Extracted from Pattaya Today...
http://www.pattayatoday.net/index.ph...e=news&id=2306
Thailand v Philippines
14. May 2007, 22:08
by Peter Lloyd
I am sitting in Liverpool in the UK writing this, having been travelling almost non-stop for the whole of April and all of May so far. I am almost over the shock of having bought the world’s most expensive kebab in a wealthy area of London at a posh kebab shop (which sounds like an oxymoron to me). The price – EIGHT HUNDRED AND FIFTY BAHT (12.50 GBP!)
Since my last column I have been to the Philippines, France, Italy, Dubai, the island of Zanzibar, off the coast of East Africa, where I was able to swim with (and photograph – see pic) a pod of wild dolphins, which was a superb experience, and I’m finally now back in the UK. I was impressed by my time in the Philippines, which, after the recent travails of Thailand actually appears to be an increasingly attractive alternative destination in which to live and invest, if you select your destination carefully. No sooner had I decided to write about it, than a big article appeared in the Wall Street Journal echoing my own increasingly favourable impressions of the Philippines from this trip. It gave the recent example of Texas Instruments building a second, 1 billion US$ assembly plant there, in preference to China which has seen land prices, rents and salaries soar on the east coast, and because they don’t want to put all their eggs in the China basket.
They were also swayed by the prevalence of a highly educated and fluent English-speaking population, which is why Vietnam didn’t get it. The same considerations are moving Intel towards locating a 2.5 billion US$ plant in the Philippines, where new tax legislation and greater investment brought about by a stabilizing political and economic landscape have breathed new life into the wider economy and boosted annual GDP figures which in turn attract even more investment though favourable publicity. I don’t think Thailand was ever in the running, but it goes to show what factors influence business decisions in the region. I spent a few days in Subic Bay, scuba diving on World War 2 shipwrecks, and I had a great time there. I also looked at the strong, well-run local economy and liked what I saw. Subic used to be a big US navy base, and is now a Freeport and a preferential economic zone which is attracting increasing business, and is expanding fast, with ongoing land reclamation projects and companies queuing up to build factories there.
At first I was bemused about Thailand’s recent decision to pay a massive amount of money to a PR firm in the USA, to counter Thailand’s recent, bad international publicity. The move once again suggested a petulant desire to catch up with Thaksin, who had previously and successfully instructed a PR firm of his own, which he has just sacked. But I now think Thailand needs to do everything it can to improve its international image, and fast. Whilst I was in Africa and the Philippines, and also now I am back in the UK, I have spoken to many people about Thailand, and everyone who asks me about Thailand usually starts with a negative comment about its visa tightening (see later) or about the increasingly poor business outlook for the country, or the military government, or the well-publicised disastrous recent capital controls and tightening up of the foreign ownership of businesses. It’s always a negative observation, never something positive. But not only is it individuals who hold these views. I have read numerous reports recently of multinationals shifting large investments away from Thailand, wary of inept economic mismanagement and military rule, the ongoing political turmoil, and amid concerns over when the next election will be held, and of falling tourist numbers, particularly from Asian (mostly Japanese and Korean) tourists, worried about personal security. All statistics detailing last year’s final quarter and this year’s first quarter foreign direct investment figures show dramatically weakened investment. Many companies are now looking to Asian neighbours – Malaysia and Vietnam in particular, but increasingly the Philippines, as alternative investment destinations. Unfortunately you don’t need to be a psychic to see the possibility of more pain still to come in the Thai economy as interest rates rise and the real estate market takes a further beating both domestically and from international investors and retirees. But out of real estate doom and gloom usually come buying opportunities, and I think towards the end of the year we will see some very interesting investment opportunities as developers and sellers cut prices to shift stock. Already the incentives offered by developers to real estate agents and to buyers are growing in attractiveness, and maybe this will ironically become the jump start the country needs – a plentiful, cheap supply of quality real estate just waiting to be bought at rock bottom prices.