World economy talk

[tidus1203]

Because Tsikot stroked, nag double post tuloy...

[uls]

Wasn't it 2 days ago that Russian finance dude (forgot his name) said that Russia still trusts the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency. Apparently his boss Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has other things in mind.



http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Russia...&asset=&ccode=

This is on the BRIC summit. The summit of Brazil, Russia, India and China the 4 emerging economies of the world. China is the wild card there since they are the biggest support of the US Dollar, lose that support it will crumble. Russia is the 5th ata and Brazil is 6th.

hehe

ganyan talaga... it's politics

pag kaharap ang US (sa G8 finance ministers meeting in Italy), they say there's no replacement for the USD

pag hindi kaharap ang US (sa BRIC meeting), they say the USD has to be replaced

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early this evening, humina uli ang USD

oil back above $72

[tidus1203]

Yeah as I told you all these are just noises in the market and should be ignored. The bigger trend is, COMMODITIES UP. USD DOWN. UST DOWN. STOCKS UP. Follow the big trend and not the daily news that creates daily disturbances.

[uls]

^^

yep it's just one big trade... in and out of asset classes

either safe haven assets or risk assets

safe haven assets = USD, JPY, Treasuries

risk assets = equities, commodities, EUR, GBP, emerging market, commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD, ZAR)

--

looks like things will get volatile in Q3

VIX is now above 32

last week, someone bet $850,000 that the VIX will hit 45 in July

http://pragcap.com/heavy-call-buying...s-sparks-fears

However, the noise coming out of the Chicago Board Options Exchange today is over a July call spread using VIX options that relies on a market swan dive over the coming 41 days before it would earn profits. One trader spent an $850,000 premium on buying 20,000 July calls at the 45 strike while selling the same amount of 55 strike calls, thus lowering the overall premium to 42.5 cents. The VIX hasn’t traded above 40 since April 21 and we’re wondering what this guy knows that no one else does.

this week, there are people betting VIX will hit 50 in August

Reuters

The CBOE Volatility Index rose 5 percent to 32.34 late in the session, and the August VIX upside 50 calls are the busiest index contract as a number of players appeared to be looking for a substantial rise in volatility this summer. The VIX advanced as U.S. stocks accelerated their decline on mixed economic data that spurred worries the economic recovery may be anemic. The VIX, a 30-day risk forecast priced off Standard & Poor's 500 index options, often moves inversely to the S&P benchmark. One player bought 25,000 August 50 calls for 75 cents against a position in futures at 31.00, said WhatsTrading.com strategist Frederic Ruffy. Two other blocks of 10,000 and 8,800 were also purchased this morning for 75 cents. In his daily commentary, Stifel Nicolaus option strategist Elliot Spar noted a large buyer in the VIX 50 calls. The spot VIX took out 31.80, viewed as resistance. A two-day close above that level would be convincing about a breakout in the VIX and implies a lower S&P 500, he said.

[uls]

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

[uls]

Obama swats fly with ninja speed



[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ca9e3sePyUw"]YouTube - Obama And The Fly[/ame]

(di masyado off topic kasi it's a CNBC interview hehe)

[tidus1203]

The influence of emerging markets in the world economy will continue to expand and ultimately contribute to ending the dollar's reign as global reserve currency, economist Nouriel Roubini said on Tuesday.

"Declines of major reserve currencies do not occur overnight. It's a slow process that takes decades," he said, noting the gradual shift in the 20th century from sterling to the dollar. "This century could be the Asian or Chinese century, but that will occur over time."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31390459

Regarding the boldface:
Hehehe. Parang sinabi ko ata yun last year ah when people (emanzano and the gang) were debating me for insisting that the US Dollar in the long run will lose its reserve status.

Just in case you don't know who Nouriel Roubini is, he is a Turkish-American economist. He is one of Time magazine's 100 most influential people.

[uls]

must read

believe me

trust me

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/7301374/Gundlach-June-15

[uls]

+++++++++++++++++++++

[uls]

+++++++++++++

[uls]

Exxon Chief Says Oil’s Advance Reflects Weak Dollar
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aKA2So1S4DhU

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- Rex Tillerson, chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corp., said the recent rise in oil prices reflects mainly the weak dollar and is not supported by market fundamentals.

ummm...

yep

i've been telling people that

it's actually getting a bit old

[uls]

oil is below $70 as i type

EIA reports US crude stockpiles decrease but gasoline stockpiles increase

fundamentals always catch up

[uls]

oil falls below $68

$67.34 as i type

Dow down 140

VIX up

[uls]

volatility index



volatility is baaack

[uls]

oil falls below $67

$66.85 as i type

S&P 500 899

reality catches up

[tidus1203]

Oil will now experience a correction because it has gone up a lot in a short period of time as I have stated before kasi overbought na. My only regret is it didn't hit $75 oh well...

[leonleon]

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...9&asset=&ccode

"..inflation will start picking up in a year and a half, and will
go up for the next 30 years..."

So is this the dreaded hyperinflation everyone's saying will come upon us sooner than later? Ano ang magagawa o dapat gawin ngayon ng mga simpleng tao tulad ko?

[ghosthunter]

Moderator's Note: Thread fixed... have fun guys.

[tidus1203]

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/267557/30-Years-of-Inflation-Coming-But-%22Deflation-Scare%22-Not-Over-Yet-Cycle-Maven-Says?tickers=GDX,XME,TIP,TBT,NEM,^DJI,^GSPC?sec=to pStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode

"..inflation will start picking up in a year and a half, and will
go up for the next 30 years..."

So is this the dreaded hyperinflation everyone's saying will come upon us sooner than later? Ano ang magagawa o dapat gawin ngayon ng mga simpleng tao tulad ko?

OWN A FARM!!! If you can't buy commodities or own gold, then own a farm that is the best advice I can give you. Dapat bawasan na hawak ng paper assets pero syempre dahan dahan hindi biglaan...

[uls]

Thanks GH



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leonleon

So is this the dreaded hyperinflation everyone's saying will come upon us sooner than later? Ano ang magagawa o dapat gawin ngayon ng mga simpleng tao tulad ko?

first, a chart:



what is excess reserves?

wiki:

In banking, excess reserves are bank reserves in excess of the reserve requirement set by a central bank. They are reserves of cash more than the required amounts. Holding excess reserves is generally considered costly and uneconomical as no interest is earned on the excess amount. Therefore, many banks minimize their excess reserve amounts by putting them to more productive use.

the banks are hoarding cash

they arent putting money to work

they're not lending much

there's very little money multiplier

that's why inflation is quite low... for now

when those excess reserves are finally put to work, that's when inflation will take off like a rocket

what do you do?

you have to own hard assets

land, commodities