SWS poll: 79 percent want GMA impeached

[explorer]

from: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryID=15940

Seventy-nine percent or Filipinos wanted President Arroyo impeached over alleged poll rigging and bribery, according to a survey released Saturday.

The third-quarter survey by the pollster Social Weather Stations had 1,200 respondents and was made just before the House Committee on Justice voted to dismiss all three impeachment complaints against the President.

"Anti-Arroyo feelings ran very high in the last few days of the recent hearings of the House Committee on Justice," said the survey, which had a 3-percent error margin.

The poll found 79 percent of the respondents wanted Mrs. Arroyo impeached because of the prevailing sentiment that her telephone conversation with an election official was tantamount to cheating.

"Most Filipinos [believe that Mrs. Arroyo’s] admitted phone calls to a [Commission on Elections] official amounted to instructing him to cheat in the 2004 election and were not merely meant to protect her votes as she claimed in her June 27 apology," the SWS said in a statement.

Presented other exit options for Mrs. Arroyo, 64 percent said they wanted her to resign, and another 51 percent said she should be removed through a people-power revolt.

The results of the survey disputed claims by 158 lawmakers, in voting to throw out all three impeachment cases against the President, that their position reflected the sentiments of their constituents.

Refusing to accept defeat, the advocates of impeachment said they would resurrect the case by filing a motion for reconsideration once Congress resumes session on September 19.

Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano of Taguig-Pateros said the proimpeachment group needs only one congressman who voted to dismiss Oliver Lozano’s complaint as lacking in substance to file the motion during the plenary session.

He said once the "yes" congressman files the motion, it will be seconded and put to a vote. But the impeachment advocates need 27 more endorsers to complete the 79 to be able to send the complaint to the Senate. Cayetano said this is allowed under House rules.

The proimpeachment lawmakers decided not to file a case before the Supreme Court to question the House’s dismissal of the impeachment complaint. Instead they will bring the case directly to the people through demonstrations and rallies.

The 236-seat House voted to dismiss the cases against Mrs. Arroyo at the end of a 23-hour session on Tuesday.

[IceColdBeer]

Sabi wag daw paniwalaan ang mga survey

[roninblade]

san kaya nila kinuha yung respondents nila?
1,200 people represents the entire country?
i dont think so. this is a stupid press release.

[explorer]

san kaya nila kinuha yung respondents nila?
1,200 people represents the entire country?
i dont think so. this is a stupid press release.

all reputable survey companies in the country are in that range of respondents in making their survey and most of their survey results as proven in the past have only less than 5% error baseed in the past elections. if you don't know how the survey works, then i understand why you made a comment like that.

[squala]

79% may not be an accurate figure, but for sure, more than half want the President out. It's a sad thing the plenary voting depended on the congressmen's personal choice and not their constituents'.

[cyberdoc95]

This is just something I don't get on Philippine Surveys. I'm not quite sure if I would beleive these surveys. Kung ang election returns nga sa Pilipinas ay wala takot na dinodoctor maski na they can be criminally charged for doing such, how much more on surveys na ganito.

How reliable would the survey be and be reflective of the true sentiments of the entire filipino population? And still, tuloy pa rin sila ng karereport. I don't see anything bad about it but will it really make a difference when we all know how these surveys are done.

While I beleive that surveys should be done, something in this survey is just inherently flawed. 79% is a big number,by the way, and if the President sees that only 21% is actually in favor of her staying in power, then she should leave at once. BUT that doesn't seem like happening. WHY? Well for one, the Palace does not beleive in these surveys and clearly for the same rationale as I have.

SO, all I can say is: SO WHAT if 79% want GMA impeached? Obviously, not even the House of REP is convinced that she should be!

[jvm13]

79% is not precise, but at least it gives us a picture of what most filipinos feel.

[DoctorDoom]

all reputable survey companies in the country are in that range of respondents in making their survey and most of their survey results as proven in the past have only less than 5% error baseed in the past elections. if you don't know how the survey works, then i understand why you made a comment like that.

So can you explain how this survey works and give us some mathematical analysis on how this statistics is supposed to be accurate?

Unless you can tell us the mathematics on how this survey works, then I understand that you are just someone who will readily believe in any kind of propaganda you read in the newspapers.

[DoctorDoom]

79% is not precise, but at least it gives us a picture of what most filipinos feel.

Statistics is one of the most abused fields in science. People always love to play with numbers to convince other people. Anyone who is clueless on how statistics is actually performed will readily believe any kind of number or percentage - sink and sinker.

[DoctorDoom]

It's a sad thing the plenary voting depended on the congressmen's personal choice and not their constituents'.

Simply because the CONSTITUTION has mandated how the voting should be done. The CONSTITUTION did not say that a REFERENDUM is needed to impeach the president.

[mazdamazda]

all reputable survey companies in the country are in that range of respondents in making their survey and most of their survey results as proven in the past have only less than 5% error baseed in the past elections. if you don't know how the survey works, then i understand why you made a comment like that.

