Oil Price Watch

[Ry_Tower]

No USD will gain, RISK OFF!

Just bear with me, hehe

I;m not yet familiar with all the jargons here. Learning it though...

Thanks

[uls]

NO..not a wrong line of questioning...kaya ko nasabi na ganyan is I really doubt na yang mga sinasabi na mga free marketers/speculators or players na yan (whatever it is called) is HOW sure are we na they were just individuals na playing like the Stock Market. Based on below news links..this is how i presumed/doubt my so called (conspiracy theory) of OPEC.. West's oil agency urges OPEC: pump more, or else | Reuters If this so called OPEC or sabi nyo nga CARTEL in activists terms is not in cahoots , with these speculators then we're not sana in this situation. But i do agree from Commodities players such as some tsikot guys here that wil be you point of view pure movements of Markets lang. Looking at the Big picture lang po ako pero siempre it is also a mere suspicion and no proof..except that were all affected by this incredulous pricing of oil.

that's big picture?

thinking OPEC is "in cahoots" with speculators is big picture?

you want big picture?

we are global macro. we follow everything. Greece running out of cash, Middle East tensions, Russian wheat, China inflation, US govt debt ceiling, crude oil reserves in Cushing Oklahoma, Federal Reserve, ECB, global equities, currencies, fixed income, commodities... everything

OPEC? haha

[Jiggs]

did ya read that article? eh kung nilalargahan ba ng OPEC ang production do you think these speculators eh makapag speculate pa...if you have sufficient or enough demands of oil. Kaso nga controlado nila ang output.

As I've said Market player point of view nyo yan..which i dont refute. Pero bottom line it's still the OPEC who handle the world oil supply...the perceived demand and shortage of supply is done by you Market players.

[uls]

did ya read that article? eh kung nilalargahan ba ng OPEC ang production do you think these speculators eh makapag speculate pa...if you have sufficient or enough demands of oil. Kaso nga controlado nila ang output.

As I've said Market player point of view nyo yan..which i dont refute. Pero bottom line it's still the OPEC who handle the world oil supply...the perceived demand and shortage of supply is done by you Market players.

all you rely on are news articles

that article didnt tell me anything i dont already know

let me tell you something that article of yours isnt telling you

do you know why it doesnt matter if Saudi Arabia increases oil output to make up for the supply disruption in Libya?

coz Saudi crude is different from Libyan crude

Libyan crude is very high quality crude

many countries in Europe import Libyan crude. their refineries can only process light sweet crude

with the Libya supply disruption, they have to buy light sweet from other producers -- which drove up the price of Brent crude

unfortunately, Brent pricing is used as a benchmark for pricing other crudes

so damay lahat

[Jiggs]

Libya is only a single OPEC member sweet producer which currently had internal issues...But.they are not the sole producer of Sweet Crude na member ng OPEC..andyan ang North and Central African country members na major players din of Sweet Crude.
Kaya nga If this so called OPEC will just put their acts together hindi naman magkakaganito ang situation. I repeat if there's a sustainable supply in the market walang magiging Speculation. Sumaket lang ang teeth ni Khadaffy nag react na agad ang Commodities markets..tsk tsk. Sabagay ganyan naman talga ang way of life na ngaun/....Why would you kill the goose that lays the golden eggs...magtiis tayo na dependent sa kanila.

Kaya nga am very much keen on the new technologies that will put Hydrocarbons a things of the past...sad to say medyo nasa conceptualized stage pa.

[niky]

Whether there's a sustainable supply or not, speculators will play the markets.

Even if there are other producers, the absence of Libya creates a shortfall in supply. Other countries will not boost production because they can't.

You think OPEC is monolithic? They aren't. When oil prices got low, some tried to restrict production to boost prices, while others were quite happy to sell at the reduced prices.

Oil versus Dollar speculation is what's driving oil prices. Not some vast conspiracy. Even when producers tried to conspire to limit production to boost price, they failed. The prices will only go up if commodity traders are willing to pay more for oil futures.

-

There are clear alternatives to oil. Simply: Don't drive. Don't ship. Don't use electricity.

[uls]

andyan ang North and Central African country members na major players din of Sweet Crude.

you're referring to Algeria, Angola, Nigeria

they don't have surplus production capacity

all their exports are already spoken for

when oil production in Libya was disrupted, there wasnt an extra supply of sweet crude in the market just waiting for a buyer

[uls]

big picture -- if you're looking for someone to blame, blame the Federal Reserve

it is the Fed's deliberate devaluation of the USD that caused prices of commodities to skyrocket

food, oil, metals... everything

[Ry_Tower]

There are clear alternatives to oil. Simply: Don't drive. Don't ship. Don't use electricity.

Ano yan dino age? hehe, wag naman, magtipid na lang best alternative.

Sanay naman tayong pinoy na maghigpit ng sinturon kapag kelangan.

[Jiggs]

big picture -- if you're looking for someone to blame, blame the Federal Reserve

it is the Fed's deliberate devaluation of the USD that caused prices of commodities to skyrocket

food, oil, metals... everything

Oil versus Dollar speculation is what's driving oil prices. Not some vast conspiracy. Even when producers tried to conspire to limit production to boost price, they failed. The prices will only go up if commodity traders are willing to pay more for oil futures.

