Is the Philippines heading for a recession?

[uls]

technically, di pa tayo recession

RP has flat growth according to the latest govt data (di pa tayo nag negative)

http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/1stQ2009/2009qpr1.asp

Weighed down by the impact of the US financial meltdown and the global crisis, historic declines in manufacturing and trade sent the Philippine economy into hiccups, albeit afloat, with a GDP growth of 0.4 percent from 3.9 percent.

but we are only at end of Q2

we could go negative in Q3 and Q4

[tidus1203]

The definition of recession is if your neighbor loses his job, if you lose yours then its a depression! So are we in a recession? Go figure!

[ghosthunter]

technically, di pa tayo recession

RP has flat growth according to the latest govt data (di pa tayo nag negative)

http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/1stQ2009/2009qpr1.asp

And you believe the government data from the Philippine government?

[uls]

hehe

ummm...

we can use anecdotal data

we can ask people "how's business?"

for sure almost everyone will have the same answer --- mahina

[uls]

as i was saying...

Ballooning deficit puts RP at risk of downgrade--ING
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/...-downgrade-ing

MANILA - Worsening economic conditions could push the Philippines' budget deficit above the targeted ceiling, raising the likelihood of a credit rating downgrade, Dutch banking giant ING said Thursday.

"We think there will be further revisions to the deficit target and that the likelihood of a negative rating action has gone up," said ING analyst Tim Condon.

The market has been increasingly pessimistic about the country's ratings as the deficit continues to balloon and debt ratios deteriorate due to increased borrowings.

Foreign banks have made dire predictions about the country's deficit level this year, with Citibank projecting a budget shortfall of P400 billion due mainly to the Bureau of Internal Revenue's dwindling tax effort.

Debt watcher says downgrade possible for RP
http://www.bworldonline.com/BW061009/content.php?id=003

THE PHILIPPINES’ credit ratings could be downgraded if the government fails to increase revenues and meet its budget deficit goal, global debt watcher Standard & Poor’s (S&P) yesterday warned.

The rating firm also revised its growth forecast for the country to 1.3% from 1.7% previously, citing the country’s poor economic performance — an uptick of just 0.4% — in the first quarter.

In a report entitled "Asia-Pacific Sovereign Report Card: Amid Encouraging Signs, A Bumpy Road Lies Ahead", the firm said a ratings change depended highly on the state of government revenues and stimulus spending for the rest of the year.

The firm has a ‘BB’ rating for the country’s long-term foreign currency-denominated issuances, ‘BB+’ for its peso-denominated long-term debt papers, ‘B’ for its short-term issuer default rating, and ‘BB+’ country ceiling.

The outlook for the ratings is stable.

[1D4LV]

hehe

ummm...

we can use anecdotal data

we can ask people "how's business?"

for sure almost everyone will have the same answer --- mahina

+1. i have two businesses... both are really "mahina..."

[valvura]

RP debt yields little changed
Reuters | 06/22/2009 1:41 PM

MANILA - Philippine debt yields were little changed on Monday as uncertainty over the government's fiscal position overshadowed expectations of a further easing in inflation and another rate cut next month.

Yields retreated from a four-month high last week after the government said it was looking to issue $1 billion in Samurai bonds this year, lifting some supply pressure off the domestic bond market.

"Speculation and jubilation is keeping most of the traders on the sidelines," a trader from a local bank said.

"The euphoria that everybody got from Samurai bonds is wearing off because, unlike ROPs (Philippine sovereign bonds), it may take a bit more time before the Samurai bonds could be issued.

"What is coming back into the picture is the budget deficit. An improvement in the revenue stream in May will add some confidence to the market, but if we see further weakening, we will see more profit takers come back."

The government is set to announce its budget data for May on Tuesday.

A worse-than-expected deficit figure would likely push yields up as much as 35 basis points, traders said, but a favourable inflation outlook for June will probably help temper a further uptick.

"Most analysts still expect the annual June inflation to be benign. I think it is just helping temper the negative sentiment, but if you are looking for a market driver it is really the budget data," the trader said.

The government had assumed a P45 billion ($930 million) budget shortfall in the second quarter under the previous budget deficit goal of P199.2 billion, or 2.5 percent of gross domestic product.

It has yet to announce its quarterly budget deficit assumptions under the new 2009 fiscal shortfall goal of P250 billion, or 3.2 percent of GDP.

An auction of P8.5 billion worth of 10-year treasury bonds on Tuesday will likely fetch an average rate of 7.5 to 8 percent, traders said, almost unchanged from the April 28 auction.
as of 06/22/2009 1:41 PM

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/...little-changed

[4tunerxiii]

kinda frustrating to think about it... Philippines is a struggling developing country for decades.. i guess it has been in a recession every now and then for long... today's just one of the worst..

[Lucius]

With the current circus, nothing will change in this country.

[Gen. Miting]

masyado marami lang nagkukuripot ngaun saka nag-cocompute. the thing is if they do this all througout their lives, talagang hindi mag-iimprove buhay nila.

as i have been saying over and over since january, the world stopped bec. wala na excitement ang tao bilhin. that's the real culprit. technology has made our lives too efficient kaya wala na gano desires/wants.

pero ako alam ko future trend hehehe. kaya nawala ako dito sa tsikot for so many months. been monitoring and analyzing. no sense investing in technology. darating na ang panahon ang isang laptop ay katulad na lang ng regular calculator. puwede mabili ng tig 2k bec. that is essentially the new calculator dala na din ng bagong computer generation.

the world is heading to recession bec. technology has made obsolete so many types of jobs.