World economy talk

[dreamur]

And the winner is......

Warren Buffett likely just made more than 26 billion thanks to soaring Apple shares - MarketWatch

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

[StockEngine]

And the winner is......

Warren Buffett likely just made more than 26 billion thanks to soaring Apple shares - MarketWatch

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

magaling si lolo

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

[Monseratto]

[Monseratto]

Euro Contagion?


Turkish Lira Tumbles as Investors Panic Before Erdogan Address - Bloomberg

[uls]

Euro Contagion?


Turkish Lira Tumbles as Investors Panic Before Erdogan Address - Bloomberg

I'm concerned over the whole EM complex

[uls]

[Monseratto]

Turkey Crisis in Charts: Worse Than Lehman, Similar to 1998

The weakness makes it more expensive for Turkish borrowers to pay back foreign-currency loans. As a result, the country’s default risk has soared, driving up the cost of insuring against such an event using swaps. Turkey is now seen as more likely to default on its debt than Greece, which is rated four notches lower by Moody’s Investor Service. The current CDS pricing implies a 25 percent probability of non-payment in the next five years, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Lacking domestic funding sources, Turkey needs to borrow from foreign investors to sustain its spending. Its funding gap now is similar to that seen before the Asian currency crisis in the late 1990s, and the Latin America debt crisis in the 1980s, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

[Monseratto]

Sounds pamilyar...

Years of a growth-at-all-costs policy bias have left Turkey’s companies saddled with hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign debt, runaway inflation and one of the world’s largest current-account deficits.

“Rate hikes would not be enough, with Turkish officials needing to create a credibility shock,” Guillaume Tresca, senior emerging market strategist at Credit Agricole CIB, wrote in a Aug. 10 note. “A complete rebalancing of the economy is needed, with a new economic team and a real commitment to the central bank’s independence.”

Lira Extends Slide as Turkey Heads Toward a Financial Crisis

[uls]

Turkey 2018 is like Thailand 1997

[uls]

we're now seeing Turkey affecting other EM currencies

look at USDPHP

[Monseratto]

we're now seeing Turkey affecting other EM currencies

look at USDPHP

Turkish Contagion Infects Rand With Steepest Plunge Since 2008

“The rand should continue to be influenced by the Turkish lira crisis through the sentiment channel,” Societe Generale SA strategist Jason Daw wrote in a research note. “Until the lira stabilizes, the prospects for the South African currency are not encouraging.”

Emerging Asian foreign-exchange markets were also hit, though to a lesser degree. India’s rupee dropped to a new record low, while the Indonesian rupiah slumped 0.9 percent.

[uls]

the market smells blood

they're now attacking the next weakest

then the next one, and the next...

[dreamur]

we're now seeing Turkey affecting other EM currencies

look at USDPHP

And US$ is back at 53.31 and PSEI at 76xx. Wiped out last week's gain.

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

[uls]

why i'm worried about the whole EM universe

me: suggest contagion trades

someone: ARS, MXN, IDR, ZAR, RUB, INR, BRL, PHP

[uls]

[uls]

see the inverse correlation?

commodities fall as the dollar strengthens

[uls]

my global macro view so far

no more synchronized global growth

it's slower growth for the rest of the year

uneven growth --> strong in the US, weak in the rest of the world

factors weighing on the global economy:

rising US interest rates

stronger USD

large USD-denominated EM debt

high oil prices (in non-USD currencies specially EM currencies)

higher tariffs, trade war

[StockEngine]

stronger USD[emoji106]

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

[uls]

why i'm worried about the whole EM universe

me: suggest contagion trades

someone: ARS, MXN, IDR, ZAR, RUB, INR, BRL, PHP

Indonesia:


India:


South Africa:


Argentina:

[uls]

Trump is not happy the Fed is raising interest rates



the dollar fell in reaction





so Trump wants a weaker dollar?

that's great for emerging markets

rising US interest rates --> stronger dollar --> EM pain

if Trump can make the Fed (which is supposed to be independent) pause rate hikes, the dollar will weaken and provide relief to EM