What might have been had 'Ninoy' not been killed?

[Zeus]

What might have been had ‘Ninoy’ not been killed--3 views



By Norman Bordadora, Volt Contreras
Inquirer
Last updated 07:25pm (Mla time) 08/21/2007


MANILA, Philippines -- What if former senator Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr. had not been martyred? What if, 24 years ago, cheers rather than gunshots at the airport greeted his return from self-exile?
What if the charismatic opposition leader was simply whisked back to prison by his military escorts, able to resume his battle against the Marcos dictatorship?
Two of Aquino’s political contemporaries suggested that the struggle for Philippine democracy could have taken a longer, rougher path, not necessarily leading to something as glorious as the 1986 People Power revolution, had August 21, 1983 merely marked a politician’s homecoming and not a hero’s murder.
A darker scenario was offered by a noted educator who has actively espoused Aquino’s legacy among the youth: The country might have fallen under a military junta had the former senator lived on without successfully leading ouster moves against Ferdinand Marcos.
Edsa could still have happened, but only ’’much later,’’ according to former Senate president Jovito Salonga, one of Aquino’s senior colleagues in the pre-Martial Law Liberal Party (LP).
Salonga said Aquino "expected that he would be imprisoned again’’ in Fort Bonifacio but “he also expected that Marcos will call him out’’ for help in solving the communist insurgency and the Moro separatist movement.
Salonga said Aquino also expected Marcos to release him from detention and allow the restoration of democracy on the condition that the dictator and his family leave the country with their wealth.
Aquino, however, still didn’t know at the time that the Marcoses had already been “hiding their wealth abroad... as early as 1968,” he said.
Salonga also disclosed that until 1982, or a year before Aquino decided to return from exile in the United States, he was entertaining thoughts of a “compromise’’ with the dictator.
The compromise was to have been in the form of seats in the Marcos Cabinet for opposition leaders like Aquino himself, Salonga, Lorenzo Tañada and Jose W. Diokno.
But in the end, Aquino threw out the idea.
And Salonga said his friend came to such resolve partly after being moved by a film he saw around the time, the award-winning masterpiece “Gandhi.’’
In the interview, Salonga said he had put on record such episodes on Aquino -- or how he saw the man -- in his memoirs “A Journey of Struggle and Hope,’’ published in 2002.
Upon Aquino’s return, the political opposition itself was also expecting a “power struggle’’ to erupt between him and then LP president, former senator Gerardo Roxas, Salonga said.
With apparent frankness, Salonga said he didn’t think Aquino would have been allowed by the LP at that time to take on the party leadership due to his earlier idea of reconciliation with the dictator.
"Gerry Roxas would have been chosen as the leader in an LP convention," Salonga said.
But for Senator Joker Arroyo, a human rights lawyer during the Marcos dictatorship and one of the opposition leaders waiting for Aquino at the airport in August 1983, the martyred hero would have readily taken on the leadership of the opposition when he came home.
He said the Marcos regime was already teetering on the edge in 1983 because of the economic crisis.
Aquino’s assassination, he said, hastened the dictatorship’s fall.
"Marcos’ problem at that time was more financial than political. Our economy was in tatters. We could not pay our foreign debts. In fact, we defaulted on our payments," Arroyo said.
"He [Marcos] needed the appearance of stability to fix it. Ninoy’s coming home would cause political instability and thereby compound the financial instability, an untenable situation," Arroyo explained.
Arroyo said Aquino and Marcos knew what each other was thinking at that time and calibrated each other’s moves vis-a-vis the political and economic situation.
"Both Ninoy and Marcos knew and understood this only too well. In that deathly situation, there lies Ninoy’s greatness and Marcos’ folly," Arroyo said. "Faced with certain death, Ninoy braved coming home. Marcos allowed [Ninoy’s death].’’
Former De La Salle University president Brother Rolando Dizon, who in 2003 launched the Benigno Aquino Jr. Awards for Nationalism, fielded the “what if’’ questions in broader strokes:
“To a large extent, we owe to him the freedom we enjoy today. We would still probably be under martial law [had Aquino not returned and paid for the act with his life].’’
Since the already ailing Marcos was not grooming a “logical successor’’ at the time, the strongman would have likely stayed in power till he died.
“And because he made sure there would be nobody strong enough to threaten his dictatorship, [his demise] would have led to a power struggle, possibly between [his widow] Imelda Marcos and his [Armed Forces chief] Fabian Ver,’’ he said.
Dizon shared his views with the Philippine Daily Inquirer, parent company of INQUIRER.net, at last Saturday’s rites for the 3rd Aquino Awards at the University of the Philippines.




What's your view(s)?

[chua_riwap]

If Ninoy was not killed and still alive........matino si Kris.

Seriously, siguro siya ang naging president natin after Marcos.

[Josh0027]

he should have been the next in line for the presidency. that's what i know.

[cutedoc]

maybe he could be the president after marcos but then again not, marcos reign supremacy above all then, he controls everything during those time and it was only that death which made ninoy very very famous, the assasination was bound to make a big news that would shake the nation.

if he wasnt killed then, money will still talk. Marcoses still holds every aces within their hand.

[oldblue]

pareho pa din sa tingin ko parati pa din tayo late filipino time hehehe

[empy]

Marcos as dictator for life?

best case scenario = Lee Kuan Yew and Singapore

worst case = Fidel Castro and Cuba

[jcastillo932]

Kris is a Senator now and not married to cheap Basketball Player.

[Galactus]

If Ninoy had not been killed, then 20 years down the line...Kris Aquino would be President! She would go down in history as the 1st President afflicted with STD.

[Autobeat]

Marcos as dictator for life?

best case scenario = Lee Kuan Yew and Singapore

worst case = Fidel Castro and Cuba

Interesting. Could we have developed nga sana to something like Singapore?

Some good/lighter side specualtions nga that I'ved heard from some adults of early 80s of what could have happened if Marcos stayed on:

1. Minimal or no squatters? Nag-increase lang daw yung squatter problems noong nawala si Marcos?
2. Minimal city trash problem? Adults say, serious daw noon yung tapat mo linis mo?
2. Disneyland Philippines? Rumor they said then was that Disneyland was being planned in the then generally empty area near the now existing SM Fairview, and other new subdivisions?
3. Philippines would have maintained being one of the top developing countries in South East Asia?

Baka may alam tungkol dito yung mga ibang tsikoteers of that time?

Siyempre, these may have come with the price of the things that Marcos has been accussed of doing.

Or puwede nga yung worst case scenario ni M54.

[niky]

That's based on the idea that Marcos was handling the economy well... Our economy was already in trouble in the early 80's, due to the embezzlement of funds by the Marcoses.

What would have happened if Ninoy hadn't died, and gone into detention instead?

We might have seen a military coup d'etat. If the junta that masterminds the coup were smart, they would free the opposition leaders and invite them to form a transitional government en route to elections. Or maybe not.

Or we could have had "People Power" anyway, with the people rallied by calls from Ninoy in jail. I don't think he would have accepted the role of President... maybe "Prime Minister" in absence of a new President.

At least he'd have been a better political leader than Cory was... in which case, reconstruction of our economy would have take less time... fewer or no coup attempts... less widespread corruption...

Or, he would have been a righteous pain in the ass to the corrupt, and they would have killed him after Marcos's exit, anyway.