World economy talk

[Monseratto]

BJ does Monty Python "What have the Romans done for us?"

[uls]

in 2018 the Fed started reducing its balance sheet (QT -- quatitative tightening) after years of balance sheet expansion (QE -- quantitative easing)



but they stopped QT a couple of months ago



why?

coz the world needs dollars

QT was destroying 50 billion dollars per month

it was slowing down the world economy

basically the Fed can't normalize its balance sheet without sending the world into recession

The Fed is stuck with its massive balance sheet

QT went too far

it resulted in inadequate reserves

primary dealers didn't have enough reserves to absorb massive US govt debt issuance

(read about last month's repo crisis)

So here we are

Not only has the Fed needed to stop QT, now the Fed needs to reverse QT



things cannot go back to normal pre-2008

QE is a drug that the world got addicted to and cannot wean itself off

THE FED CAN'T NORMALIZE

[Monseratto]

Hoping for the Hk$ to fall off the cliff...

Hong Kong releases up to HK$3 billion in city’s version of quantitative easing to bolster economy against downturn | South China Morning Post

[uls]

in 2018 the Fed started reducing its balance sheet (QT -- quatitative tightening) after years of balance sheet expansion (QE -- quantitative easing)

but they stopped QT a couple of months ago

why?

coz the world needs dollars

QT was destroying 50 billion dollars per month

--

QT went too far

it resulted in inadequate reserves

primary dealers didn't have enough reserves to absorb massive US govt debt issuance

(read about last month's repo crisis)

Fed repo: Worries continue over the efforts to fix funding issues

Wall Street is getting worried that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to control short-term borrowing rates have run into some potholes, with more danger ahead.

The central bank has been working feverishly to address issues that popped up more than a month ago in the repo market, the overnight lending place where banks go to borrow money from each other. A cash crunch led to a spike in several rates, leading the Fed to institute programs to maintain proper liquidity levels.

While the effort has worked fairly well so far — rates rose last week, though not nearly as much as in mid-September — finance professionals fear that the market problems are not fixed and funding issues can happen again.

[kisshmet]

^less money to build weapons for communist china

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[Monseratto]

Weak U.S. retail sales cast shadow over slowing economy - Reuters

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[uls]

Weak U.S. retail sales cast shadow over slowing economy - Reuters

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The US economy's last line of defense -- consumer spending

US households cut back spending on motor vehicles, building materials, hobbies and online purchases

[minicarph]

The US economy's last line of defense -- consumer spending

US households cut back spending on motor vehicles, building materials, hobbies and online purchases

Nag plateau na ang computer tech, with Apple reach the A13 processors, 3 x more powerful than any Intel or AMD

And yet wala pa gano nag venture sa 360 , 3D, AR, VR

Ako gusto Ko facebook page ko papasok friends ko tapos may salas ako trophy toom saka car museum ko.

Dapat andun na tayo sa speed ng mutti processors, kaya lang mga millennials tamad at reklamador, this generation should push for these techs

Imagine, pasok ka sa VR room ng BIR or SSS, tapos punta ka sa cabinet M, M as in minicsrph, tapos kuhain ko files ko dun

Eh wala stargazing millenials sa social media, maybe Gen Z will be a better generation, lost cause na ata millennials

[Monseratto]

Downgrade party...

Credit Suisse Downgrades Boeing (BA) to Neutral on Increased Risk

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[istan]

Bulky kasi

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[Monseratto]

Thai Owner of Dean & DeLuca Defaults on $88 Million of Debt

[kagalingan]

^
minamalas mga paborito ni cathey ah.

[Monseratto]

Good thing they hold the world currency... otherwise they would have made a beeline to the IMF...

U.S. Annual Budget Deficit Nears $1 Trillion With 26% Rise

[uls]

^^^

Trump's tax cuts and increased spending = more Treasury issuance

MASSIVE treasury issuance

And it's happening at a time when China is reducing its treasury holdings

So US domestics need to absorb the Treasury supply

In mid-September repo rates spiked -- meaning banks don't have cash to lend to each other so the Fed had to inject liquidity to bring down rates

there are lots of explanations out there (like a big bank is in trouble) but i believe it's because US domestics are already saturated with treasuries and they couldn't hold more

CASH RESERVES ARE LOW

Primary dealers (the big banks) are obligated to absorb US treasuries

but the supply is so massive and with China not buying much the banks have run down their reserves

(banks are required to hold cash reserves -- Basel 3 -- and they're already at the lowest level required)

They can't absorb more treasuries so the Fed had to step in

[ray_noel]

parang ang hirap talaga i.ahon ang pinas from 3rd world to a better one... daming corrupt, arrogant, hambog and etc. siguro if mababago sarili natin that’s the time na aasensyo ang pinas... sarili natin ang nag dodown lalo sa pinas...




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[uls]

tonight Federal Reserve

another rate cut likely

after this the Fed would probably signal a pause

but i think they'll cut again in early 2020 as they see more evidence of economic weakness

[uls]

tonight Federal Reserve

another rate cut likely

after this the Fed would probably signal a pause

but i think they'll cut again in early 2020 as they see more evidence of economic weakness

pause

[uls]

dollar index falls below 97

this is significant

[sparc179]

dollar index falls below 97

this is significant

Due to the impeachment proceedings against the orange one, Master Uls?

[uls]

dollar index lower again