Where will the US $ stop?

[Monseratto]

Ever since nag labas yung Jueteng and "Hello Garci?" scandals, the US$ has moved steadily upward. After holding steady at the 54-54.80 PhP/ $1 level for 3-4 months, it is about to break the 56 PhP / $1 level. Todays close is 55.74 PhP/ $1. Do you think it will get past the 56.50 PhP level and beyond? World Oil Prices are also at a record high now, paano na naman to?

[koppee1]

actually, if you start with say....President Marcos...the peso to dollar ration has always been on the rise. Sure, every now and then there will be times when the peso rises in comparison to the dollar, but it's a sure thing. The peso to dollar ratio will eventually go up. In the short run, the graph goes up and down, but in the long run, it's a steady climb. Just recently I remember the news making a big deal of the peso going up to 54 from 55 plus...but now it's back to 55 plus again....I think it's a sure thing that eventually, it will always go up.

[Mushi Mushi]

Can any of you remember the time back in 1995 yata, when the minimum fare sa jeepney was 75-centavos only? I think the peso exchange rate back then was around P24 to $1. :praning:

[creepy]

The US$ is already past P55.9+ today. Dunno if it will close at P56.00...

[jds]

It's mainly brought by political uncertainties and also afected by the regional curency devaluation. Singapore dollar, Thai Bath, eh down din sila.

Hanggang saan tataas yung USD? Depende na yan cguro kung hanggang kelan tatagal si Gloria in the midst of the scandal hounding her presidency and her family.

[Juan Tamad]

The US$ is already past P55.9+ today. Dunno if it will close at P56.00...

$ closes today at 55.64 ... I think this is just the start of the impending collapse of the peso especially if mass protest in the streets has started..

[BlueBimmer]

hey at least it closed lower today than yesterday..hehe

[blueknight1968]

Before the allegations of election fraud and involvement of the First Family in jueteng operations, the peso has been on an appreciating/strengthening trend. For most of 2004, the exchange rate hovered around US$1:PhP56. For the first half of 2005, this was up to around US$1:PhP54-55 on account of rising OFW inflows, increasing export receipts, credit rating upgrades, and improving fiscal situation as a result of the enactment of the e-VAT law and tightened tax administration/collection. However, we cannot ignore that other factors, aside from demand and supply conditions in the foreign exchange market are going to determine the exchange rate. Rightly put by the other posters, non-economic factors such as the political uncertainties are putting pressures on the exchange rate.

The long-term trend may appear to show a depreciating trend but it does not have to stay that way. If we can just reduce our foreign borrowings, increase our exports, attract more foreign direct and portfolio investments, increase our OFW inflows, reduce our dependence on oil imports, and grow our economy faster, the depreciating trend can be reversed. O nangangarap lang ako.

[KCboy]

d na appreciate ang peso, if we filipinos can just take advantage of the low peso and increase our exports then we will be better off. look at china. what if we just peg the peso to the dollar so that people n traders cant speculate on the peso, this may have a positive effect. look at the china rmb n the malaysian ringgit. both are peg to the dollar so the locals won't mind holding peso, as well as investors won't be in a rush to pull out their investments once they realize their profits. just my idea.

[blueknight1968]

With a market determined exchange rate, we cannot rule out an appreciation of the peso in the future. The problem with a depreciating peso is that while our exports become price competitive in world markets, our imports of raw materials and capital equipment become more expensive. Since most of our exports of garments and semi-conductors are import-intensive, we don't benefit much from a peso depreciation. Even if OFW remittances buy more goods in the Philippines because of depreciation, this is matched by rising pricing as a result of higher import prices.

The Malaysia and China experiences show that we can have a stable exchange rate system but at the cost of our international reserves, which the Philippines does not have much. Malaysia and China can easily defend their currencies because they can buy or sell dollars using their huge foreign exchange reserves. We don't have that luxury. You only need to go back to our experience in 1997 during the Asian financial crisis. Because the Philippines could no longer defend the peso (which was under a managed exchanged rate system - in between fixed and market-determined system) brought about by speculation, the Philippines abandoned defense of the currency and allowed the market to determine the level. If we only have huge amounts of foreign exchange, maganda talaga ang fixed exchange rate because it promote certainty in pricing of foreign exchange, among others.

[koppee1]

The long-term trend may appear to show a depreciating trend but it does not have to stay that way. If we can just reduce our foreign borrowings, increase our exports, attract more foreign direct and portfolio investments, increase our OFW inflows, reduce our dependence on oil imports, and grow our economy faster, the depreciating trend can be reversed. O nangangarap lang ako.

