Nag-iba na Comelec at Namfrel Results?

**pup2** · May 23rd, 2007 02:56 PM

Originally Posted by fourtheboys96

+or- 3% of statistical error, personally i think is not huge.

regarding the "millions who were not included in the survey", it is impossible to include all registered voters in a survey that is why we have the thing called sampling. this is an accepted method in research and surveys. if sampling and the actual survey IS DONE PROPERLY, it can accurately predict the outcome of the election.

with regards to sample size of around 2,500 to 3,000 - maybe the statisticians here can tell us if its is enough.

anyway, accdg to some people in UP Diliman, SWS and Pulse Asia have been quite accurate in their predictions in the past elections.

Sa laki nung total voting population, +/- 3% can affect 2-3 positions as far as I can remember from past elections. Sa 10M pa lang 600,000 na yung +/- 3%. Sa places from 11-14 mga ganun lang ang lamangan if not less. I agree it won't change who the majority actually is so in that sense maliit.

Still kung madadaya ka by 600,000 votes malaki yun para dun sa hindi nanalo na dapat sana ay panalo.

**niky** · May 23rd, 2007 03:51 PM

Yeah... to those candidates hanging above and below 12th spot, that 3% is a life or death matter...

Still, I'm no expert on the past reliability of these surveys, but personally, I don't feel that anything less than 50k respondents would be representative. Still, it's all in how you do it.

Let's just watch how things develop.

**fourtheboys96** · May 23rd, 2007 05:48 PM

yes i agree that 600K is a lot of votes but the term "large" or "huge" is relative. that is why the error is expressed in percentage. and in my opinion, -+3% is just reasonable.

sample size of 50K??? i haven't heard of any survey with this many respondents. might as well wait for the actual election than interview 50K individuals.

anyway, may point is the survey is a good tool in the election campaign of the candidates. it is not perfect that is why they have statistical error in it. it is up to us or the candidates on how to benefit from the results.

**pup2** · May 24th, 2007 01:42 AM

Originally Posted by fourtheboys96

yes i agree that 600K is a lot of votes but the term "large" or "huge" is relative. that is why the error is expressed in percentage. and in my opinion, -+3% is just reasonable.

sample size of 50K??? i haven't heard of any survey with this many respondents. might as well wait for the actual election than interview 50K individuals.

anyway, may point is the survey is a good tool in the election campaign of the candidates. it is not perfect that is why they have statistical error in it. it is up to us or the candidates on how to benefit from the results.

Agree naman ako in principle and in general.Pero +- 3% is not small -- it only sounds small. It's actually a 6% margin of error kasi your votes can be understated by 3% and your opponents votes can be overstated by 3%. There's also this thing called confidence level (that's where sample population comes around -- but that's an entirely different matter).Don't get me wrong. I'm glad there are surveys -- but we need to be able not only to understand but to be able to know when they are important and when they are not. In this case, said survey is NOT good from the distance from 13th place until the 6% error margin is finished (assuming 100% confidence). That means kung dikitan ang labanan, it becomes less useful.OTH, it practically rules out a poossibility na mabaligtad ang forecast results from 6-4-2 in favor of GO to, say, 6-4-2 in favor of TU -- the cheating would be too obvious. It doesn't mean however na ang tunay na result ay hindi 8-2-2 for GO talaga.Kung simpleng usapan lang, I'd be willing to go with the odds (that what stats are for anyway) -- but this is the voice of the people. I don't think we should ne happy with anything less than 99.99% accuracy and 99.99% confidence level. And that's why I think NAMFREL/PPCRV should finish until THE END and as accurately as possible.

**kokey** · May 24th, 2007 05:42 PM

Nakinig ba ninyo ang story ni Arnold Clavio nung NAMFREL Volunteer pa siya. Nagkakadayaan din pala sa NAMFREL...

Nawalan na rin tuloy ako tiwala sa NAMFREL....

**pup2** · May 25th, 2007 05:19 AM

Originally Posted by kokey

Nakinig ba ninyo ang story ni Arnold Clavio nung NAMFREL Volunteer pa siya. Nagkakadayaan din pala sa NAMFREL...

Nawalan na rin tuloy ako tiwala sa NAMFREL....

Hindi. Ano ba sabi? Kasing grabe ba ni Abalos?

I know for a fact that a local NAMFREL leader is supportive of a certain local candidate. I know for a fact, though, that he didn't let his feelings intrude on his results. Natalo kandidato niya eh. hahaha.

**lolo pepe** · May 25th, 2007 09:23 AM

Originally Posted by vhenok

It doesn't matter, anyway, partial pa lang naman. Basta importante dapat mag-meet sila sa Final. Otherwise, hhhmmmmm!

NAMFREL and COMELEC will not arrive on the same tallies or numbers.

why?

because NAMFREL is a private entity, mostly financed by the opposition. on the other hand, COMELEC is a Government entity. both organizations can be manipulated by their masters due to self-vested political interests...

**pup2** · May 25th, 2007 08:12 PM

Originally Posted by lolo pepe

NAMFREL and COMELEC will not arrive on the same tallies or numbers.

why?

because NAMFREL is a private entity, mostly financed by the opposition. on the other hand, COMELEC is a Government entity. both organizations can be manipulated by their masters due to self-vested political interests...

Opposition ba si Concepcion? Dati nga GMA din lumabas sa kanila kahit di nila tinapos di ba?

K lang naman hindi eksakto pero dapat ang kandidatong papasok sa top 12 dapat pareho.

**kokey** · May 26th, 2007 02:06 AM

Originally Posted by pup2

Hindi. Ano ba sabi? Kasing grabe ba ni Abalos?

I know for a fact that a local NAMFREL leader is supportive of a certain local candidate. I know for a fact, though, that he didn't let his feelings intrude on his results. Natalo kandidato niya eh. hahaha.

Nangyari during the time of Marcos... Sa dala daw nya ER epanalo si Macoy pero sa result ng NAMFREL e talo si Macoy...

Kaya daw pala naging DTI secretary si Conception during the time of Cory....

**oldblue** · May 26th, 2007 02:37 PM

we really can't stop this. papasukin at papasukin talaga ang NAMFREL or COMELEC ng mga infiltrators ng mga pulitiko.

parang simbahan, pumapasok ang mga bakla at pedophiles and even criminals who want to make a living out of donations

but at the national level, siguro napakahirap gawin yan. Presidente nga natin hindi naman tayo ma-control 100% nationally eh. Namfrel pa madadaya tayo.