World economy talk

[Monseratto]

Money going the wrong way...

Immigrants in US are asking for money from home

FAIRVIEW, N.J. - For five years, immigrant day laborer Leo Chamale wired money twice a month from New Jersey to his family in Guatemala. Recently, he stepped up to the money transfer window for a different purpose - to ask that his family send some of his savings back to him.

With the US economy in a ditch, money transfer agencies have been reporting a decline in the wages immigrants are sending back to their home countries. Now, it appears some immigrants are going a step further - asking their relatives to wire them money back.

It is not clear how much money is being sent back to the US or how widespread the phenomenon is. Large money transfer agencies, such as Western Union, said they do not disclose how much money is sent or received by their field offices. Banks in foreign countries often track only money sent into the country by their citizens living abroad.

But clearly, these "reverse remittances" - as the money wired back to the US is called - are extremely small when compared to the money immigrants send home.

[tidus1203]

The UK is deep $**T as we have been discussing in this thread previously. Massive spending, massive printing of money, with no revenue to back it up. US Jr. is in big trouble, maybe we should rename this thread as getting out of the Pound Sterling as well...

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- The state of the U.K. economy fills British financial historian Niall Ferguson with foreboding. “The probability of a real sterling crisis is around one in three, and the probability of major tax hikes and cuts in public spending is roughly one in one,” the Harvard University professor says.
Ferguson’s concern stems from the deterioration in the U.K.’s public finances, which prompted Standard & Poor’s to warn on May 21 that the country could lose its AAA debt rating. The firm estimated the cost of propping up Britain’s banks at 100 billion pounds ($166 billion) to 145 billion pounds and said government debts could double to almost 100 percent of gross domestic product by 2013.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aptnrMueIerQ

[tidus1203]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31187744

A very nice coffee book table like account by CNBC on how the housing bubble started.

[uls]

in the following video, a guest on Bloomberg talks about program trading (high frequency trading done by robots) and how program trading is moving the equities market

go directly to 3 mins. 50 secs.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0U1vMUa2sc"]YouTube - New Project[/ame]

"principally related program trades is a way to get the market to go in your direction"

the market is being manipulated by high frequency program trading

Goldman Sachs is the most active principal program trader in the market

Goldman creates momentum

momentum chasers all follow Goldman

if you are a retail investor, get out of this market

it is rigged

Quoting the Bloomberg guest:

"I have a feeling one day the door is gonna close, everyone is going to be running for the exits, there is going to be a major move in the market and everyone is going to wonder "what happened?"...

There is a problem structurally in the equity markets that nobody wants to talk about. There is intervention, there is manipulation going on. No one has exact proof of what is going on but it's out there, and the real liquidity has been gone for a while...

the liquidity is not coming back."

[tidus1203]

Looks like the bulls just hit a wall!

Employers cut a larger-than-expected 467,000 jobs in June, driving the unemployment rate up to a 26-year high of 9.5 percent, suggesting that the economy's road to recovery will be bumpy.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/467K-j...&asset=&ccode=

[uls]

and everybody will be selling ahead of the July 4 weekend

[pup2]

Yung office ng pinsan ko sa NY nag 1 week holiday daw ... tuwang tuwa naman yung pinsan ko at makaka pasyal daw siya. Sana naman pagbalik niya bukas pa din sila.

[tidus1203]

Holiday? With or without pay? Kung without pay loko ponsan mo baka magsasara na nga!

[uls]

i posted something about high frequency trading

Looks like someone tried to steal Goldman's high frequency trading code

A Goldman Trading Scandal?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31750907

Did someone try to steal Goldman Sachs' secret sauce?

While most in the United States were celebrating the Fourth of July holiday, a Russian immigrant living in New Jersey was being held on federal charges of stealing secret computer trading codes from a major New York-based financial institution. Authorities did not identify the firm, but sources say that institution is none other than Goldman Sachs.

The charges, if proven, are significant because the codes that the accused, Sergey Aleynikov, tried to steal are the secret sauce to Goldman's automated stock and commodities trading business. Federal authorities contend the computer codes and related-trading files that Aleynikov uploaded to a German-based website help this major financial institution generate millions of dollars in profits each year.

The platform is one of the things that gives Goldman an advantage over the competition when it comes to the rapid-fire trading of stocks and commodities. Federal authorities say the platform quickly processes rapid developments in the markets and using secret mathematical formulas, allows the firm to make highly-profitable automated trades.

[tidus1203]

Sarap talaga yan parang robot trading. Tulog ka pero you're still making money cause the robot trades for you...

