i've been thinking lately on where to invest long term (besides stocks market). as i do not have much business acumen like some guys here (nakakainggit naman kayo!) and also do not have the time to look after the business full time (OFW) i prefer something that i (used to) know and like to do. i have been looking for some farm land for tree farming, of either gmelina (paper tree) or mahogany. the gemelina will be for medium term income (5-7 years) while the mahogany for retirement (15+ years). as per the research i've done so far, gmelina can be sold for 1.5-2k per tree after 5 years, and the mahogany around 10k-15k per tree after 15 years (price varies on location, lower where there is illegal logging).

i'm doing my computations on the over pessimistic side, lower end less 20%, so that will be 1.2k/tree for gmelina and 8k/tree for mahogany. sobrang pessimistic ba? at the spacing of 1.5 meters for gmelina and 2.5 meters for mahogany, and basing on a square planting pattern (less efficient) as against a hexagonal pattern (more efficient) to compensate for tree loss due to thinning/stunted growth/desease/typhoons (again very pessimistic at only 50+% survival rate), that's 4,400 trees/heactare for gmelina and 1600 trees/hectare for mahogany. (note: tree density increases by a factor of almost 2 using a hexagonal pattern). yield for gmelina after 5-7 years (again, pessimistic so 7 years) = 5.28M/hectare. for mahogany it's 12.8M/hectare after 15 years. i intend to plant 5 hectares to gmelina and 10 hectares to mahogany.

price per hectare is 225-250k at the location i'm targetting (in central luzon, no illegal logging, no NPA). i will start from seeds (not seedlings, i do have the time to plant seeds) so that means minimal expense. i will also be using chicken manure for fertilizer, which i had been told is necessary if the trees are planted on low grade soil (but i will be buying land good enough for vegetables). my estimate is 300k/hectare innitial investment (land, seeds, labor) for both gmelina and mahogany plus additional 20k/year/hectare. for 7 years, total investment on the 5 hectare plot planted to gmelina will be 2.2M, yield estimate is 26M. for the 10 hectare planted to mahogany, 15 years total investment will be 6M, and yield estimate is 128M.

would you consider this a good venture? is anyone here into tree farming? please try very hard to discourage me