Depends. If you care for an AT with regular fluid changes, it can last 100-150k kilometers, no sweat. Slipping? Replace the clutch packs... poor response? Upgrade the valve body. No sweat.
With a Honda CVT, you can't do that. You have to replace the entire assembly. Which is kind of stupid. Honda should have made the clutch packs a separate item designed for easy disassembly and replacement.
Mitsubishi CVTs and some others still use torque converters... some are purely mechanical. That way, the slippage is in some part that can be replaced.
A Dual Clutch, aside from electronic niggles as it gets older (and all electronics get niggles, even on MT cars) is durable. Less slipping or friction compared to everything else. There are the odd cases of failure, though, and if it happens out of warranty... ouch.
On a modern manual? Tons of stuff can go wrong. Poor shifting habits can wear down shifter bushings, synchros (synchros are cheap to buy, but labor and machine shop work to take apart the transmission? Freaking expensive), gears can be chipped (same problem), clutch assemblies and hydraulic components wear down with regularity. And flywheels, too. If you drive in traffic a lot, your flywheel may need to be resurfaced around 100,000 kms. If you own a car with a dual-mass flywheel (common on many new gasoline and diesel cars), you can't resurface it at all, and it needs to be replaced completely when the springs inside wear out. This is typically at 100,000+++ kilometers and can cost over 30-70k pesos for the flywheel alone. It's insane. Good thing single-mass flywheel replacements are available for some cars, but they're not common here, yet.
If we're going by maintenance expense... **** it all... buy whatever you want and baby the heck out of it.![]()





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