World economy talk

[tidus1203]

Right. Bumulusok sobra yung Euro eh halos kalahati ata ng Dollar Index is EUR/USD...

[tidus1203]

Talino talaga ng AIG regarding their previous reverse split of 1:20 last July 2009. Daming naipit na short seller sa AIG at nagkaroon ng short squeeze dahil nabawasan ng shares outstanding. Ayan nag mukang ok uli ang AIG at $54/share pero pre-reverse split prices nasa $3 lang yan maybe even less... Who is AIG trying to fool by reverse splitting to make their share price look good??

[uls]

didnt receive US market wrap hehe

---

AIG

[Monseratto]

Getting back at those who are holding up lending...

Bankers watch as Swedish interest rates goes subzero

For a world first, the announcement came with remarkably little fanfare.

Sweden is entering subzero interest rates, the first country to do so.

But last month, the Swedish Riksbank entered uncharted territory when it became the world's first central bank to introduce negative interest rates on bank deposits.

Even at the deepest point of Japan's financial crisis, the country's central bank shied away from such a measure, which is designed to encourage commercial banks to boost lending.

But, as they contemplate their exit strategies after the extraordinary measures of the past two years, central bankers will be monitoring the Swedish experiment closely.

Mervyn King, the Bank of England governor, has hinted he may follow the Swedish example as the danger of a so-called liquidity trap, where cash remains stuck in the banking system and does not filter out to the wider economy, is an increasing concern for the UK.

Hoarding is exactly what happened in Japan earlier this decade when the Bank of Japan implemented quantitative easing between 2001 and 2006.

Japanese banks refused to lend, in spite of central bank stimulus, because of fears over the dire state of the economy.

If this continues to happen in other economies, central bankers may be left with little choice but to follow the Swedish example. John Wraith, head of sterling rates product development at RBC Capital Markets, says: "The success of the UK's quantitative easing experiment hinges a lot on whether the banks will use the extra money they are getting for lending to individuals and businesses.

"If there is no sign of this over the next few months, then the Bank of England might consider a negative interest rate. In essence, it is a fine on banks that refuse to lend."

[uls]

good mOrning

equities:

The US equity markets finished the day in negative territory due to unloading of stocks and commodities from risk-averse investors in response to the prospect of a liquidity issue in China. Oil and gas sector led the fall in response to the heavy loss in WTI crude futures. Despite positive economic data released during the day, the market appeared to be preparing for the seasonally expected sell off in September. Elsewhere, positive M&A activity did little to lift the market and boost investor confidence. Besides the reaction to news from Asia there was little in terms of fresh news flow, hence the sideways movement for the majority of the session. At the closing bell; the DJI closed down 0.5% at 9496.28, the S&P 500 closed down 0.81% on 1020.63 and the Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.1% on 1625.19.

fixed income:

Treasury notes finished the session higher due to risk-averse investors no longer favouring the equity markets after heavy losses in China on the Shanghai Composite Index following news of possible liquidity constraints. Despite better than expected Chicago PMI data, UST’s continued their movement deeper into positive territory on touted asset reallocation due to month end buying. The trend higher continued for much of the day with lighter trading volumes exacerbating the price action. At the pit close UST’s finished up 18 ticks at 118.18.

oil fell below $70

[tidus1203]

Hahahaha sub-zero interest rates a regime of worthless paper. A sure fail experiment! It might move the economy for sure just like how an economy will move if one throws money out of a helicopter, but what's the point if the value of the money falls faster than the time it take you to say "quantitative easing"

[uls]

Morning

equities:

The major indices mostly ignored the positive economic data in the housing, manufacturing and construction sectors, finishing the session lower for a third consecutive day. Financials led the decline in the S&P500, with commodity based stocks closely behind to commence the beginning of what has historically been the worst month for equities. A subdued price action was seen for the majority of the session with positive news from Wells Fargo (-4.76%) just before the close failing to give equities any lift. The DJI closed down 1.96% on 9310.60, the S&P 500 down 2.21% on 998.04 and the Nasdaq 100 down 2% to close on 1968.89.

fixed income:

In spite of positive manufacturing and housing data, UST’s rose as the falling equities enhanced their safe-haven status. There were suggestions that the encouraging economic data released on the day was skewed due to the successful “cash for clunkers” programme hence why investors had a strong preference for UST’s. The rally saw T-notes reach a high of 119.03 and traded sideways for the closing stages of the session. UST’s finished up 10+ at 118.28.

oil fell below $69

[uls]

kinda big news tonight:

