ko muna ano nangyari since last night and this AM...

BRB

[shadow]

WHOOO!!! it's getting hot in here...now I wonder where is ULS amidst all of these exchanges between emanzano and Tidus...

nawala si Robin, iniwan si batman...hehehe


wala bang summary? dapat meron din graph kung anong forecast ni ULS and Tidus na nagkatotoo from the start of this thread back in February until now...hehehe

I am not a trader nor a economist...I am just a passerby

I'll stay true with the title, if I have $20k-$50k last year on my saving account, which part of the hoard was from savings dollars through the years and part when I bought it when dollars rate was at it's peak..('coz there was forecast that dollars will reach 1:100 against the peso, even Lucio Tan forecasted it)

now if it so happen that early this year February to be exact I was browsing tsikot and found this thread. I panicked, was having a nervous breakdow, stress and all, can't breath felt like that life was squeezing out of me bec of the grave warning from Tidus's thread and sold all my dollars.

my question is where will it get me? should I treat ULS and Tidus to a sumpteous dinner for they have warned me or should I hit my myself for listening to pseudo economist as what our bro galactus calls them.

[uls]

am back hehe

low volume, gloomy US market

credit ratings downgrade for automakers

Japan closed for a holiday

outlook for Europe and Asia worsened

oil below $40

increased mortgage activity in US banks due to lower rates (but standards stricter)

Belgium's coalition govt resigns... something to do with the sale of Fortis to BNP Paribas

the Toyota news is all over the place

Merry Christmas

hehe

[tidus1203]

The Yen is indeed making it a merry Christmas....

[uls]

now if it so happen that early this year February to be exact I was browsing tsikot and found this thread. I panicked, was having a nervous breakdow, stress and all, can't breath felt like that life was squeezing out of me bec of the grave warning from Tidus's thread and sold all my dollars.

umm... sold all your dollars?

in exchange for what currency?

If yen, then you owe Tidus dinner



--

summary?

Tidus says the massive US govt spending will result in high inflation in the US

sir emanzano says there won't be

so di pa natin alam

[uls]

The Yen is indeed making it a merry Christmas....

haha

merry Xmas ni Tidus

hey, you owe Jim Rogers dinner for the JPY bet

hehe