World economy talk

[shadow]

*jut703 malaki ba talaga kita sa stocks? I have the impression since way back before that you need to invest significant amount of money to have a decent return.

Like for example if I have invested let's say ₱1M five years ago. How much based sa real data ang gains ngayon...conservatively?


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[papi smith]

Ang yumayaman lang sa stocks yung nag IPO na business owner. Kung buy and sell stocks lang, myth lang yan. Your just trying to get good returns on disposable income.

[jut703]

*jut703 malaki ba talaga kita sa stocks? I have the impression since way back before that you need to invest significant amount of money to have a decent return.

Like for example if I have invested let's say ₱1M five years ago. How much based sa real data ang gains ngayon...conservatively?


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If you invested your 1M all in Tesla stocks 5 yrs ago, meron ka na 24M now.

Pero siyempre di mo naman isusugal yung buong 1M mo siguro sa TSLA, so you might be more conservative and you invested your 1M in Apple kasi mas established company, meron ka na 5M ngayon.

Baka mas conservative ka pa gusto mo iba ibang stocks paglalagyan, so you invested in the S&P500. Yung 1M mo in 2016 would now have been 2M na now.

Laging percentage ang kita ng stocks so 200% of 10k is just 20k pero kung 1M ang pinasok mo then 200% gives you 2M.


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[jut703]

Ang yumayaman lang sa stocks yung nag IPO na business owner. Kung buy and sell stocks lang, myth lang yan. Your just trying to get good returns on disposable income.

The essence of stock investing for most people is capital protection. Instead na kainin ng inflation pera mo, better to have it work for you by growing in the stock market.

Since stocks gains are in % lang, small money in = small money out. Volume for me is more important than gains, that’s why I value my income earning more than my stock gains.

Yung savings ko from my salary ang pumupondo for my stocks, so the key to build wealth for mere employees like me is to improve salary, keep a high savings rate, and invest extra money prudently.


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[shadow]

If you invested your 1M all in Tesla stocks 5 yrs ago, meron ka na 24M now.

Pero siyempre di mo naman isusugal yung buong 1M mo siguro sa TSLA, so you might be more conservative and you invested your 1M in Apple kasi mas established company, meron ka na 5M ngayon.

Baka mas conservative ka pa gusto mo iba ibang stocks paglalagyan, so you invested in the S&P500. Yung 1M mo in 2016 would now have been 2M na now.

Laging percentage ang kita ng stocks so 200% of 10k is just 20k pero kung 1M ang pinasok mo then 200% gives you 2M.


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Huwag muna tayo sa US. Dito lang muna locally if I invested sa blue chips dito 1M 5 years ago ano kinita ko ngayon based sa real numbers na nangyari?


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[jut703]

Huwag muna tayo sa US. Dito lang muna locally if I invested sa blue chips dito 1M 5 years ago ano kinita ko ngayon based sa real numbers na nangyari?


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Kung PSEi ka naginvest, no change halos from 2016 to 2021. Bulok PH market eh. Which is why I diversified to US stocks also.

Kaya nagpayout sakin na from 2015 until now binabayaran ko yung bahay ko kaysa stocks. But if you were able to invest last year March meron ka na 150% ngayon.


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[xninjax]

Huwag muna tayo sa US. Dito lang muna locally if I invested sa blue chips dito 1M 5 years ago ano kinita ko ngayon based sa real numbers na nangyari?


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It depends aling blue chip stock binili mo.

For example:
If you bought PLDT on Jan 1, 2016. As of today's market close, you would be down roughly -37%
While if if you bought Ayala corp on the same date, you would be up roughly +15%

If you're talking about the PSEI index then you barely made nothing (+2%) as Jut mentioned

The stock market is not a get rich quick scheme. One must acquire the necessary skills and develop an edge (over years of study and practice etc...) over the markets to be consistently profitable over the long run. Once you've made it, you can make the stock market your money printing machine. :D

[jut703]

Pana-panahon lang talaga yan.

If you invested 1M in the PSEi in 2010, you’d have 2.35M in 2015. But 2016-2020 has been mostly flat.

Parang negosyo lang yan, kung nagbukas ka ng hotel, restaurant, rent-a-car ng 2019, malamang lugi ka na ngayon.

Same with real estate - rental prices are stagnating/dropping, occupancy rate is low, dami ring nagbebenta ng lupa/condo below 2019 market value. Pero from 2016-2019 tiba tiba ka sa rental and appreciation thanks to POGO.

Like the TEL example xninjax put above - it was a good buy from 2014-2016, but declined heavily the years that followed. Now, it looks to be a good buy again as it’s priced below its true value, it’s a good dividend stock, and their earnings look strong as they expand their broadband base, PayMaya, and heavy capex spending to crowd out incoming players.

For conservative investors like me, I prefer to build volume over time with TEL than ride an overvalued hype stock like DITO.

But as with anything, don’t put your eggs in one basket. The PSE’s recovery is contingent to PH vaccination, which is worst-in-class right now. So I have positions in the US market as well. But even the US market looks to be trading too high and is bound for a correction, so I also keep part of my investments in real estate and crypto.