10:00 02Sep09 RTRS-BP PLC - BP ANNOUNCED TODAY A GIANT OIL DISCOVERY AT ITS TIBER PROSPECT IN THE DEEPWATER GULF OF MEXICO

10:00 02Sep09 RTRS-BP PLC - TIBER REPRESENTS BP’S SECOND MATERIAL DISCOVERY IN THE EMERGING LOWER TERTIARY PLAY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

10:02 02Sep09 RTRS-BP - TIBER IS ALSO CO-OWNED BY PETROBRAS AND CONOCOPHILLIPS

BP Announces Giant Oil Discovery In The Gulf Of Mexico
http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?...tentId=7055818

Release date: 02 September 2009

BP announced today a giant oil discovery at its Tiber Prospect in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico.

The well, located in Keathley Canyon block 102, approximately 250 miles (400 kilometres) south east of Houston, is in 4,132 feet (1,259 metres) of water. The Tiber well was drilled to a total depth of approximately 35,055 feet (10,685 metres) making it one of the deepest wells ever drilled by the oil and gas industry. The well found oil in multiple Lower Tertiary reservoirs. Appraisal will be required to determine the size and commerciality of the discovery.

"Tiber represents BP's second material discovery in the emerging Lower Tertiary play in the Gulf of Mexico, following our earlier Kaskida discovery," said Andy Inglis, chief executive, Exploration and Production. "These material discoveries together with our industry leading acreage position support the continuing growth of our deepwater Gulf of Mexico business into the second half of the next decade."

Tiber is operated by BP (NYSE: BP), with a 62 per cent working interest with co-owners Petrobras (NYSE: PBR/PBRA, 20 per cent) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP, 18 per cent).

[uls]

gOod mOrning

equities:

Equities had a subdued session; data released suggests the job market may prove to be a stumbling block in the path towards economic recovery hence the fall in consumer companies. Counteracting that weakness were commodity based stocks due to weakness in the Dollar index. The FOMC meeting notes failed to have a significant impact on the markets. Finally, the closing stages saw indices make a firm move lower and at the closing bell DJI closed down 0.32% at 9280.76, S&P 500 closed down 0.33% at 994.76 and NASDAQ100 closed down 0.10% at 1594.28

fixed income:

Disappointing ADP figures and the nervous sentiment among investors saw UST’s finish higher. Markets traded sideways upon release of the FOMC meeting notes due to the largely mixed inferences which could be made, the most concerning being the comments with regards to poor employment and sizeable risk of bank credit losses. Also adding to the lift in UST’s were some bearish comments from PIMCO’s Gross who commented on the attractiveness of long-term Treasury bonds. At the pit close T-notes finished up 16 ticks at 118.01.

NYMEX oil $$68.34

[uls]

i've been ignoring gold

not anymore...

[uls]

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

[tidus1203]

Hahahaha the sleeping giant has awaken! And this time its not even USD weakness related. Very bullish talaga gold, I have been bullish and still bullish!

[uls]

morning

equities:

Equities finished the session higher after better than expected chain store sales raised hopes that consumer confidence is beginning to return. However, offsetting the renewed risk appetite was another rise in the weekly jobless claims. Also, the release of somewhat disappointing non-manufacturing ISM data suppressed any early strength in stocks. With the data out of the way stocks settled in to range bound trade, however rallied to session highs in the final 15 minutes of trade with no clear fundamental driver behind the move. Finally, at the closing bell DJI closed up 0.69% at 9344.61, S&P 500 closed up 0.85% at 1003.24 and NASDAQ100 closed up 0.73% at 1605.98.

fixed income:

Treasuries were on the back foot throughout the session despite signs that job market fundamentals are continuing to deteriorate. Furthermore, t-notes were weighed on by looming supply after the Treasury said it would auction a total of USD 70bln in 3y, 10y and 30y notes. Nevertheless, touted profit taking amid the upcoming NFP report saw prices attempt to pare back some losses, hitting highs at 118.010. At the pit close T-notes finished down 9 ticks at 117.245.

[uls]

follow the money...

the amount of money flowing into gold ETFs the past few days is HUGE

GLD

[Monseratto]

follow the money...

the amount of money flowing into gold ETFs the past few days is HUGE

GLD

Inching closer back to US$ 1000/ounce...Oil steady at US$ 68/barrel.

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gold jumped to a six-month high, reaching $999.50 an ounce, on speculation that a weak dollar will boost demand for precious metals as an alternative investment. Silver climbed to the highest price in 13 months.

