Oil Price Watch

[uls]

nope

but consider this -- a larger budget that goes to fuel means people are cutting back somewhere else

there gotta be businesses out there experiencing decline in sales

[Battlestar]

Any of you guys noticed a reduction of cars on the road yet?... I haven't.

Walang pinagbago. Next month siguro wala na kase pasok mga estudyante.

[uls]

for the past week the cost of hiring one of those very large crude carriers (VLCCs) has been rising

yun pala Saudi Arabia has hired 11 VLCCs to deliver crude oil to the US

Saudi Arabia Books Most Oil Tankers to Supply U.S. in Years - Businessweek

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is booking the most tankers in years to supply the U.S., a sign the kingdom is fulfilling a pledge to compensate for a decline in Iranian sales, according to Dahlman Rose & Co.

Vela, the shipping unit of state-owned Saudi Aramco, booked nine so-called very large crude carriers in the past week to go to the U.S., Omar Nokta, a New York-based analyst, said in a report today. A further two vessels, each capable of carrying about 2 million barrels, were chartered earlier in March and all 11 are scheduled to load in the last week of this month or first week of April, Nokta said. Vela booked an average of one VLCC to the U.S. every other month last year, he said.

election year

gotta bring down fuel prices or lose the election

looks like somebody in the White House made some phone calls to the Saudis

[ghosthunter]

nope

but consider this -- a larger budget that goes to fuel means people are cutting back somewhere else

there gotta be businesses out there experiencing decline in sales

Yup, luxuries like certain foods and eating out will decline.

You guys think places like Starbucks and Sharetea would be affected?

[uls]

http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/354887...-fare-now-p850

MANILA, Philippines — Public utility jeepneys (PUJs) operating in the National Capital Region and Regions 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11 will start charging a minimum fare of P8.50 Wednesday, after the government granted Tuesday the provisional fare increase petitions of transport operators.

--

Yup, luxuries like certain foods and eating out will decline.

You guys think places like Starbucks and Sharetea would be affected?

yup those living on paycheck to paycheck will be affected first

yung mga naka budget na lahat ng monthly expenses... with higher fuel prices they have to shift more money to fuel so groceries or something else in their monthly expenses gets cut. maybe eating out

ngayon tumaas na jeepney fare so commuters have to allot more of their income to pamasahe so something else gets cut

a decline in economic activity will show up in govt data a few months from now

--

anyone out there who can get reports from wet market vendors... ask them kung humina ang benta

[vinj]

anyone out there who can get reports from wet market vendors... ask them kung humina ang benta

People will shift from buying at the grocery to the market instead?

[uls]

People will shift from buying at the grocery to the market instead?

no wait... separate yan sa post ko re people cutting back on groceries

pag mahina benta ng mga wet market vendors that means people are cutting back on food

same thing sa supermarkets pero it's easier to extract info from wet market vendors than from supermarket management

[Bin Diesel]

pag mahina benta ng mga wet market vendors that means people are cutting back on food

same thing sa supermarkets pero it's easier to extract info from wet market vendors than from supermarket management

Reported na early this month may decline na sa benta ng mga nagtitinda ng gulay sa Benguet wala na daw bumibyahe gaano na mga trucks and jeeps na galing sa maynila para kumuha ng supply.

[uls]

coz mahal ang fuel

kung pinilit nila sugal yan

pag dating dito ng gulay at sobra taas ng presyo (kasi kelangan bawiin ang fuel expense) at wala bumili at kelangan ibagsak ang presyo para maibenta... lugi na

so they rather not take that chance

[wowiesy]

coz mahal ang fuel

kung pinilit nila sugal yan

pag dating dito ng gulay at sobra taas ng presyo (kasi kelangan bawiin ang fuel expense) at wala bumili at kelangan ibagsak ang presyo para maibenta... lugi na

so they rather not take that chance

but may market ba sa area na pinanggalingan nila? perishable ang goods nila.. kung ipilit nila na hindi bumiyahe, mabubulok sa kanila ang gulay nila...

so to an extent... di nila magawa ng full blast to...

[Battlestar]

Hi Guys, diba dapat yung fuel company dictate a new price increase once their fuel stock also empty? Like for this example, ako si Petron and I purchased 1 tank of fuel for PHp 40 per liter. After 4 days meron pa kalahati tanke ko. Si market nagtaas ng piso so Php 41 per liter na at bumili ako ng half tank so puno na ulit tanke ko. Diba dapat paubusin muna nila sa consumer ang kalahating tanke ng fuel na nabili ko na Php 40 few days ago bago mag price increase?

[shadow]

Hi Guys, diba dapat yung fuel company dictate a new price increase once their fuel stock also empty? Like for this example, ako si Petron and I purchased 1 tank of fuel for PHp 40 per liter. After 4 days meron pa kalahati tanke ko. Si market nagtaas ng piso so Php 41 per liter na at bumili ako ng half tank so puno na ulit tanke ko. Diba dapat paubusin muna nila sa consumer ang kalahating tanke ng fuel na nabili ko na Php 40 few days ago bago mag price increase?

kailangan na nila I factor in yun increase sa next buy nila, kaya increase na rin kanit old stock pa binebenta

[wowiesy]

Hi Guys, diba dapat yung fuel company dictate a new price increase once their fuel stock also empty? Like for this example, ako si Petron and I purchased 1 tank of fuel for PHp 40 per liter. After 4 days meron pa kalahati tanke ko. Si market nagtaas ng piso so Php 41 per liter na at bumili ako ng half tank so puno na ulit tanke ko. Diba dapat paubusin muna nila sa consumer ang kalahating tanke ng fuel na nabili ko na Php 40 few days ago bago mag price increase?

