By Tony Lopez
Two recent speeches struck me. The first was delivered by management guru Washington SyCip before the Management Association of the Philippines last January 23. The second was made by Chief Justice Reynato S. Puno before the Philippine Constitution (Philconsa) on February 8, Constitution Day.
SyCip raised troubling questions. Can a western democracy solve the economic problems of a poor nation with a per capita income of about $1,500? Can the country be unified?
Puno, on the other hand, reminded his Philconsa audience of mostly jurists and lawyers that the Filipinos have enjoyed 100 years of suffrage from the first general elections of 1907 for the first Philippine assembly. He noted that “the elite has ruled our elections, even if on paper the masses are sovereign.”
The Chief Justice added: “The local elites successfully organized their political campaigns around extended family and patron-client networks. They invented the political machines to churn out votes. These well-oiled machines are run by politically skilled leaders of elite families and by ‘new men’ from less wealthy and less known families who have the necessary savvy for the age of mass electoral politics.”
After hearing or reading these two speeches, one cannot but conclude that democracy and suffrage have not been good for the country. Fifty years ago, according to SyCip, “we were the most promising nation in East Asia.” Yet, he concludes, “we have miserably failed compared to our neighbors.” The Philippines failed to reduce poverty, improve education, and provide decent health care and housing for most of the people.
Today, according to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the Philippines, once ahead of its neighbors, is the slowest growing economy in Asia, per capita. The UNDP data also suggests the country is also the slowest growing in the world in terms of per capita income growth.
From 1975 to 2004, a period of 30 years, the Philippines registered per capita income growth of exactly zero! This implies that whatever growth the country was registering was being wiped out by population growth. If you grow say by 2.3 percent per year and the population rises also by 2.3 percent per year, the effect, per capita, is zero.
In contrast, during 1975 to 2004, China posted per capita income growth of 8.4 percent, Vietnam 5.6 percent, Thailand 5 percent, Singapore 4.7 percent, Malaysia 4.1 percent, and Indonesia 4.1 percent. The Philippines? Zero.
SyCip sees a connection between Western-style democracy and poor growth. “We are behind Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, all of whom had not blindly followed the western model of development which puts its emphasis on political freedom,” he notes, adding that “Vietnam, certainly not a western democracy, may pass us this year. Indonesia’s per capita income has declined after three weak presidents elected under a democracy praised by the West.”
Chief Justice Puno sees flawed elections as the culprit. Elite families are able to manipulate them. SyCip points to another culprit—high population growth. “A slowdown in the population growth is urgently needed,” he asserts.
The SGV founder asks: “Can the many good deeds of the Catholic Church be offset by their refusal to face the population problem squarely?” He laments that “the influence of the Church on elections prevents the politicians to speak openly on this issue—although privately, they agree on the urgency of the problem.”
The evidence is strong that authoritarian rule promotes growth. During 1974 the second year of Ferdinand Marcos’s smiling martial law, the Philippines achieved 9.8 percent economic growth—the highest in the country’s history.
Yet, the strongman Marcos was pressured by the West to call many elections. The last one, in February 1986, resulted in People Power and in his ouster.
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