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June 20th, 2005 08:25 PM #1
Ever since nag labas yung Jueteng and "Hello Garci?" scandals, the US$ has moved steadily upward. After holding steady at the 54-54.80 PhP/ $1 level for 3-4 months, it is about to break the 56 PhP / $1 level. Todays close is 55.74 PhP/ $1. Do you think it will get past the 56.50 PhP level and beyond? World Oil Prices are also at a record high now, paano na naman to?
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June 20th, 2005 08:54 PM #2actually, if you start with say....President Marcos...the peso to dollar ration has always been on the rise. Sure, every now and then there will be times when the peso rises in comparison to the dollar, but it's a sure thing. The peso to dollar ratio will eventually go up. In the short run, the graph goes up and down, but in the long run, it's a steady climb. Just recently I remember the news making a big deal of the peso going up to 54 from 55 plus...but now it's back to 55 plus again....I think it's a sure thing that eventually, it will always go up.
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June 20th, 2005 09:00 PM #3
Can any of you remember the time back in 1995 yata, when the minimum fare sa jeepney was 75-centavos only? I think the peso exchange rate back then was around P24 to $1. :praning:
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Nagtatanim ng kamote
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June 21st, 2005 03:42 PM #4The US$ is already past P55.9+ today. Dunno if it will close at P56.00...
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June 21st, 2005 03:58 PM #5It's mainly brought by political uncertainties and also afected by the regional curency devaluation. Singapore dollar, Thai Bath, eh down din sila.
Hanggang saan tataas yung USD? Depende na yan cguro kung hanggang kelan tatagal si Gloria in the midst of the scandal hounding her presidency and her family.
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June 21st, 2005 06:05 PM #6Originally Posted by creepy
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June 21st, 2005 06:42 PM #8Before the allegations of election fraud and involvement of the First Family in jueteng operations, the peso has been on an appreciating/strengthening trend. For most of 2004, the exchange rate hovered around US$1:PhP56. For the first half of 2005, this was up to around US$1:PhP54-55 on account of rising OFW inflows, increasing export receipts, credit rating upgrades, and improving fiscal situation as a result of the enactment of the e-VAT law and tightened tax administration/collection. However, we cannot ignore that other factors, aside from demand and supply conditions in the foreign exchange market are going to determine the exchange rate. Rightly put by the other posters, non-economic factors such as the political uncertainties are putting pressures on the exchange rate.
The long-term trend may appear to show a depreciating trend but it does not have to stay that way. If we can just reduce our foreign borrowings, increase our exports, attract more foreign direct and portfolio investments, increase our OFW inflows, reduce our dependence on oil imports, and grow our economy faster, the depreciating trend can be reversed. O nangangarap lang ako.
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June 21st, 2005 08:06 PM #9
d na appreciate ang peso, if we filipinos can just take advantage of the low peso and increase our exports then we will be better off. look at china. what if we just peg the peso to the dollar so that people n traders cant speculate on the peso, this may have a positive effect. look at the china rmb n the malaysian ringgit. both are peg to the dollar so the locals won't mind holding peso, as well as investors won't be in a rush to pull out their investments once they realize their profits. just my idea.
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June 26th, 2005 06:18 PM #10With a market determined exchange rate, we cannot rule out an appreciation of the peso in the future. The problem with a depreciating peso is that while our exports become price competitive in world markets, our imports of raw materials and capital equipment become more expensive. Since most of our exports of garments and semi-conductors are import-intensive, we don't benefit much from a peso depreciation. Even if OFW remittances buy more goods in the Philippines because of depreciation, this is matched by rising pricing as a result of higher import prices.
The Malaysia and China experiences show that we can have a stable exchange rate system but at the cost of our international reserves, which the Philippines does not have much. Malaysia and China can easily defend their currencies because they can buy or sell dollars using their huge foreign exchange reserves. We don't have that luxury. You only need to go back to our experience in 1997 during the Asian financial crisis. Because the Philippines could no longer defend the peso (which was under a managed exchanged rate system - in between fixed and market-determined system) brought about by speculation, the Philippines abandoned defense of the currency and allowed the market to determine the level. If we only have huge amounts of foreign exchange, maganda talaga ang fixed exchange rate because it promote certainty in pricing of foreign exchange, among others.
Kwento ng katrabaho ko, meron daw sya officemate dati na Italiano na tinanong daw bakit...
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