THE financial meltdown ushers the Philippine government on stage to a theater of the absurd: the source of economic breather, migrant workers, is now the source of pressure.
.....according to economist Ernesto Pernia, the crisis in the global financial system may
reduce remittances, the economy’s lifeblood, as employers in destination countries cut costs.
...According to Pernia, remittances
helped reduce poverty by 2-3 million persons.
“A 10-percent increase in the
share of remittances in household income is associated with a 2.6-percent rise in the proportion lifted out of poverty, controlling for other variables [such as education and health],” Pernia said.
But, as Pernia said: ceteris paribus; the
benefits of remittances is felt by poor household only if all other things being equal.
“On the whole, the [SIZE=3]
poor appear to benefit from remittances [/SIZE]but
[SIZE=3]only modestly compared with the richer households. [/SIZE]
Given that bigger proportions of the
upper-income groups receive remittances and, indeed, greater average amounts, the [SIZE=3]
beneficial effect of remittances is skewed in their [richer households’] favor.”[/SIZE]
For one, Pernia said while r[SIZE=4]
emittances have greatly helped alleviate fiscal deficits, external debts, trade imbalances and scant foreign direct investments, it has also helped spawn a phenomenon called the “Dutch disease.”[/SIZE]
[SIZE=4]
[/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]Foreign-exchange inflows, for example, “may spur a real appreciation of the exchange rate, thereby constraining the development of export-oriented and import-competing industries.”[/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]
[/SIZE]
Productivity also
went down because of migration, according to Pernia, who noted that
[SIZE=3]remittances “appear to exert a negative effect on the share of employed persons in the household.”[/SIZE]
He calls this the “
[SIZE=4]complacency effect” wherein people who used to work have become dependent on the money sent by their kin abroad.[/SIZE]
It is something that Pernia said he observed as remittances grew to more than the foreign direct investment flowing into the country. “
The remittance windfall may have a [SIZE=3]moral hazard effect [/SIZE]as the government softens in pursuing policy reform or improved governance while people are lulled into complacency.”
Taken from:
A Missing The Migration Gravy Train
by Dennis Estopace
Business Mirror
November 10, 2008