So in that case, you will also believe the SWS Presidential Election Exit Poll stating the GMA won fair & square over FPJ (by a margin of around 1M votes)?

51% wants a people power? If that is the case - where the heck are those people? Nilalangaw ang People Power monument.

[boydapa]

it uses random sampling ksi kaya from the point of view of mathematics valid sya... therefore it represents the whole population

[pissword]

hahhaha.. nung sa thesis namin, to get yung ratio ng respondents or tinatawag na sample size..by the way human resource management po yun course ko.. 1 way of getting the sample size is by using Slovin's formula which is

n = N/(1+N(esquared))

where in:

n = the sample size
N = the population size (85M)
e = margin of error (either 0.01 or 0.05)

pag margin of error is 0.05 300+ pax lang nga ang kelangan para sa buong bansa eh hehe pero if 0.01 at least 10K pax ang kelangan..

now ang concern ko lang naman po is i dont think pwede nilang gawin ito sa buong pilipinas, cluster sampling ata dapat, parang per region masmaganda hindi yung 1200 representing buong bansa na...

[empy]

it may sound strange to some of you, but 1200 surveys can be a representative sample of a population of millions as long as the sample is completely randomly generated and free of bias. as long as you are perfectly aware of the margin of error (typically +/- 5% as stated above), you can draw perfectly valid conclusions.

trust me, i do this for a living

it's a worldwide industry standard to use a few thousand samples to poll an entire population...look at Gallup polls as an example, as well as all the polls conducted by other news agencies such as CNN, USA Today, etc. who all follow the Gallup methodology.

the one thing that concerns me about philippine polls is that survey samples may become skewed because your population has differing levels of access to mass media, the internet, and telephones...and as such, you may have some demographics that are not fully represented. but any statistician who knows what she is doing can correct for this.

[pissword]

yes sir M54 powered yun lang din ang concern ko kung equal ba ang pag gather ng samples sa lahat ng region ng Philippines.. as i stated above, kapag 5% ang margin of error kahit as low as 300++ samples lang pwede na, mataas na ang 1200PAX na ginamit nila hehe dati d ko din siya maintindihan

[empy]

So can you explain how this survey works and give us some mathematical analysis on how this statistics is supposed to be accurate?

Unless you can tell us the mathematics on how this survey works, then I understand that you are just someone who will readily believe in any kind of propaganda you read in the newspapers.

Statistics is one of the most abused fields in science. People always love to play with numbers to convince other people. Anyone who is clueless on how statistics is actually performed will readily believe any kind of number or percentage - sink and sinker.

:bwahaha: these are some pretty condescending statements...do YOU understand how public polling surveys work? or are you trying to say that SWS is dishonest and is working off their own agenda?

[mrpink]

well .. depende siguro kung gaano comprehensive yung survey .. kung categorical yes/no lang impeach gma .. i would probably vote impeach .. but if it's qualified .. parang .. given that there are currently no legal grounds to impeach gma do you continue yes/no .. there is no clear direction after impeachment do you continue yes/no .. once impeached you have estradas and marcos cronies and relatives leading the country again do you continue yes/no .. ibang usapan na .. i've never seen the survey .. it would be good to see kung ano yung tinanong sa mga respondents ..

[mazdamazda]

here's the full text:

August 26-September 5, 2005 Social Weather Survey:
79% Pro-Impeachment, 64% Pro-Resignation,
51% Pro-People-Power If GMA Not Impeached
Social Weather Stations

Anti-GMA feelings ran very high in the last few days of the recent hearings of the House Committee on Justice, with the nationwide 3rd Quarter 2005 Social Weather Survey finding 79% wanting President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo impeached, 64% favoring her resignation, and 51% saying she should be removed by People Power if the House of Representatives would reject her impeachment.

The Garci factor

The key factor in the negative sentiment is the belief of most Filipinos that GMA's admitted phone calls to "a Comelec official" amounted to instructing him to cheat in the 2004 election, and were not merely meant to protect her votes as she claimed in her June 27 apology.

Among the majority 57% believing that GMA's phone calls gave instructions to cheat, 89% were pro-impeachment, 80% were pro-resignation, and 62% were pro-People-Power.

Among the minority 36% accepting that she called the Comelec official only to protect her votes, a large 68% were nevertheless pro-impeachment, but only 44% were pro-resignation, and only 35% were pro-People-Power.

Mixed opinions about the House and the Senate

The SWS survey found mixed opinions about whether the House of Representatives could decide fairly on the impeachment of President Arroyo and whether the Senate, in case GMA would be impeached, could decide fairly on whether or not to remove her from office.

Only 22% said they had much trust in the House, whereas 29% said they had little trust in it, and 48% felt unsure either way. Only 24% said they had much trust in the Senate, whereas 25% said they had little trust in it, and 50% felt unsure either way.

