Nag-iba na Comelec at Namfrel Results?

[pup2]

Mas ahead ang Namfrel sa bilangan (siyempre). Pareho naman sila sa umpisa na 8-2-2. Pero ngayon 8-2-2 pa din sa Namfrel samantalang 6-4-2 na sa Comelec (as I predicted in another topic)? Umpisa na ba ng gapangan? Sana naman tapusin ng Namfrel ang inumpisahan nila unlike before na hindi pa tapos ay tumigil na. Kailangan ng Pinoy ng katotohanan at hustisya !!

[oldblue]

depende naman siguro kung ano probinsya inuna nila. let's wait na lang kung mag-tally yun dalawa in the end.

[j_avonni]

Ilang percent na ba ang na-canvass?

[mazdamazda]

Errr... talagang may discrepancy yan since iba iba ang source nila or yung binibilang na provinces.

[XTO]

posible kung wala sana silang history ng pandaraya noon.

[fourtheboys96]

Mas ahead ang Namfrel sa bilangan (siyempre). Pareho naman sila sa umpisa na 8-2-2. Pero ngayon 8-2-2 pa din sa Namfrel samantalang 6-4-2 na sa Comelec (as I predicted in another topic)? Umpisa na ba ng gapangan? Sana naman tapusin ng Namfrel ang inumpisahan nila unlike before na hindi pa tapos ay tumigil na. Kailangan ng Pinoy ng katotohanan at hustisya !!

sa survey before the election 6-4-2 ata yung lumabas so medjo consistent pa din naman kung yun ang pagbabasehan. although pwede pa magbago kasi meron statistical error yung survey di ba.

[niky]

Huge statistical error. Surveys are often only done in limited areas, and can't match the millions of respondents who aren't available for surveying.

http://eleksyon2007a.inquirer.net/tally.htm

From the current tally, doesn't seem like a huge difference... yet.

[pup2]

Gusto ko lang tapusin ng NAMFREL yung results unlike before kasi I have a nagging suspicion na talagang 8-2-2 or 7-3-2 ang score at hindi 6-4-2. Yung Maguindanao result alone could affect 1 or 2 places. Mabuti NAMFREL decided to discard it. AFAIK, doon pa lang, hindi na sila tally.

[vhenok]

It doesn't matter, anyway, partial pa lang naman. Basta importante dapat mag-meet sila sa Final. Otherwise, hhhmmmmm!

[lolo pepe]

It doesn't matter, anyway, partial pa lang naman. Basta importante dapat mag-meet sila sa Final. Otherwise, hhhmmmmm!

NAMFREL and COMELEC will not arrive on the same tallies or numbers.

why?

because NAMFREL is a private entity, mostly financed by the opposition. on the other hand, COMELEC is a Government entity. both organizations can be manipulated by their masters due to self-vested political interests...

[fourtheboys96]

Huge statistical error. Surveys are often only done in limited areas, and can't match the millions of respondents who aren't available for surveying.

http://eleksyon2007a.inquirer.net/tally.htm

From the current tally, doesn't seem like a huge difference... yet.

+or- 3% of statistical error, personally i think is not huge.

regarding the "millions who were not included in the survey", it is impossible to include all registered voters in a survey that is why we have the thing called sampling. this is an accepted method in research and surveys. if sampling and the actual survey IS DONE PROPERLY, it can accurately predict the outcome of the election.

with regards to sample size of around 2,500 to 3,000 - maybe the statisticians here can tell us if its is enough.

anyway, accdg to some people in UP Diliman, SWS and Pulse Asia have been quite accurate in their predictions in the past elections.

[pup2]

+or- 3% of statistical error, personally i think is not huge.

regarding the "millions who were not included in the survey", it is impossible to include all registered voters in a survey that is why we have the thing called sampling. this is an accepted method in research and surveys. if sampling and the actual survey IS DONE PROPERLY, it can accurately predict the outcome of the election.

with regards to sample size of around 2,500 to 3,000 - maybe the statisticians here can tell us if its is enough.

anyway, accdg to some people in UP Diliman, SWS and Pulse Asia have been quite accurate in their predictions in the past elections.

Sa laki nung total voting population, +/- 3% can affect 2-3 positions as far as I can remember from past elections. Sa 10M pa lang 600,000 na yung +/- 3%. Sa places from 11-14 mga ganun lang ang lamangan if not less. I agree it won't change who the majority actually is so in that sense maliit.

Still kung madadaya ka by 600,000 votes malaki yun para dun sa hindi nanalo na dapat sana ay panalo.

[niky]

Yeah... to those candidates hanging above and below 12th spot, that 3% is a life or death matter...

Still, I'm no expert on the past reliability of these surveys, but personally, I don't feel that anything less than 50k respondents would be representative. Still, it's all in how you do it.

Let's just watch how things develop.