That approach can be done depending on the type of item being traded... Sa commodities especially basic necessities... Di puwede yan... Hindi lang kasi price ang concern kungdi availability...

Kung uubusin muna nila lumang price, that would meN mag stop buying sila... Assuming may 5 days stock sila at the old price.. Intay maubos ang 5 days supply.. Bago sila magtaas.. That pre supposes na lead time to deliver is a few hours lang... They can buy at the new price after the old stock runs out... Then sell agad at the new higher price...

In the real world..lead times arent a few hours.. They take weeks transit.. Can we afford to not have supply for weeks? So kahit dpa ubos current inventory, buy na uli... And they buy at a higher price...so taas na ng bahagya price dito para may pandagdag sila sa pambayad ng bagong parating na mas mahal na....

At least. Pag pataas ang trend medyo naiintindigan ko how it works. ..

Pero pag pababa ang trend,. Yun medyo di ko ma gets ano nangyayari kung bakit ganoon medyo matagal mag reflect sa pump... To prevent losses the oil companies?

[Bin Diesel]

coz mahal ang fuel

kung pinilit nila sugal yan

pag dating dito ng gulay at sobra taas ng presyo (kasi kelangan bawiin ang fuel expense) at wala bumili at kelangan ibagsak ang presyo para maibenta... lugi na

so they rather not take that chance

Yes that's the point. Time to brace ourselves.

[uls]

Hi Guys, diba dapat yung fuel company dictate a new price increase once their fuel stock also empty? Like for this example, ako si Petron and I purchased 1 tank of fuel for PHp 40 per liter. After 4 days meron pa kalahati tanke ko. Si market nagtaas ng piso so Php 41 per liter na at bumili ako ng half tank so puno na ulit tanke ko. Diba dapat paubusin muna nila sa consumer ang kalahating tanke ng fuel na nabili ko na Php 40 few days ago bago mag price increase?

kelangan niya taasan ang presyo ng old stock para may pambili ng new stock na mas mahal

kung maintain old price siya hanggang maubos ang old stock tapos bibili siya ng new stock na mas mahal kukulangin ang puhunan niya (naka set aside na ang profit from selling the old stock at old price). para mabili niya ang new stock na mas mahal kelangan niya ng dagdag puhunan which will come from the profit that was set aside. so nawala na yung kinita niya

he always has to be forward-looking. pag nagtaas ng presyo supplier niya kelangan magtaas din siya agad para may sapat na puhunan pambili ng new stock while preserving profit

[niky]

The reasons the prices don't go down right away is there's a knock-on effect. The gasoline stations and distributors don't buy crude. They buy refined product. That refined product comes from another company that has to buy the crude, and who also has to charge higher or lower depending on the price of oil per barrel.

Then there are the losses incurred when they don't increase prices right away... like in 2008 where they delayed price rises. In a perfectly capitalist system, back in 2008, dapat one-time big-time price increase yun (even now, that's the way it should be), but they had to temper the price increases to ensure they didn't kill off demand completely. They absorb losses when doing this, due to buying new stock at lower margins, so they have to keep the prices higher and lower gradually, also.

----

And before we hear the same old complaint that the profits of gas stations are huge... obviously if sales volume is huge, gross profit is huge. What isn't seen is what percentage return this means for investors. If you don't guarantee a return for your investors, you might as well not be in business at all.

[Monseratto]

Too bad simple and narrow minded militants don't see or ignore how the oil market really works.

[uls]

^^^

those militants probably never experienced running a business in their lives

if they ran a sari-sari store lang they would understand

bumili ka ng paninda sa Puregold... let's say kendi

puhunan mo P1.00 each. bentahan mo P1.50. kita mo P0.50 each

di pa ubos ang stock mo pero bumalik ka sa Puregold para bumili ng pandagdag... nakita mo P1.50 na ang kendi

so ano gagawin mo sa presyo ng old stock? bebenta mo parin ng P1.50? o gagawin mo P2.00?

[crazy_boy]

kelangan niya taasan ang presyo ng old stock para may pambili ng new stock na mas mahal

kung maintain old price siya hanggang maubos ang old stock tapos bibili siya ng new stock na mas mahal kukulangin ang puhunan niya (naka set aside na ang profit from selling the old stock at old price). para mabili niya ang new stock na mas mahal kelangan niya ng dagdag puhunan which will come from the profit that was set aside. so nawala na yung kinita niya

he always has to be forward-looking. pag nagtaas ng presyo supplier niya kelangan magtaas din siya agad para may sapat na puhunan pambili ng new stock while preserving profit

just to add:


also, may loses din ang distributors ng fuel and stations. they do forecast. if maling forecast, biglang roll back yung prices and over stocked sila, they have to absorb the loses. its also a gamble. hindi sila laging panalo.


btt: bumababa na ulit yung Brent Crude.

[uls]

just to add:


also, may loses din ang distributors ng fuel and stations. they do forecast. if maling forecast, biglang roll back yung prices and over stocked sila, they have to absorb the loses. its also a gamble. hindi sila laging panalo.


btt: bumababa na ulit yung Brent Crude.

kaya di sila pwede mag baba agad ng presyo

kung nabili nila ng mas mataas kelangan muna i-maintain ang higher price kahit bumaba na ang reference prices abroad