New Storm "Mina" a Threat to Metro Manila

[Monseratto]

Parang Typhoon Milenyo Reloaded...Nalaman ng PAGASA na direct hit ang Metro Manila with only few hours to spare. This one seems to have the same path as Milenyo. I hope it won't bring havoc to the power grid...

[squatt3r]

if you look at the size of the typhoon (www.typhoon2000.com) you'll see why they are calling it super typhoon.

[falken]

Let's just hope it weakens a bit, in the meantime, it's best to prepare for the worst.

[chua_riwap]

Sana humina na pag landfall ni Mina. Takot tuloy ako. Papa-bless pa ako ng bahay..........

[empy]

i hate these storms/typhoons/hurricanes. i pray that none of them hit you this year.

[Hanren]

Update lang po from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam:

Source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam
URL:https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp2407prog.txt

WDPN32 PGTW 211500MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 06//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (MITAG) HAS INTENSIFIED 15 KNOTSOVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. SEVERALMICROWAVE IMAGES DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONCENTER, ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION REMAINED BANDING IN NATURE ANDWEIGHTED TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN STORM QUADRANTS. B. TS 24W REMAINS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF AN EAST/WEST-ORIENTEDSTEERING RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 21N (FROM THE LUZON STRAIT EASTWARD TOTHE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS). CURRENT SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITYESTIMATES ARE CENTERED AT 55 KT, AND A 211002Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTSAN EMERGING EYE FEATURE AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO FULLY WRAP AROUND THESTORM CENTER. A SYNOPTIC-SCALE (200 MB) ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED ABOUT400 NM TO THE EAST, AND WHILE PROVIDING FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW OVERMOST OF TS 24W, THE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME MASS INFLOWON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT/NEAR 29C ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST TRACK CONSIDERABLY SLOWED AND SHIFTED POLEWARD SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING. RATHER THAN CONTINUING WESTWARDACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON, IT IS LIKELY THE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE WESTERNEXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL (STEERING) RIDGE AND MAKE A MARKED POLEWARD TURN NEAR LUZON. B. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN EXTENTOF THE STEERING RIDGE AND BEGINS TO TRACK POLEWARD BY TAU 72. ALTHOUGHTS 24W HAS NOT (YET) DEVELOPED A CENTRAL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION, THESYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THEINTENSITY FORECAST MAY BE CONSERVATIVE IF STORM OUTFLOW FULLY MERGESWITH THE (200 MB) SYNOPTIC-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCEIS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS, BUT DIVERGES BY THE 72-HOURFORECAST POINT. C. MOST MODELS DEPICT A SLOW, POLEWARD TURN BEYOND 72 HOURS, AS TS 24WTRANSITIONS TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE JUST EAST OFLUZON. TWO MODELS (NOGAPS AND GFDN) MAINTAIN A STRONGER RIDGE AXISPOLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM AND TRACK THE STORM OVER THE PHILIPPINES. HOWEVER,MOST 500 MB FIELDS INDICATE A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA AND MUCHWEAKER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGEFORMING NEAR TAIWAN. THIS FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THEAVAILABLE MODELS, BUT KEPT A BIT SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS AS LESS WEIGHTINGIS PLACED ON THE WESTWARD (AND FASTER) OUTLIERS.FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//NNNN

[Asus700]

base on recent map, if it continues west, its gonna hit metro manila.

its gonna be travelling a bit north though so it may hit central luzon.

[FrankDrebin]

Kailan ang ETA?

[shadow]

heard nathaniel cruz of pag-asa this morning, and hinde daw tatamaan ang metro manila, baka daw umakayat ng north so tatamaan nanaman ang northern luzon i.e aurora, isabela, etc. basta yun binagyo din last early november....then central luzon pa yata...

[Hanren]

Kailan ang ETA?

Saturday or Sunday