-

There are clear alternatives to oil. Simply: Don't drive. Don't ship. Don't use electricity.

Cge na nga....dalawa kayo eh..heheheheh pero those two reason na you mentioned agree ako dyan.

As for the alternatives sana magprosper na ang experimental Fusion Reactor..Virtually inexhaustible energy that will last as soon as the lifetime of the Sun. And everyting will follow including mode of transport propulsion. And then the playing fields will be leveled...OPEC wala ng bisa ang powers nila. The only remaining will be the Commodities players na magpapahirap sa mundo..hehehe

[Ry_Tower]

big picture -- if you're looking for someone to blame, blame the Federal Reserve

it is the Fed's deliberate devaluation of the USD that caused prices of commodities to skyrocket

food, oil, metals... everything

Hope you could enlighten me, if USD devalues, that means other countries/traders can buy more of these stuff (food, oil, metals etc.) that is why their prices go up due to increased demand. Tama ba pagkakaintindi ko in laymans term?

[Ry_Tower]

Cge na nga....dalawa kayo eh..heheheheh pero those two reason na you mentioned agree ako dyan.

As for the alternatives sana magprosper na ang experimental Fusion Reactor..Virtually inexhaustible energy that will last as soon as the lifetime of the Sun. And everyting will follow including mode of transport propulsion. And then the playing fields will be leveled...OPEC wala ng bisa ang powers nila. The only remaining will be the Commodities players na magpapahirap sa mundo..hehehe

Or yung hydrogen power maging viable na din sana.

[uls]

for now, i can say the recent oil price bubble has popped

remember it was fear of Saudi disruption that caused oil price to skyrocket (after Libya production shutdown)

fear that protests similar to Egypt and Libya would happen in Saudi Arabia

Brent crude passed $125/barrel in April

but the Saudi disruption didnt happen

so the price of oil returned to a somewhat fair level

some of the speculative premium was taken out (they say speculation adds about $15 to $20 to the price of oil)

from here on, oil price would remain volatile

[tidus1203]

I would disagree, there was never a price bubble for oil. The rise has been quite orderly with disruptions like this one and 2 weeks ago... Oil is still bullish at the moment... However, we need some kind of massive correction to remove the weak hands...

[uls]

i'm using the word "bubble" loosely. not strict definition

the 2-month run-up to $115 (WTI) and $127 (Brent) was fueled by speculative frenzy

[niky]

Hydrogen as a fuel probably will never be a big part of our fueling infrastructure. Storage is very, very expensive, and the most cost-effective way to make it is to crack it from natural gas... which we could simply use as a fuel, itself... Natural Gas can be used with current engine technology with almost no changes, just like Hydrogen. It still requires high pressure storage, but at least it's not quite as expensive (which is why we have CNG buses locally).

If we fall back on solar-powered hydrolysis set-ups... worse... electricity-to-hydrogen conversion is much less efficient than cracking. Betterr to fuel vehicles directly with electricity, considering hydrogen storage is comparable to battery storage in terms of up-front cost, anyway.

Fusion, sadly, is probably still another fifty years away (the joke amongst the scientific community... it's always fifty years away...). Different research groups and governments have already poured billions of dollars into fusion research, but we're only just starting to get into the break-even range in terms of energy production.

[uls]

Hope you could enlighten me, if USD devalues, that means other countries/traders can buy more of these stuff (food, oil, metals etc.) that is why their prices go up due to increased demand. Tama ba pagkakaintindi ko in laymans term?

that's how the media explains it. when the dollar falls, it makes dollar-denominated commodities like oil cheaper for holders of stronger currencies

but this is how it works -- people who have their wealth in dollars naturally want to preserve their wealth

their goal is to preserve buying power. inflation erodes the buying power of money. so when the dollar is falling, investors would put their money in assets that would hold value. like gold, and other commodities

the Fed has been deliberately devaluing the USD (zero rates, QE)

so dollars have been driven into commodities to preserve value

so we get high food and fuel prices

--

and that's why we see commodities moving in opposite direction of the dollar

when the dollar strengthens, commodities prices fall

but the correlation is not 100%

there are times the correlation breaks

[Ry_Tower]

that's how the media explains it. when the dollar falls, it makes dollar-denominated commodities like oil cheaper for holders of stronger currencies

but this is how it works -- people who have their wealth in dollars naturally want to preserve their wealth

their goal is to preserve buying power. inflation erodes the buying power of money. so when the dollar is falling, investors would put their money in assets that would hold value. like gold, and other commodities

the Fed has been deliberately devaluing the USD (zero rates, QE)

so dollars have been driven into commodities to preserve value

so we get high food and fuel prices

--

and that's why we see commodities moving in opposite direction of the dollar

when the dollar strengthens, commodities prices fall

but the correlation is not 100%

there are times the correlation breaks

Sort of imbalance correlation pala. Tama ba?

Thanks for bearing with my queries ha, just hoping to learn more from you gurus'.

[uls]

Sort of imbalance correlation pala. Tama ba?

Thanks for bearing with my queries ha, just hoping to learn more from you gurus'.

inverse correlation. one goes up, the other goes down

[Ry_Tower]

inverse correlation. one goes up, the other goes down

Yun pala, thanks.