Gold has gained 4.6 percent this month in the biggest three-day rally since March.

[uls]

good morning

equities:

The markets largely ignored a spike in the unemployment rate, which now stands and 9.7% and instead looked at the moderation in job losses as a sign that the economy is recovering. A pick up in risk appetite caused USD index to move lower, which benefited the commodity related stocks. As such the industrial sector led the gains in the S&P500 index, with the likes of GE (3.12%) and Caterpillar (2.38%) posting strong gains. Elsewhere, the Nasdaq100 outperformed its peers for much of the session, led by Apple (+2.26%) after SocGen raised its price target to USD 225. Finally, at the closing bell DJI closed up 1.03% at 9441.27, S&P 500 closed up 1.31% at 1016.40 and NASDAQ100 closed up 2.00% at 1638.07.

fixed income:

Treasuries finished the session lower despite the unemployment rate jumping to its highest level since 1983. Traders instead focused on the smaller-than-expected drop in non-farm jobs. Price action immediately following the release was indecisive, however as market participants digested the NFP report T-notes settled into a downward trend and at the pit close finished down 22+ ticks at 117.015.

[uls]

why oil can't seem to hold above $70 lately?

CFTC crackdown on speculators

this week, the first casualty

an oil fund (DXO) is being liquidated

Deutsche Bank to take back all shares in leveraged oil ETN
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deu...res-2009-09-01

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Deutsche Bank said late Tuesday it would redeem all outstanding shares in a leveraged, oil exchange-traded note, saying changes in regulations prompted the move.

The German bank said it would redeem shares in the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long Exchange-Traded Notes for an unspecified value by Sept. 9. The ETN has assets of $426 million, according to Morningstar.

"Limitations imposed by the exchange on which Deutsche Bank manages the exposure of the notes have resulted in a 'regulatory event,'" it said in a statement.

Managers of exchange-traded funds and notes designed to track commodity prices have been halting new share issuance in recent weeks, in anticipation that a crackdown by commodities regulators on speculative trading will limit the number of futures contracts they can buy.

Plus, securities regulators last month issued a warning to individual investors about the dangers of buying into leveraged and inverse exchange-traded funds.

[Monseratto]

Gold continues to advance. Oil Steady at US$67-68.00/ barrel.

Gold Futures Advance to $1,000 an Ounce Amid Dollar Weaknes

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures rose to $1,000 an ounce for the first time in more than six months as a weaker dollar boosted the metal’s appeal as an alternative investment.

Governments cut interest rates and boosted spending to fight the worst recession since World War II, spurring investors to buy bullion as a hedge against potential inflation and debasement of currencies. The Dollar Index has lost 4.1 percent this year. Gold typically moves inversely to the U.S. currency.

“There’s not many good options for investors to hedge against a declining dollar and rising inflation,” Hwang Il Doo, head of trading with KEB Futures Co. in Seoul, said today. “Gold will rise to $1,100 an ounce by the end of the year, once physical demand from China and India adds fuel to the rally.”

Gold last traded at more than $1,000 on Feb. 20, the first time the metal had breached that price since March 2008. The futures then retreated as low as $865 on April 6.

“The reasons to own gold as an investment make sense,” Sydney-based Greg Gibbs, a Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc strategist, said in advance of the metal’s gain to $1,000 today. “It is a hedge against policy makers losing control of fiscal and quantitative monetary policies.”

U.S. President Barack Obama has increased U.S. marketable debt to an unprecedented $6.78 trillion as he borrows to spur the world’s largest economy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts that the U.S. will sell about $2.9 trillion of debt in the two years ending September 2010.

“Money has been printed massively,” said investor Jim Slater, who was deputy chairman of Galahad Gold Plc before it liquidated in 2008. “Inflation will follow fairly soon” and there may be “a hint of hyperinflation. Even a hint will be very good news for gold.”

The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the dollar’s value, declined for a third day today, trading near the lowest since Sept. 2008.

[uls]

yep yep

money keeps flowing into gold

momentum shifted from oil to gold

the CFTC will impose limits on how many contracts oil players can hold

that caused money to shift from oil to gold

and also, governments are spending (inflating, devaluing) their way out of this recession

people are losing confidence in fiat currencies

[tidus1203]

Sila ngayon lang ako matagal ng walang kumpyansa sa paper money. When this recession started I knew they are going to print their way out of it. Bad for paper money holders, good for the government and the economy. Kailangan lang talaga patience sa gold, pero it still beats holding paper money and leaving it in the bank to be rotted away by inflation.