Hopefully this does happen. But I think corruption is so rampat in our government that no matter who is the president, nothing will really change. How can you change when everyone else below you is corrupt? I think if Macapagal steps down there isn't really any difference either. The next one is bound to have skeletons inside his or her closet as well. Do we really still think that people run for government because they want to help the country? :p

[BlueBimmer]

Peso-Dollar Exchange Rate As of June 29, 2005 4:24 PM
Official Rate from the Philippine Dealing System
Previous Close
55.690

PDS Close
P56.050 = $1.00

yari na ang piso...sana makabawi bukas

[Monseratto]

Peso tumbles to 56 to the dollar

Posted: 4:58 PM | Jun. 29, 2005

Erik de la Cruz
XFN-Asia


THE PESO breached the psychological barrier of 56 to the US dollar as moves to oust President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, accused of cheating in last year's presidential election, gain more ground, dealers said.

They said the dollar's general strength also weighed on the peso, but they saw the central bank selling dollars in the spot market to prevent a freefall of the Philippine currency.



The peso closed at 56.05 to the dollar, slightly off the day's low of 56.06, on volume of 469.88 million usd.

It was the peso's weakest finish since January 11, when it settled at 56. 07. It closed at 55.69 Tuesday.

Dealers said demand for dollars was stronger in the afternoon session after the widow of film actor Fernando Poe, whom Arroyo defeated in last year's election, joined the calls for the president to quit.

Arroyo is also facing an impeachment complaint filed in the House of Representatives.

Arroyo publicly apologized on Monday for a controversial telephone call she made to an election official during the vote-counting last year, prompting her opponents to step up their calls for her resignation.

She has repeatedly denied she cheated in the election and has indicated that she will remain in office.

"There was a knee-jerk reaction after Susan Roces refused to accept Arroyo's apology. We will likely see a test of the peso's all-time low [of 56.45] in the coming days," a dealer at a commercial bank here said.

Earlier today, central bank deputy governor Amando Tetangco said the peso's continued weakness against the dollar was due to a confluence of factors, among which is the across-the-board strength of the US unit and the usual month-end dollar requirements of importers.

"Some market players are also citing the political noise," Tetangco told reporters on the sidelines of a businessmen's conference.

[bilog]

fly to US and work there...

para malaki ang value ng pera pagbalik sa pilipinas.

[Monseratto]

I hope this won't be another excuse for TMP to raise prices of their Thai-imported Fortuners. Madaming nagwawala na dito sa ibang forums.

[badkuk]

bilog:ly to US and work there...
para malaki ang value ng pera pagbalik sa pilipinas.

chain reaction na naman...ofws will probably hold off sending $$$'s home hoping to get a more favorable exchange rate, resulting in a shortage, resulting to higher $ rate.

[BoEinG_747]

THE peso yesterday crossed the psychologically important threshold of P56 per dollar as the local currency market absorbed the impact of President Arroyo's owning up to the voice on the now-famous "Hello, Garci" tapes and Susan Roces' call for her to resign yesterday.

The peso touched a fresh five-month record low of 56.06 before closing the day's trade at 56.05 do the dollar.

Arroyo yesterday said First Gentleman Jose Miguel Arroyo, who is accused by opposition lawmakers of receiving bribes from gambling syndicates, will leave the country, but analysts said the move would not ease pressure on the President.

Roces, widow of presidential candidate Fernando Poe Jr, who died in December last year, said in a press conference she could not accept Arroyo's apology and demanded her immediate resignation.

The peso began to tumble steadily this month after the revelation of the controversial taped phone conversations between the President and an Elections official whom she did not identify during her announcement Monday night but is widely believed to be Elections Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano.

On June 3, before Press Secretary Ignacio Bunye released what he described to be the real tape and the "fake" copy, the peso stood at 54.49 per dollar.

On June 6, when Bunye held his press conference to reveal the tapes, it slid to 54.58 per dollar. The day after his revelation, it slightly went up to 54.58.

The peso crossed the 55 per dollar barrier on June 10, closing the day's trade at 55.20 per dollar.

It see-sawed within the P55 per dollar range until yesterday's trade at the Philippine Dealing System, the foreign exchange trading pit where commercial banks buy and sell dollars among themselves.

[BlueBimmer]

Peso-Dollar Exchange Rate As of July 27, 2005 4:45 PM
Official Rate from the Philippine Dealing System
PDS Close Previous Close
P56.175 = $1.00 56.000

Open 56.100
High 56.200
Low 56.100
Close 56.175


we r doomed!

[mrpink]

.. well look at it this way .. dadami na project na naman ng mga outsourcing gigs dahil magiging cheaper labor ang pinas ..

[Monseratto]

Our currency devaluation should have been taken advantage of. However because of flip-flop goverment policies, poor infrastructure, a interventionist judiciary and a percieved militant labor force, most investors look elsewhere.