Similarity to the prelude to Erap's impeachment

These findings are reminiscent of public opinion in 2000, just before the impeachment of President Joseph 'Erap' Estrada. In October 2000, an SWS survey commissioned by the Manila Standard found public belief or disbelief in the charges of Gov. Luis 'Chavit' Singson against Erap as the key factor in framing opinions as to whether the latter should resign.

The said October 2000 SWS survey found 26% with much trust in the House, 19% with little trust in it, and 54% unsure of it, on the matter of making a fair decision on whether to impeach Erap; it found 26% with much trust in the Senate, 17% with little trust in it, and 57% unsure of it, on the matter of reaching a fair verdict in case Erap would be impeached.

Pro-Impeachment Dominant Everywhere

In the new Social Weather Survey, large majorities in all study areas called for GMA's impeachment: 90% in Metro Manila, 82% in Mindanao, 79% in the Balance of Luzon, and 69% in the Visayas.

The higher the socio-economic class, and the higher the schooling, the greater the support for either impeachment or resignation of President Arroyo.

Visayans Divided On Resignation

Pro-resignation sentiment had majorities in Mindanao (72%), Metro Manila (70%), and the Balance of Luzon (65%).
Visayans, however, were split into 49% favoring and 50% opposing GMA's resignation.

People Power

The call for People Power to remove GMA in case of non-impeachment was a dominant 51% in favor, versus 26% against, and 23% undecided.

The percentage scores for and against such People Power were 62-25 in Metro Manila, 51-28 in the Balance of Luzon, 40-31 in the Visayas, and 53-21 in Mindanao, with the remainders from 100 percent being the undecided in each area.

The very poor E classes were highly in favor of People Power, by a score of 54-18, followed by the D class or masa, with a score of 51-26.

The middle-to-upper or ABC classes, on the other hand, were split 43-42 on the use of People Power.

Net Satisfaction of PGMA at -23

The August 2005 Social Weather Survey found 30% satisfied and 53% dissatisfied with the performance of GMA, giving her a very low Net Satisfaction Rating of -23.

This was not as bad, however, as in May 2005 when there were 26% satisfied and 59% dissatisfied or a Net Satisfaction Rating of -33, the record low for all Presidents beginning with Corazon Aquino.

The President's net satisfaction rating in the Visayas, where she customarily draws her strongest support, climbed back to merely zero, from -15 in May.

In other areas her net rating was negative, at -44 in NCR, -26 in Mindanao, and -25 in the Balance of Luzon.

GMA's rating rose by 3 points in NCR and by 22 points in the Balance of Luzon, but fell by 14 points in Mindanao.

According to socioeconomic class, her net satisfaction rating was -13 among the middle-to-upper ABCs, -23 among the masa or Ds, and -31 among the very poor Es.

Survey Background

The Social Weather Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2005 and the Manila Standard-commissioned SWS survey of October 26-30, 2000 both used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for area percentages).

In the new Social Weather Survey, all interviews outside Metro Manila were completed during August 26-31. In Metro Manila, 259 interviews were done over August 26-31; the balance of 41 interviews were completed over September 1-5. Thus, although the inclusive field period for the national sample was August 26 to September 5, 97% of the interviews had been done by the evening of August 31 when the House Committee on Justice voted to reject all the impeachment complaints.

Analysis of the component of the Metro Manila sample consisting of interviews with individuals having landline telephones in their homes shows consistency with the findings of the three telephone surveys done by SWS in Metro Manila from late June to early August 2005.

The items described in this release were not commissioned, but were included on SWS's own initiative. The quarterly Social Weather Surveys are supported by subscribers, who have no proprietary rights over the data. The Fourth Quarter 2005 Social Weather Survey will be fielded sometime in November.

[empy]

yes sir M54 powered yun lang din ang concern ko kung equal ba ang pag gather ng samples sa lahat ng region ng Philippines.. as i stated above, kapag 5% ang margin of error kahit as low as 300++ samples lang pwede na, mataas na ang 1200PAX na ginamit nila hehe dati d ko din siya maintindihan

oo nga ser...halos sabay tayong nagpost so parang pareho tayo ng sinabi

ang mahirap sa 5% MOE, if the result is between 46% and 54% you have no idea if you have a majority or not. but at 79%, the lowest percentage of pinoys in favor of impeachment is 74%. pretty overwhelming odds.

but as i mention above in my post to mr. tough guy, if SWS did something stupid or dishonest like do an internet or text-only survey, or only polled people in Manila, then this survey is not worth the bandwidth it's taking up.

btw, i'm not a big fan of cluster sampling since imo there's too much risk of weighting the clusters incorrectly or picking the incorrect cluster subjects. kung pwede lang sana na may malaking drop box with the name of every single pinoy tapos truly random drawing ;)

[jedi]

SWS is a private firm, and they are even hired by large companies to do surveys from them for their companies interest pero ciempre about their products and services.

it just so happen na someone hired them to do a survey for this natioanl issue. I am sure they are unbiased for this kasi... this is their business... masisira credibility nila kung mapapatunayan na naduktor yung survey.