World economy talk

[uls]

Argentina’s banks are planning to buy the holdouts’ bonds at 100% value then work out their own deal to get paid back by the govt. details not clear yet

UPDATE: International banks eye Argentina holdout debt | Reuters

UPDATE: International banks eye Argentina holdout debt

NEW YORK, July 31 (IFR) - International banks could be joining the effort to buy up the Argentine debt from sovereign's holdout creditors and resolve the messy default standoff, multiple sources said Thursday.

A last-ditch effort by domestic Argentine banks to buy the debt, and allow the sovereign to save face by not paying in full the "vulture funds" that are holding out, failed on Wednesday.

[Lady Bathory]

We are finally seeing a bottom in Treasury yields. If U.S. data continues to surprise to the upside the long awaited rally in Treasury yields will finally happen.

[Lady Bathory]

The market was positioned for a higher-than-expected jobs number but was disappointed. The U.S. dollar dropped immediately against all major currencies. Not only did the jobs number fall short of expectations the unemployment rate rose to 6.2% from 6.1%. Will this jobs report make the Fed alter the pace of tapering QE in the next 2 months? No. The Fed is scheduled to end QE in October and they will have to lay out plans for what comes next at this month's Jackson Hole gathering or next month's FOMC meeting. Happy weekend.

[uls]

forgot to post this last week

the BSP raised its main interest rates by 25 basis points

http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/sdds/bspratesdds.htm

[tidus1203]

forgot to post this last week

the BSP raised its main interest rates by 25 basis points

http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/sdds/bspratesdds.htm

Pero tumaas ang USDPHP... Kamot ulo mga fundamentalists...

[uls]

hehe

the BSP raised rates when the USD was rallying

the supposed gains in the peso was offset by dollar strength

[jhnkvn]

Banco Espirito Santo Junior Bonds Slide as Bailout Forces Losses - Bloomberg

Portugal's second largest bank is now owned by the government. Looking at this on how far it'll go, truth be told, it isn't bad as a contrarian play... just not now.

[uls]

expect more BSP action

Philippines Inflation Quickens In July, Exceeds Expectations

8/4/2014 10:36 PM ET
Consumer prices in the Philippines rose at a faster than expected rate in July as food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased, data from the National Statistics Office of Philippines showed Tuesday.

Consumer prices grew 4.9 percent year-over-year in July, marking the steepest rise in prices since November 2011. This was faster than the 4.4 percent rise in June and the 4.6 percent increase expected by economists.

Heavily weighed food and non-alcoholic beverages prices climbed 8.2 percent in July following the 7.4 percent growth in June.

Also, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels prices rose 2.4 percent, at a faster rate than in June. Health and transport prices also recorded faster increases in July.

Education costs grew 5.1 percent in July, faster than the 5 percent increase in June.

Meanwhile, prices of alcoholic beverages, clothing and footwear, communication and recreation and culture rose at a slower rate in July.

Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy prices, increased 3 percent in July following a 2.8 percent rise in June.

On a month-over-month basis, consumer prices rose at a faster rate of 0.6 percent, after the 0.4 percent hike in June.

[Monseratto]

Almonds...

World goes nuts for Australian almonds
August 5, 2014 - 5:21PM
Jared Lynch
Business reporter

Foreign investors are circling Australia’s growing almond industry as a global shortage drives up prices.

Australian almonds have become more appealing as drought ravages California, which produces about 80 per cent of the world’s almonds.

In response, almond prices have risen to a nine-year high of about .45 ($3.70) a pound (about 450 grams).

That has seen the Australian almond industry grow massively. It now accounts for about 7 per cent of global supply and has pipped Spain as the world's second largest producer.

In the past year the Australian crop has risen by almost 50 per cent to 73,361 tonnes and the value of exports has more than doubled to $370 million, according to official data.

PAC Partners agribusiness analyst Paul Jensz said investors that poured money into the Californian industry were beginning to look elsewhere and Australia was ''putting up its hand''.

''America isn’t producing as much almonds as they were. They are down about 10 per cent than they were in record years, and that’s probably going to step down a bit further once this drought has effects in the next couple of years,'' Mr Jensz said.

''It’s just really a rebalancing. Essentially too much money has gone into long-term farming in the Californian basin.''

Mr Jensz said Australian almond farmers could ''quite happily'' double or triple production if they could access ''patient capital''. Indeed, once existing trees that have been planted reach maturity, production will near 90,000 tonnes.

Australian Almond Board chief executive Ross Skinner said many of the bigger orchards were talking to overseas investors to boost production further after global demand started outstripping supply last year.

''World demand has gone up by about the size of the Australian industry every year for the past 10 years,'' Mr Skinner said.

''It’s hard to see [supply] increasing dramatically, given the difficulties of water supply in the US.''

Almonds are Australia’s most lucrative horticulture crop, overtaking citrus and table grapes last year when it became the first to earn more than $300 million in exports, mostly to India and the Middle East.

Paul Thompson, managing director of Australia’s biggest listed almond producer Select Harvests, expects production to fall up to 20 per cent this year on last year's crop.

''Preliminary investigations indicate the downturn is most likely caused by the combined impact of wet growing and harvest conditions, insect damage and the extreme temperatures experienced through parts of the growing cycle,'' Mr Thompson said in the company’s latest harvest update to the ASX.

''[But] both local and export demand for the crop remains strong. The average price this season is $8.40 a kilogram, up 28 per cent on average prices achieved by Select Harvests last year.''

