Philippine Economy Talk

[Monseratto]

Will vote buying lead to inflation ..hehehe

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[kisshmet]

^more money in circulation daw..mataas ang inflation..negative daw sa economy

With the trillion peso presidential pork barrel in their hands thats forthcoming this month of may

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[uls]

^its good for the economy coz people will get more job (although temporary)

not only temporary jobs

companies that get first taste of election spending will benefit (syempre more revenue)

madami papakainin tuwing campaign season so for example jollibee will benefit (JFC top gainer yata yesterday PH stocks)

But you see the rise of inflation as something negative

yes coz inflation is still above BSP target and this election spending could keep it above target

[kisshmet]

^Malaki kita ng advertising..printing press..vehicle rentals..tshirt printing..campaign stuffs

Campaign period is time limited..so job created related to it is temporary

The only permanent thing about it is the position politicos will vie for and their staff

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[uls]

so ano po point niyo?

kahit temporary surge of spending may benefit parin sa economy

diba ang pinaguusapan kung ano ang effect sa economy itong election season?

[uls]

there's also temporary surge of spending during christmas season which is also good for the economy

any kind of spending is good for the economy

money that was sitting in bank accounts go out circulating

[uls]

but too much money in circulation is inflationary

that's why central banks have an inflation target

their job is to maintain price stability

[kisshmet]

so ano po point niyo?

kahit temporary surge of spending may benefit parin sa economy

diba ang pinaguusapan kung ano ang effect sa economy itong election season?

Sabi mo kasi masama sa economy ang maraming perang umiikot dahil tataas ang inflation

Kaso sabi mo ngayon maganda sa economy ang pagasta

So which is which?

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[uls]

Sabi mo kasi masama sa economy ang maraming perang umiikot dahil tataas ang inflation

Kaso sabi mo ngayon maganda sa economy ang pagasta

So which is which?

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reply:

but too much money in circulation is inflationary

that's why central banks have an inflation target

their job is to maintain price stability

___________

[uls]

ever heard people say "bakit hindi nalang mag print ng madaming pera?"

pwede... but you end up like Venezuela

[uls]

when an economy is weak, the central bank encourages consumers to borrow by lowering interest rates

and the central bank will let commercial banks hold less money in reserve so they can lend out more money

like what China is doing




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kaya nagrant ako early last year why BSP lowered RRR with inflation going up

as if the economy needs more liquidity andami na nga umiikot na pera

buti nalang BSP came to its senses and stopped cutting RRR

[uls]

market sees Fed tightening pause

foreign funds return to PH

[Monseratto]

PSE closed with a rare 200+ pts finish... Peso steady at 52.37 to the dollar

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[uls]

PSE closed with a rare 200+ pts finish... Peso steady at 52.37 to the dollar

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from the other thread:



market pricing in 1 or ZERO rate hikes this year

bullish for emerging markets

[uls]

really Fitch?

here's my counter-argument

if the Fed doesn't raise rates this year

if the Fed's balance sheet normalization (meaning shrinking its balance sheet) which is on autopilot now (currently -$50B per month) is put on hold...

there will be no more support for the dollar

dollars flow back to emerging markets = stronger EM currencies

[uls]

IMO the dollar can't go any higher unless the Fed stays the course of its rate hike path and balance sheet reduction

but there are signs the US economy is losing momentum so the Fed may pause or change course





That's good for PHP


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that is if PH avoids self-inflicted damage

[minicarph]

Uls kakabile ko lang ng bago kong IPad, lower than the dollar SRP sa apple store. hello Apple Pencil baby hihihi

[uls]

^^^

hihihi

pray mo humina US economy para lalo humina dollar

[uls]

outperform

psei 7985.23

foreign funds return bigtime

[uls]

banks exposed to Hanjin default: RCBC, Landbank, Metrobank, BPI, BDO

total $412M

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the banks now taking over Hanjin's shipyard in Subic