Underlying foundation of it all is that I try to keep my employment stable and my salary growing. This is where I need to diversify as I need more than one income stream. As employees, we’re all replaceable so you need a fallback.


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[papi smith]

PSE will only go up if foreigns stop dumping and start buying. It's not the vaccination, nor the virus. It's the veerus.

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[jut703]

PSE will only go up if foreigns stop dumping and start buying. It's not the vaccination, nor the virus. It's the veerus.

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EM investments are actually up. Isa tayo sa mga kulelat among EMs kasi wala tayong matinong economic recovery plan kasi nga hindi tayo makabalik sa normal dahil sobrang delayed ng vaccination program natin relative to our peers.



Key Points from the COL Market Outlook 2021 - YouTube

PH vaccination expected to roll out fully by 2023, well behind ASEAN contemporaries like Vietnam or Thailand. Kalevel natin Bangladesh at Africa lol.

• Chart: Global Vaccine Timeline Stretches to 223 | Statista




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[Walter]

IBKR is for serious traders ... You need at least $25T to avoid the Pattern Day Trader Rule ... If you are so concerned about the fees then IBKR is not for you ... $10 is such a small amount compared to the fee difference ... eToro is more expensive (0.2% per trade) than IBKR's ($0.005 per share) ...

eToro's platform freezes more often than IBKR's during volatile days ... But if you're just a passive investor then you can probably do with just eToro ...

But now is not a good time to be buying if you're a passive investor ... wait for the bubble to burst ...

[jut703]

IBKR is for serious traders ... You need at least $25T to avoid the Pattern Day Trader Rule ... If you are so concerned about the fees then IBKR is not for you ... $10 is such a small amount compared to the fee difference ... eToro is more expensive (0.2% per trade) than IBKR's ($0.005 per share) ...

eToro's platform freezes more often than IBKR's during volatile days ... But if you're just a passive investor then you can probably do with just eToro ...

But now is not a good time to be buying if you're a passive investor ... wait for the bubble to burst ...

$1 per trade is bigger than 0.2% spread for my use. Php 25k is the breakeven point for that. I don’t put 25k per trade so eToro comes out cheaper.

I don’t bother with timing the market. Kaya nga DCA eh. If the bubble will burst in the next 6 months then good, I’ll be able to buy at a discount moving forward. If it takes longer, then ok lang din I can make some gains before the burst.

Ganyan na ganyan sabi nila sa BTC at 20k in November. It’s at 50k now and even if it corrects in the next few months, unlikely that it will drop back to the 20k levels.

Kung sobrang galing niyong magtime ng market, super yaman niyo na siguro. Congrats!


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[uls]

what do you feed livestock?

corn and soy



meat

#inflation

[boybi]

With most of the world under partial lockdown with restrictive people movements and no tourism, hence limited consumptions, why is it that commodity prices are increasing?

[uls]

With most of the world under partial lockdown with restrictive people movements and no tourism, hence limited consumptions, why is it that commodity prices are increasing?

ang explanation ko diyan it's coz commodities are also financial assets like stocks

since central banks are printing so much money (in response to pandemic) all that money has to go somewhere

nakikita natin sa stocks

S&P 500


then more recently crypto (new gold)

bitcoin



sabi ko pleeez leave commodties alone... coz i know sooner or later that money will find its way into commodities

ok lang mapunta sa stocks and crypto... di naman kinakain yan eh

---

kaya i've been watching commodities prices for weeks and sure enough money is flowing into commodities

[uls]

coz central banks are printing so much money there's concern about inflation

cash is hot potato

you look for inflation hedge

there's strong demand for inflation hedges

#stonks

#crypto

#commodities

[uls]

kaya sabi ko lagot ang Pinas pag tumaas ang commodities prices (sa futures market)

coz futures prices translate to real world prices

di pa kaya ng Pinas

madami di pa nakakarecover

[boybi]

kaya sabi ko lagot ang Pinas pag tumaas ang commodities prices (sa futures market)

coz futures prices translate to real world prices

di pa kaya ng Pinas

madami di pa nakakarecover

Since start of the year, panay na ang taas ng mga basic commodities sa atin: sugar, flour, cornstarch, cooking oil.

And also prices of meats because of ASF.

[uls]

Since start of the year, panay na ang taas ng mga basic commodities sa atin: sugar, flour, cornstarch, cooking oil.

And also prices of meats because of ASF.

sa pork malaking factor ung asf

dami pigs na namatay sa asf plus those killed to prevent spread kaya may shortage

tapos ayaw muna mag raise ng pigs ngayon dahil laki ng risk malugi

tapos tumaas din cost ng feeds

[uls]

Since start of the year, panay na ang taas ng mga basic commodities sa atin: sugar, flour, cornstarch, cooking oil.

And also prices of meats because of ASF.

aside from speculation in futures market meron din real world supply and demand factors yan

sa demand side nandun ang china

sa supply side baka may lower production

major agri exporters -- Brazil, Russia, Argentina, US

palm oil -- Malaysia, Indonesia