New Storm "Mina" a Threat to Metro Manila

[Hanren]

Storm "Mina" is expected to pass by or near Bico Region and possibly near MM by the weekend or early next week. Malayo pa but its good to be prepared ahead of time..pero sana wag na tumuloy

[1D4LV]

based on the map mahahagip nga.

but during these times, the NW monsoon blows the typhoon downwards to the visayas area like what the storm Lando did.

but then again, dami ang napinsala ng storm lando sa visayas area.

i just hope na malusaw ng cold temperatures.

[Hanren]

Update lang po. My apologies for all the technical jargon...

Source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center
URL:https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp2407prog.txt

WDPN32 PGTW 210300 (11 am Phil Time)
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (MITAG) HAS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM
THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES, AS SEEN IN A 210025Z TMI MICRO-
WAVE IMAGE. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TRACK MORE
WESTWARD AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY OVER JAPAN HAS TRAN-
SITED EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF TS
24W.
B. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH REMAINS CENTERED ABOUT 21N FROM THE LUZON
STRAIT EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TS 24W HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. FAVORABLE POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 (PGTW AND
KNES) KNOTS. A 210025Z TMI PASS DEPICTS A RATHER SYMMETRIC CIR-
CULATION MEASURING APPROXIMATELY 350 NM ACROSS, AND THE PRIMARY MASS
OF DEEP CONVECTION WEIGHTED TOWARD THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
B. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT, RIDGING EXTENDING EAST-
WARD FROM INDOCHINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TAU 48. THIS
STEERING ORIENTATION WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A PREDOMINANTLY WESTWARD
TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN LUZON. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS
IT REMAINS OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UNDERGOES FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER FAVORABLE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (EASTERLY) DUE TO
SYNOPTIC-SCALE (200 MB) RIDGING TO THE EAST OF TD 24W MAY LIMIT THE
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION (CONVECTION MAY BE DISPLACED WESTWARD FROM
THE LLCC). THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48. THE NOGAPS MODEL SOLUTION CARRIES THE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND WITH TCLAPS AND ECMWF REPRESENT THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION, WITH THE ECMWF TRACKER BEING THE NORTHERN MOST OF THIS
SOUTHERLY GROUPING. GFS, EGRR AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS
REPRESENT THE NORTHERN GROUPING AND REFLECT A RECURVATURE SCENARIO.
THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO IS CAUSED BY THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION, TRACKING THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48, WITH A SLOW AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK INTO CENTRAL LUZON NEAR
TAU 72. BY TAU 120 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TRACKED BACK INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WEST OF MANILA. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72 THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTIONS, WITH SOME RE-
INTENSIFICATION ANTICIPATED ONCE THE CIRCULATION REENTERS THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 96.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN

[GroundEffex]

Based from what i saw sa map na dadaanan ng bagyo,medyo malayo ang bagyo. The worst case scenario na nakikita ko is rains lang wala ng iba not even a wind. No cause for alarm..

[JiggeR671]

muka ngang tatama pero parang pataas yung bagyo
pero mas maganda kung prepared tyo..just in case..

link http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamlo...amircolor.html

[pup2]

I don't know if you guys have noticed this. Madalang na ang bagyo ay umaakyat from SLuzon to NLuzon through the Bicol region. And it only ever happens pag 'off-season' like November to January. Pero when it does, it's usually a killer -- wind or no wind. :EEK!:I think this is because if a storm hits the Sierra Madre, it basically fizzles out. (Kaya usually relax lang ako pag July-October eh) Pero if it tracks upward from Bicol, halos walang nakabara.Kaya sana lumihis na lang northward rather than hit the Visayas or Bicol or better yet, huwag na lang tumama at all.

[CVT]

Wala naman sanang mapinsala pang iba, itong bagyo na ito....

Kawawa naman ang mga kababayan natin..... Magpapasko pa naman....

Usually,- hindi na NW ang tracking ng bagyo at this time of the year, dahil tinutulak na siya ng high pressure area up north.... So, relatively towards the West na ang direction.

4505:vader:

[chua_riwap]

Sa TV Patrol, "super typhoon" na ang tawag nila kay Mina. 85 kph pa lang yung lakas niya, at tropical storm pa lang ang category ng PAG-ASA. Sabi pa ng Pag-Asa "BAKA" maging super typhoon ito kung mag-gain pa ng strength. Pero itong Ch. 2, inunahan na sila.

Parang overkill naman ata. Saka na nila tawaging super typhoon ito kung 200kph or above na ito.

[shadow]

I think pinaghahanda lang tayo ng pag-asa kasi ang movement niya is papunta ng west kaya sapul ang bicol pero "maaaring" umangat ng konti at mapunta nga sa manila at "maari" rin bumaba at sapul naman some visayan province...

I think pag-asa was just playing safe at least lumihis man ng pataas or sa baba eh nasabi nila...shotgun approach kung baga...hehehhe

:rain::weathermanf3:

[buriroy]

Its usually during these last months of the year that I get
nervous about storms kasi puro westerly track na sila.

The hight pressure up north keeps the typhoons from spinning
upwards so konti na lang ang itinataas nila.

So kung pumasok sa Bicol region, pag konting pataas ng
route tiyak haging or direct hit ang Metro Manila.

So guys lets all start praying that the storm doesn't
intensify or kung lumakas man sana sa bundok at gubat
na lang manalasa.

Dear God, please spare Metro Manila and other populated
areas from typhoon Mina. Amen.