Oil Price Watch

[uls]

that didn't take long

brent $71



if this keeps up there will be another price hike next week

[uls]

the cure to low prices is low prices

the panic caused by $30/$40 oil made producers take action

OPEC supply cut + stronger global demand rebalanced the oil market

factor in the weak dollar and we have $70 oil

--

Even at $70, OPEC will continue to tighten supply

they tend to tighten the market too long after a price slump

we're not gonna see oil prices coming down anytime soon

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Brent's persistent premium over WTI is a reflection of high level of oil stocks in Cushing Oklahoma

but stocks have been drawn down recently

the gap between the price of Brent and WTI has narrowed to $7 from $5

[uls]

the gap between the price of Brent and WTI has narrowed to $7 from $5

Correction: narrrowed to $5 from $7

Update: narrowed to $4

--

WTI is now the most crowded spec long among commodities

[CVT]

Did I understand correctly that the train excise tax will be suspended if this reaches $80?

[br733]

from isla lipana & co. / pwc philippines:

'The scheduled increase in the excise tax on fuel for period covering 2018 to 2020 shall be suspended if the average Dubai Crude Oil price based on Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) for three months prior to the scheduled increase reaches or exceeds USD80 per barrel.'

Which means future increases in excise taxes for fuel, that is for 2019 and 2020, will not be implemented if the dubai crude oil price on platts singapore averages 80 or more USD/bbl. in the 3 months preceeding date of implementation. So we have to watch out for the dubai crude price from oct -dec 2018 and oct -dec 2019.

[br733]

dubai and wti is almost the same price right now at $66.xx

[br733]

for dubai crude to reach usd80/bbl, prevailing pump prices would have to rise by an estimated php4.00-5.50 for both gasoline and diesel assuming constant forex at 51,

[ano727]

Forecast for tomorrow? Thanks


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[uls]

^^^

Sir,


TV Patrol: Taas-presyo ng mga produktong petrolyo, nakaamba - YouTube

[Monseratto]

For the 5th straight week, may OIL PRICE HIKE na naman next week!!

Estimate:

DIESEL/GASOLINE/KEROSENE = P0.40-P0.50/liter

[ano727]

Thanks for the heads up. Time to fill!


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[uls]

thought brent would retreat after inability to sustain $70

but the bulls are in charge

[uls]

lately i'm not only watching brent

also keeping an eye on WTI

euro-bull bathory goes further

says WTI is following the euro higher

she sent me this chart

correlation of euro and WTI



tight

[uls]

so yes, the weak dollar is indeed a factor behind rising oil prices

[uls]

dollar up

brent falls below 70

it's all about the dollar this time

fundamentals are secondary

[uls]

brent under 68

if this is sustained to the end of the week may rollback yan

[br733]

assuming brent stays at 68 for the remainder of the week, there still wont be any rollbacks next week.

best case is no adjustment for diesel to minimal inc for gasoline.

if brent shoots up for the remainder of the week, then its going to be 6 straight weeks of price increases.

the usd is weaker and yet peso is still weakening vis a vis the dollar. how bad is the peso.

[stayhungry]

brent under 68

if this is sustained to the end of the week may rollback yan

Hehe let's not hold our breath. Some of these oil companies are like vampires who just tasted a bit of blood with the price increases.

[uls]

brent is clawing its way back to 69

[uls]

And brent clawed its way back above 69