World economy talk

[uls]

uls:

the dollar selloff was triggered by concerns over the US jobs report tonight

last night there was massive liquidation of long USD positions coz investors have grown skeptical the US economy is strong enough for the Fed to reduce stimulus

tonight's jobs report will confirm how strong the US economy really is

estimate +165K jobs

a bad number means the Fed can't reduce stimulus which is bad for the dollar

a good number (+175K up) will reverse those long dollar liquidations

hey uls! (hehe)

+175K jobs!

TABLE-U.S. May nonfarm payrolls rise by 175,000 | Reuters

TABLE-U.S. May nonfarm payrolls rise by 175,000

[uls]

gold falls



and silver

[Monseratto]

Tuloy ang QE3...???

Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, said the Federal Reserve is unlikely to reduce its asset purchases after the unemployment rate climbed from a four-year low in May.

“Today’s report doesn’t say anything about tapering at all,” Pacific Investment Management Co.’s founder Gross said in a radio interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene.

Payrolls rose 175,000 last month after a revised 149,000 increase in April that was smaller than first estimated, Labor Department figures showed in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 163,000 gain. The unemployment rate rose to 7.6 percent from 7.5 percent.

Global bonds had their worst month in nine years in May, led by Treasuries, as investors sold debt in anticipation central banks will eventually scale back their unprecedented asset purchases. The selloff left Gross’s Pimco Total Return Fund (PTTRX), the world’s biggest mutual fund with $293 billion in assets and one of the best performing, trailing 89 percent of peers in the past month as it declined 2.1 percent.

[uls]

Uls tingin mo ba pababa pa gold?

Magkano tingin mo rock bottom nito bago tumaas ulit?

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uls:

$1000?

dunno

the price of gold will keep falling as long as the market thinks the Fed will stop all that money printing

the Fed currently prints $85B a month to buy USG debt and mortgage bonds

that devalues the US dollar so investors used gold as a hedge

if the Fed reduces asset purchases the US dollar will strengthen and there will be less need for hedging

there's an ongoing bet (long USD) the Fed will reduce asset purchases soon coz the US economy is improving

the bet is so popular right now everybody and their grandmother are in it

but what if the jobs report on friday isnt good? the Fed can't reduce asset purchases. those long USD positions will be liquidated and everybody will buy gold

hard to predict dude

but it's good and precious metals are getting dumped

[uls]

Tuloy ang QE3...???

the jobs number is good but not spectacular

a spectacular number would make the Fed consider pulling back stimulus soon

but so far market reaction is as expected

the USD is up

gold is down

[c_cube]

the jobs number is good but not spectacular

a spectacular number would make the Fed consider pulling back stimulus soon

but so far market reaction is as expected

the USD is up

gold is down

Recovering na ba us economy? Pero taon pa bago sila totally maka recover?

Baba pa gold.. BABA!

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[uls]

Recovering na ba us economy? Pero taon pa bago sila totally maka recover?

Baba pa gold.. BABA!

Sent from my GT-P1000 using Tapatalk 2

yes it is

Fed?s Beige Book Shows ?Modest to Moderate? Growth in U.S. - Bloomberg

The economy expanded at a “modest to moderate” pace in 11 of 12 Federal Reserve districts, with broad-based gains ranging from business services to construction and manufacturing, the central bank said today.

[uls]

this is making dollars flow back to the US

[uls]

this morning Asia reacts to last friday's US jobs report

[uls]

not too hot not too cold

uls:

the jobs number is good but not spectacular

a spectacular number would make the Fed consider pulling back stimulus soon

GLOBAL MARKETS-Nikkei rises after solid US jobs, Asia shares steady | Reuters

TOKYO, June 10 (Reuters) - Japanese shares rebounded strongly on Monday, tracking a rally in global equities following U.S. jobs data that was solid but not strong enough to cause worry about near-term tapering of the Federal Reserve's massive stimulus.

Markets regained some stability after experiencing high volatility the past couple of weeks. They had been swung around by concerns the Fed will weaken stimulus commitment that's been instrumental in aiding risk appetites, and then by speculation Friday's jobs data would disappoint and raise worries about the U.S. economy.

[uls]

China trade data underscores growth worries | Reuters

(Reuters) - China's exports posted their lowest growth rate in almost a year in May while imports unexpectedly fell, government data showed on Saturday, underlining concerns about slowing growth in the world's second largest economy.

AUD futures

[uls]

if low yields in the US forced capital to seek higher yield in emerging markets what happens when US yields begin to rise?

[uls]

[vinj]

It is official... I am stooopid for not following my gut feel to load up a bit on the greenback a few weeks ago.

[uls]

i didnt buy either

but as a consolation i didnt sell when everyone sold at 40 thinking USDPHP would fall to the 30s

my thinking was the BSP will hold the line at 40... which it did

[vinj]

i didnt buy either

but as a consolation i didnt sell when everyone sold at 40 thinking USDPHP would fall to the 30s

my thinking was the BSP will hold the line at 40... which it did

For many years, analysts and FIs always said that it would hit the 30s but never did. BSP will work to keep things in check. Kinda reminds you of that guy who said fuel prices would "soften" right?

[uls]

ya one thing people forget is that when prices rise too high or fall too low powerful interests can intervene

Brent shouldnt be at $100 (coz of weak global demand and no supply problem) but powerful interests are protecting that level

[uls]

USDJPY down after BOJ statement

Nikkei down after lunch reopen

JGB yields up

[uls]

USDJPY falls below 97


why do i keep posting USDJPY?

coz it drives everything else

this says the US will open lower tonight

[uls]

volatile session last night