Read more: World goes nuts for Australian almonds

[Lady Bathory]

Nomura FX team: "we have doubled long USD exposure last week (through a global basket), and we are very comfortable with this exposure"

[OLDisCOOL]

Philippines Inflation Quickens In July, Exceeds Expectations

8/4/2014 10:36 PM ET
Consumer prices in the Philippines rose at a faster than expected rate in July as food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased, data from the National Statistics Office of Philippines showed Tuesday.

Consumer prices grew 4.9 percent year-over-year in July, marking the steepest rise in prices since November 2011. This was faster than the 4.4 percent rise in June and the 4.6 percent increase expected by economists.

Heavily weighed food and non-alcoholic beverages prices climbed 8.2 percent in July following the 7.4 percent growth in June.

Also, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels prices rose 2.4 percent, at a faster rate than in June. Health and transport prices also recorded faster increases in July.

Education costs grew 5.1 percent in July, faster than the 5 percent increase in June.

Meanwhile, prices of alcoholic beverages, clothing and footwear, communication and recreation and culture rose at a slower rate in July.

Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy prices, increased 3 percent in July following a 2.8 percent rise in June.

On a month-over-month basis, consumer prices rose at a faster rate of 0.6 percent, after the 0.4 percent hike in June.

Blame the inflation on Erap & Isko Moreno. These actors-turned-politician are wrecking havoc on our economy. The strict truck ban screwed us nicely and they just played with words to make it sound fair.

Next election you need to remember that these clowns are not your friends

[uls]

Blame the inflation on Erap & Isko Moreno. These actors-turned-politician are wrecking havoc on our economy. The strict truck ban screwed us nicely and they just played with words to make it sound fair.

Next election you need to remember that these clowns are not your friends

yup

most businesses are affected

inventories are running out and container vans are still stuck at the port

those geniuses in govt have f*cked up the supply chain

[Lady Bathory]

German 2-year bond yield goes negative.

[uls]

^^

safe haven demand

http://online.wsj.com/articles/ukrai...nds-1407417598

Investors scooped up safer government bonds in the U.S. and Germany on Thursday as geopolitical tensions in Ukraine boosted demand for haven assets.

The buying pushed up price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note for a fifth straight session.

Higher prices sent bond yields tumbling. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to near the lowest level of 2014. The 10-year German government bond's yield hit a record low near 1%. The two-year German government bond yield traded at zero.

In recent trading, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was 7/32 higher, yielding 2.447%, according to Tradeweb.

In Germany, the 10-year government bond's yield fell to 1.073%. The U.K. 10-year government bond yield slid to 2.497%.

[uls]

just when you thought volatility is back it collapses again

[badkuk]

yup

most businesses are affected

inventories are running out and container vans are still stuck at the port

those geniuses in govt have f*cked up the supply chain

Am wondering why nobody has called them out on this. Iba na talaga pag mahal ng masa, you can do no wrong

[Monseratto]

BBC News - Japan's economy shrinks after sales tax rise

13 August 2014 Last updated at 01:34
Japan's economy shrinks after sales tax rise

Japan's economy contracted by an annualised 6.8% in the second quarter of the year, the biggest fall since 2011 when it was devastated by an earthquake and tsunami.

The official gross domestic product (GDP) figure though was smaller than the 7.1% drop economists expected.

The shrinkage was largely in response to a government sales tax, which held back consumer spending.

Japan's sales tax rose from 5% to 8% in April.

On a quarterly basis, the economy contracted 1.7% in the second quarter after a 1.5% rise in the first three months.

[Monseratto]

BBC News - Japan's economy shrinks after sales tax rise

13 August 2014 Last updated at 01:34
Japan's economy shrinks after sales tax rise

Japan's economy contracted by an annualised 6.8% in the second quarter of the year, the biggest fall since 2011 when it was devastated by an earthquake and tsunami.

The official gross domestic product (GDP) figure though was smaller than the 7.1% drop economists expected.

The shrinkage was largely in response to a government sales tax, which held back consumer spending.

Japan's sales tax rose from 5% to 8% in April.

On a quarterly basis, the economy contracted 1.7% in the second quarter after a 1.5% rise in the first three months.

[Monseratto]

Oil falls further; Brent crude at 13-month low - Futures Movers - MarketWatch

Oil falls further; Brent crude at 13-month low
By Eric Yep

Crude-oil futures extended losses in Asian trade Wednesday, pushing Brent crude to its lowest in more than a year.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in September CLU4 +0.06% traded at $97.09 a barrel, down $0.28 in the Globex electronic session. September Brent crude UK:LCOU4 +0.19% on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.40 to $102.62 a barrel.

Brent crude traded at its lowest since early July 2013 after on Tuesday the International Energy Agency cut global demand forecasts for both 2014 and 2015, and said markets remain well supplied despite events in the Middle East and Ukraine.

[Monseratto]

Sugar Crush!!!

Candy Crush' Maker King Reports Earnings, A $150 Million Dividend, And The Stock Is Crashing
STEVE KOVACH

King, the maker of popular mobile games like "Candy Crush Saga," reported earnings for last quarter on Tuesday.
Earnings were right in line with expectations, but it was a miss on revenue.

Here's the score:

EPS: $0.59 vs. $0.59 expected.

Revenue: $593.5 million vs. $606 million expected.

The stock is crashing. It was down at least 20% after hours.

King also announced a $150 million one-time dividend for the company's top directors, executives, and investors.

King games had 138 million daily active users and 485 million monthly active users last quarter.

Because of last quarter's lower-than-expected revenue, King is lowering its guidance for the rest of the year. It expects gross bookings to be $500 million to $525 for the quarter ending September 30. It expects gross bookings for the fiscal year ending Dec. 31 to be $2.25 billion to $2.35 billion.

Read more: LIVE: Candy Crush Maker King Reports Earnings And The Stock Is Crashing | Business Insider