[uls]

hanapin natin yung program

the thief uploaded it

if we find it and download it, we can trade like Goldman

hehe

[tidus1203]

Unfortunately I don't have the money like Goldman does. Mamaya sasabihin ng robot buy 1M contracts of NY Light Sweet Crude pero wala ka naman money to cover it

[uls]

Tidus, baket ang lakas ng JPY tonight?

ano meron?

everything is falling against the USD except the JPY

oil is $63.99 as i type

[tidus1203]

Oil trading at $71.50, the highest ever in 2009...

But (you can quote me here) I think oil is starting to get overbought. When it hits $75 start selling some (maybe half of what you own or even 75% of it) and take profits. It will most likely go down and then we can buy it back again...

Posted on June 10, 2009 on page 148 of this thread.

Looks like the correction is in full swing, see you at $57 because that is where I will buy it back again. For the record I was able to get our at $70.75 didn't reach $75 unfortunately...

[uls]

dailyfx:

The Japanese Yen may continue to strengthen against its major counterparts over the following week as market participants curb their appetite for higher risk/reward investments, and the low-yielding currency should benefit from safe-haven flows as investors weigh the outlook for a global recovery.

hehe

recovery my a$#

[uls]

California prints its own currency



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6477d3a2-6...44feabdc0.html

A stalemate over how to close a $24bn (£14.7bn) budget gap has left California short of cash. The state last week issued $53m of registered warrants, or old-fashioned IOUs. If the budget impasse persists, it could issue more than $3bn IOUs by the end of July for payments such as tax refunds, welfare and vendor bills.

the IOUs are tradeable

The IOUs are due on or before October 2 and pay an annual rate of 3.75 per cent. They are transferable, which means anyone can buy or sell them.

good as cash

Government officials have pledged that the IOUs are "rock solid" and Bank of America and Wells Fargo have agreed to accept them as deposits.

[tidus1203]

Well its still not cash per se. You know you can't go to the grocery and pay in Californian IOU's now can you? But yeah its pretty simply PRINTING MONEY. California HAS NO MONEY! NONE!! And yet they just created money out of a promise, and likely without the federal gov't bailing them out print more IOU's to pay for the existing IOU's and thus create the money printing spiral...

Sayang JPY ah! Di ko napansin, lately nakatutok ako sa commodities and stocks eh nakalimutan ko na currency... Hay too many things to monitor with very few eyes

[uls]

money is debt, debt is money

---

ya so many things to follow

kulang na nga ako sa tulog

[uls]

More on Goldman's trading code

Goldman Trading-Code Investment Put at Risk by Theft
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=ajIMch.ErnD4

July 6 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. may lose its investment in a proprietary trading code and millions of dollars from increased competition if software allegedly stolen by an ex-employee gets into the wrong hands, a prosecutor said.

If it falls into the wrong hands... (like mine hehehe joke lang )

“The bank has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways,” Facciponti said, according to a recording of the hearing made public today. “The copy in Germany is still out there, and we at this time do not know who else has access to it.”

The prosecutor added, “Once it is out there, anybody will be able to use this, and their market share will be adversely affected.”

this is how Goldman rules the market

The proprietary code lets the firm do “sophisticated, high-speed and high-volume trades on various stock and commodities markets,” prosecutors said in court papers. The trades generate “many millions of dollars” each year.

it is Goldman's secret weapon

“Someone stealing that code is basically stealing the way that Goldman Sachs makes money in the equity marketplace,” said Larry Tabb, founder of TABB Group, a financial-market research and advisory firm. “The more sophisticated market makers -- and Goldman is one of them -- spend significant amounts of money developing software that’s extremely fast and can analyze different execution strategies so they can be the first one to make a decision.”

using the code, someone can either trade like Goldman, or frontrun Goldman

Someone could use the code “to implement the same strategies and maybe on certain stocks they can be faster and, in effect, take away money that would normally be Goldman’s,” Tabb said today in a phone interview. “The second thing that they can do is actually analyze the code so that they know what Goldman’s going to do before Goldman does it and kind of reverse engineer Goldman’s strategies and make money basically at the expense of Goldman.”

[Monseratto]

Oil, Gas Market Speculation May Face Restrictions

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. regulators say they may clamp down on oil and gas price speculators by limiting the holdings of energy futures traders, including index and exchange-traded funds.

The hearings come amid increased scrutiny of the impact of speculators on oil prices. Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, and Representative Bart Stupak, a Michigan Democrat, blame speculators for last year’s surge in crude-oil prices to a record $147.27 a barrel and called for CFTC action to avert a repeat. Oil has climbed 41 percent this year in New York trading, while demand has dropped and inventories climbed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aIEgmYChpWg8