Alonso running a lighter load is incorrect based on facts you presented. I still need to check if the pit data you presented is correct.
"tama ang ginamit na tyres ni alonso at mali ang tyres ni schumi" - this is the cause of Ferrari's lack of pace. Otherwise how would you explain a Renault overtaking a Ferrari in that condition so easily? Remember this track is like Monaco, in the sense that overtaking is very difficult.
Anyone is free to come out with the reason why Alonso is quick to overtake MS with a heavier car or something. But remember this, it is difficult to overtake Michael on-track because he is very aggressive in protecting his position. In Hungaroring, Michael showed how difficult it is to pass him in the RIGHT conditions. De La Rosa in the Mclaren took ages to pass him as well as, *sURPRISe*, also Mr. Alonso in the later stages of the race. I also base the hard-to-pass-MS-claim on previous races in the past, such as Magny Cours '00 when Coulthard got so frustrated being bottled up behind MS. In hindsight, it is indeed quite out-of-character of MS to let Alonso through so easily in the early stages of the race, unless there was something amiss in MS' car.
Despite Renault's technical superiority in this track, I do notice Alonso always outpacing his teammate, Fisichella all the time even on other tracks. It is truly an indication of a good driver.
It is would be unfair to make statements that claims about something without having anything concrete, which is way I disgress from predicting Michael will win on any car given it rains hard. Rather, I present evidences based on past races in which Michael had unexpected race results or position despite qualifying poorly but because of the rain, however, the tables were turned. Basing on historical performances, it is quite indicative MS will drive well in the rain but it is no guarantee of anything such as a sure win on anything. As mentioned before, several factors vary.
But with all things being equal or consistent across all other underlying factors, Michael has proven time and time again that driving aggressively in the rain is not a problem he should be worried about. Rubens is also another driver who will surely do well in the rain, based on past experiences. As for Alonso being a strong performer in the rain, it is unfair to assume that his performance in the dry would be instantly indicative of his performance in the wet. It is whole different ball game in the wet and unless he shown what he can do in the wet, it is difficult to pass a judgement on him, yet.





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