World economy talk

[uls]

yep

lakas ng JPY dude

sobra mahal na mga gamit sa Japan

[uls]

Tataas pa ba kaya USD ngayong linggo? bebenta sana ng USD e, mababa

depende sa kinalabasan ng G20 summit dude

[Zeus]

depende sa kinalabasan ng G20 summit dude

Kailan matatapos ang summit?

[uls]

Kailan matatapos ang summit?

Tonight start, 2 day meeting

[Zeus]

Tonight start, 2 day meeting

Thanks Uls

[tidus1203]

depende sa kinalabasan ng G20 summit dude

Perosnally I say MEH to the G20. Wala namang magagawa yan mga yan kaya nga sabi ni idol Jim Rogers pumunta na lang sila sa bar (mga world leaders) at maginom ng beer!

[tidus1203]

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. credit card charge-off rate rose to a record high in August, as more Americans lost their jobs, Moody's Investors Service said on Wednesday, in another sign consumers remain under stress.The Moody's credit card charge-off index -- which measures credit card loans that banks do not expect to be repaid -- rose to 11.49 percent in August from 10.52 percent in July.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32987401


More signs that the "CONSUMER" has not yet recovered... The so-called 70% of the US economy the mighty "CONSUMER" who would sell their souls to buy the latest and greatest!

[uls]

add to that the coming commercial real estate mortgage defaults

the adjustable rate mortgages that will soon switch to higher interest rates which would trigger high number of defaults

no wonder the banks are still hoarding cash

they are building up their reserves in anticipation of the coming wave of defaults

[uls]

Perosnally I say MEH to the G20. Wala namang magagawa yan mga yan kaya nga sabi ni idol Jim Rogers pumunta na lang sila sa bar (mga world leaders) at maginom ng beer!

ya wala naman talaga sila gagawin

lalo na ngayon may signs of recovery (thanks to massive govt spending)

wala sila motivation ayusin ang financial system coz wala na yung sense of urgency

but people are still waiting for the outcome of the G20 meet

anything that comes out of the G20 meet can either trigger a sell off in risk assets and rally the USD (temporarily) or send the USD even lower

we'll be watching

[boyongful]

Why the Dow is Hitting 10,000 While Everyone Else is Cutting Back
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert..._b_294682.html

Eye opening and straight to the point! Good reading for investors who would think that a bull rally is on the way!

[uls]

^^^

glad you read it dude

no fundamentals in this rally

it's all momentum

the big players (the big banks) got free money from the Fed and they are using the money to buy stocks

the stock rally is sucking in smaller players (retail and institutional investors)

well, that's the whole point... you need to have buyers around when it's time to sell

fatten up the pig before you slaughter it

the smaller players are gonna get slaughtered

don't know when... but it will happen

[uls]

mOrning

equities:

Equities finished lower after coming under heavy selling pressure during the opening hours amid disappointing housing data. Elsewhere, as a result of fresh strength in the USD index, WTI printed a one month low. The basic materials sector led the decline in the DJI, with Caterpillar (-0.92%) ending the session top of the laggers table. Stocks traded broadly sideways after the initial move lower, however edged higher in the closing stages to pare back some of the losses. Finally, at the closing bell DJI closed down 0.43% at 9706.99, S&P 500 closed down 0.96% at 1050.71 and NASDAQ100 closed down 0.84% at 1709.76.

fixed income:

Treasury prices finished the session higher, underpinned by fresh concerns surrounding the recovery in the housing market. Despite better than expected weekly jobless data earlier on, traders took note of a fresh deterioration in the housing market after existing home sales fell short of street estimates, which as a result saw prices move higher. Supporting strength in prices later on was strong demand for the USD 29bln 7y note auction, which drew a lower than expected yield and attracted decent demand from foreign investors. Finally, at the put close T-notes finished up 8+ ticks at 117.225.

another successful treasury auction

7 yr treasuries bid-to-cover ratio 2.79 (average of 2.48)

oil big drop -- $66

gold below $1,000 -- $995

[uls]

abundant liquidity in most economies = less need for more stimulus

Reuters
GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar climbs, stocks fall on stimulus exit talk
09.24.09, 11:27 PM EDT
MARKETS-GLOBAL (WRAPUP 1):GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar climbs, stocks fall on stimulus exit talk

* Japan bank shares sag on Nomura $5.6 bln share offering

* Dollar up, sterling under pressure

* Reduced stimulus measures could hit risk taking

[uls]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=ad4oOiSUzB1o

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose, heading for a weekly advance against the euro, on speculation Japanese exporters repatriated profits before the fiscal first half ends this month.

The dollar pared a weekly gain against the euro after Reuters said a draft communiqué by Group of 20 leaders pledged to maintain measures to bolster the global economy until a recovery is secured. The pound was set for a third weekly loss against the euro after the Newcastle Journal reported that Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the currency’s drop was “very helpful” in rebalancing the economy.

this is what the Bloomberg article is referring to:

Reuters
G20 pledges to keep stimulus, set reform-draft
09.25.09, 12:49 AM EDT
G20-COMMUNIQUE/DRAFT (URGENT):G20 pledges to keep stimulus, set reform-draft

stimulus continues "until recovery is secured"

dollar negative

[tidus1203]

Happy days (at least for me and not the Japanese exporters) are back. JPY doing 89.60 as of this writing against the greenback. Doing 131.80 against the Euro and killing the British Pound at 143.07...

[uls]

also bad for companies here that import from Japan

--

it's now the era of the dollar carry trade

--

Reuters
FOREX-Dollar hits 7-1/2-mth low vs yen, down vs euro
09.25.09, 11:00 AM EDT
MARKETS-FOREX (UPDATE 7):FOREX-Dollar hits 7-1/2-mth low vs yen, down vs euro

* Dollar slips after G20 draft communique

* Yen rallies, pushes through 90 yen per dollar

* Sterling takes a hit, falls to 4-mth low vs dollar

(Adds comment, U.S. data, updates prices)

[tidus1203]

What amazes me is the Yen is still so strong even with all the bullish factors coming in recently... It has never ever breached 100 ever since the Lehman crash last year.

[uls]

its coz the yen has been replaced by the USD as the carry trade currency

the era of the weak yen is over

the USD is now cheaper to borrow

[uls]

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

[tidus1203]

I think we are now in a new era of sub-100 Yen. The Japanese exporters better adapt and change their pricing and cost structure or else here comes the Koreans (with their very weak Won) and the Chinese (with their rapid growth)...