Anthropogenic Climate Change: Skepticism and why science is never settled

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to have a better grasp of what the pause is, it's important to know what the data sets used are

All temperature diagrams shown below have 1979 as starting year. This roughly marks the beginning of the recent period of global warming, after termination of the previous period of global cooling from about 1940. In addition, the year 1979 also represents the starting date for the satellite-based global temperature estimates (UAH and RSS).

For the three surface air temperature estimates shown (HadCRUT, NCDC and GISS) the reference period differs. HadCRUT refers to the official “normal” WMO period 1961-1990, while NCDC and GISS as reference instead uses 1901-2000 and 1951-1980, respectively, which results in higher positive temperature anomalies.

For all three surface air temperature records, but especially NCDC and GISS, administrative changes to anomaly values are quite often introduced, even for observations several years back in time. Some changes may be due to the delayed addition of new station data, while others probably have their origin in a change of technique to calculate average values. It is clearly impossible to evaluate the validity of such administrative changes for the outside user of these records. In addition, the three surface records represent a blend of sea surface data collected moving ships or by other means, plus data from land stations of partly unknown quality and unknown degree of representativeness for their region. Many of the land stations have also moved geographically during their existence, and their instrumentation changed.

The satellite temperature records also have their problems, but these are generally of a more technical nature and therefore correctable. In addition, the temperature sampling by satellites is more regular and complete on a global basis than that represented by the surface records.

It therefore is realistic to recognise that the temperature records are not of equal scientific quality. At the same time the big efforts being put into all five temperature databases should be gratefully acknowledged by all interested in climate science.

On this background, the present website has decided to operate with three quality classes (1-3) for global temperature records, with 1 representing the highest quality level:

Quality class 1: The satellite records (UAH and RSS).

Quality class 2: The HadCRUT surface record.

Quality class 3: The NCDC and GISS surface records.

The main reasons for discriminating between the three surface records are the following:

1) While both NCDC and GISS often experience quite large administrative changes, and therefore essentially must be considered unstable records, the changes introduced to HadCRUT are fewer and smaller. For obvious reasons, as the past do not change, an unstable record cannot be correct all the time.

2) A comparison with the superior Argo float sea surface temperature record shows that while HadCRUT uses a sea surface record (HadSST3) nicely in concert with the Argo record, a comparison between Argo and NCDC and GISS data shows a marked discrepancy.

The differences between the individual diagrams shown below demonstrate the difficulties associated with calculating a correct average global temperature. Es*** et al. (2006) have an interesting discussion of the whole concept of calculating an average global temperature. In addition, global surface air temperatures should only be considered a poor indicator of global climate heat changes, as air has relatively little mass associated with it. Ocean heat changes remain the dominant factor for global heat changes. Global air temperatures, however, continues to attract widespread interest, and many scientist assume that the air temperature at least may be considered a useful proxy for the present state of the global climate system.

In the temperature diagrams below, the thick line represents the running 37 month average and the thin line the monthly temperature. Both values are the result of a number of mathematical manipulations with the original temperature data, and especially so the running average. In the text below each diagram you will find a link enabling you to download and analyze the data yourself. All diagrams below are using the same temperature scale, to enable easy visual comparison.

climate4you GlobalTemperatures

I have previously used HadCRUT in this thread (mostly to the "deniers" disadvantage) and opted not to post UAH and RSS data set so you won't say I'm "biased"... note: this is unadjusted data so it's about as raw as it gets

because like it or not, it goes like this:



on the other hand, NCDC and GISS data sets are about as consistent as the methodology of the Fed when it comes to measuring unemployment, and inflation. the recent most noteworthy example is last year when NOAA adjusted the previous decade to make it look like it's warming faster and refute IPCC's claim that there's a warming pause.

see? this is why climate science is never settled.

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What They Haven't Told You about Climate Change - YouTube

Just putting it out there :D

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but wait! there's more:

the latest and greatest doomsday scenario for mankind! Ocean Acidification because of CO2

hahaha

but of course you won't hear about: Coccolithophore - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

and about this place: White Cliffs of Dover - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

and how all that 7000 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere hundreds of millions of years ago was sequestered at the bottom of the ocean

oh the humanity! we're all doomed!

meanwhile... this fish isn't complaining.

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The ‘Karlization’ of global temperature continues – this time RSS makes a massive upwards adjustment | Watts Up With That?

if it's showing a pause, fudge the data! hahaha

in retrospect, can't believe I'm taking "Ocean acidification" and a pH of 8.1 in the same sentence seriously...

hahaha

speaking of which, "ocean acidification" and burning fossil fuels were found to be unrelated

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2669930

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Positive water feedback not found in the Mt. Pinatubo eruption | Watts Up With That?

this article explains well why IPCC climate models are off the mark.

their models assume that humidity is always constant when it's not. Thus, we get a disconnect with the current pause with increasing CO2.

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Sky criminals

GEOENGINEERING! Yes, it's a thing.

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Portland School Board Bans Literature Denying Climate Change | Zero Hedge

of course! when you can no longer deny the overwhelming facts that disagree with their world view

ban 'em!

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Catherine McKenna on Twitter: "DYK: The threat of #climatechange is not gender neutral? Women are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than men."

DYK: The threat of #climatechange is not gender neutral? Women are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than men.

lol

I guess every issue is now a gender issue

because it's 2016

HAHAHA

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This is a good crash course video of why and how climate changes.



and just as some of us have been posting for a while, the warm trend is in the process of ending.

people might have to revise their understanding of CO2.

rise of CO2 levels will be seen as a trailing indicator or effect of warming, not the primary cause

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OMG arctic ice sheet is melting. but all those poor polar bears.

Global Warming Expedition Stopped In Its Tracks By Arctic Sea Ice | Zero Hedge