Oil Price Watch

[BratPAQ]

So are we expecting an increase this weekend?

Papakarga na kasi ako kung magkakaron. Hehe.

"di bababa sa 90 cents per liter sa gasolina" ayon sa balita. Usually yan tuesday morning so para safe nagpapagas ako ng sunday evening.

[renzo_d10]

Damn! Papa-gas na ako this weekend.

Grabe kelan ba ulit babalik yung gas sa P48/L. Hehe.

[niky]

Pipe dream. Maybe if the Chinese economy implodes. But then, we'll be too busy dodging the shrapnel to enjoy it.

[uls]

when oil prices started falling in May i attributed it to risk-off (fear)... NOT supply and demand fundamentals

May 6 elections in Greece -- the market was pricing in anti-austerity parties would win which would jeopardize the bailout which would lead to Greece defaulting which would lead to Greece exiting the euro

look at when the euro started falling... May



now look at when oil started falling... May



now look at what level where the euro and oil are now

highest since when?

May

[uls]

when oil price started falling in May i attributed it to risk off (fear)... not supply and demand

May 6 elections in Greece. before the elections the market was pricing in the victory of anti-austerity parties which would jeopardize the bailout which would cause Greece to default which would lead to Greece leaving the euro

look at when the euro really started falling... May



and look at when oil really started falling... May



now look at where the euro and oil are now... highest since when?

May

supply and demand?

nope

it's risk on risk off

[uls]

Crude oil ought to be $150 per barrel: Iran | Reuters

(Reuters) - Crude oil should be at least $150 per barrel, Iran's oil minister was quoted as saying on Sunday, and the sanctions-hit country's OPEC governor said current oil prices were not high enough to threaten the world economy.

hey Iran, sink a tanker passing the Strait of Hormuz. that will send oil to $150

[Monseratto]

Or fire a " test satellite" missle towards Israel....

[Ry_Tower]

Natakot kaya sa implications ng protest ng Chinese vs Japan.

[uls]

nag fade lang yung QE-euphoria



pahinga muna

[Ry_Tower]

Taena yan. Next week wala pahinga price increase.

[pop3corn]

Taena yan. Next week wala pahinga price increase.

Yehey! Go for P75 na

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[Ry_Tower]

Yehey! Go for P75 na

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Bad news for you OB. Not only did QE3 waned down investor confidence, seems like islamic protests and tension between Japan and China weighted down the price overnight.

[uls]

Bad news for you OB. Not only did QE3 waned down investor confidence, seems like islamic protests and tension between Japan and China weighted down the price overnight.

nope nothing to do with any of that. it was a rogue algorithm

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...88G1A820120917

Mon Sep 17, 2012 3:15pm EDT
(Reuters) - IntercontinentalExchange Inc said it had no comment on the high-speed sell-off in Brent crude oil futures on Monday, which saw prices fall by more than $5 a barrel in a matter of minutes.

Traders said the price action looked like an algorithmic trade gone bad due to the speed and the volume of the selling.

ICE is the home of the Brent crude oil contract in London.

U.S. crude oil futures and oil products, including RBOB gasoline and heating oil, also sold off between 1:52 pm EDT (1752 GMT) and 1:55 pm EDT.

CME Group (CME.O), where U.S. crude primarily trades, said it was not aware of any technical issue that may have contributed to the selling on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

Brent fell from $115.20 a barrel at 1:52 pm EDT to an intraday low of $111.60 a barrel at 1:55 pm EDT.

[uls]

update: not rogue algo or trader error

very likely liquidation of long positions by a hedge fund then other players followed

as the price went down sell stops were tripped which triggered more selling

[uls]

Saudi Arabia acting to lower oil prices: Gulf source | Reuters

(Reuters) - Saudi Arabia is acting to lower oil prices, a senior Gulf source said on Tuesday, adding that the majority of OPEC producers wanted oil prices around $100 per barrel.

The Gulf source told reporters the oil market was well balanced with no shortage of oil supply.

Saudi Arabia was producing around 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would be increasing output over the next few months.

"We would like to see the price coming down and we are working to bring it down," said the Gulf source.

"The price now, we believe is high, and it's not supported by fundamentals at all. It's just speculation and geopolitics."

"The majority of OPEC countries prefer around $100, including Saudi Arabia," he said, adding that $100 per barrel was "right now the ideal price for the majority of OPEC countries ... the majority is all except one or two."

"We think the oil market is well balanced," the Gulf source added.

[Ry_Tower]

^ seems to be working fast on oil futures. Big drop. Its the lowest in a month.

[uls]

one large seller, others followed

sell orders triggered more sell orders

One big order, thousands of small ones, seen behind oil tumble | Energy & Oil | Reuters

One big order, thousands of small ones, seen behind oil tumble
Tue Sep 18, 2012 11:29pm GMT

NEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - A single large sell order in the benchmark European Brent oil market, followed by an abrupt U-turn among high-frequency traders, may have caused one of the most abrupt price routs ever, brokers and analysts said on Tuesday.

As the dust settled on Monday's four-minute, nearly $4 plunge, other possible causes such as an erroneous "fat finger" trade, a computer program run amok or a broad, rumor-driven sell-off were set aside in favor of a combination of one big trade - potentially as much as 12 million barrels worth some $1.4 billion - and tens of thousands of computerized orders.

"There was most likely a large fundamental seller in the market yesterday," said Eric Scott Hunsader, Chief Executive of Nanex, a trading consultancy that regularly conducts detailed forensic analysis of erratic market activity.

But assuming a single seller got the ball rolling lower, it was algorithmic traders that almost certainly extended and intensified the decline, causing a 20-fold spike in volume as risk limits or automated price triggers fueled selling.

Prices fell moderately at first, with Brent crude dropping by just 98 cents over the first three minutes. But the sell-off intensified over 46 seconds after 13:53:56 p.m., at which point market-makers may have been forced to liquidate.

"We can see from looking at the tick data that initially the High Frequency market makers were willing to absorb their position around $98 a barrel in U.S. crude," said Hunsader, who examined detailed trading data in the NYMEX market.

Separately, several broker sources said the sell-off originated in the Brent market.

"This created what the CFTC has described in the past as a 'hot potato' event, where the position was rapidly passed on in a way that looks very similar to the equity market 'flash crash' in May 2010."

so why did the large seller sell? syempre to take profit

[uls]

oil had a good run

the smart money has taken profits. others follow

this is what happens when everyone rushes to the exit

__________________

Oil falls on Saudi pressure to keep prices down
By Simon Falush | Reuters – 14 mins ago

LONDON (Reuters) - Brent crude oil futures slid to a six-week low on Wednesday, as the market digested comments from the world's largest oil exporter Saudi Arabia that it would take action to keep prices in check, raising expectations of increased supply.

On Tuesday an OPEC Gulf source said Saudi Arabia was pumping around 10 million barrels per day (bpd) and working to keep oil prices down.

[Ry_Tower]

Prices now at $108.


I wonder how the market would react to QE from BoE and BoJ's move of asset purchases? Pero sabagay, mas mabigat yung weight nung announcement ng Saudi. They (OPEC) could probably just increase production a bit more.

[renzo_d10]

Yehey may rollback!

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