Manila Times
December 14, 2008
Special report
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50,000 to 100,000 OFWs will lose their Jobs[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]by Federico Macaranas
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[SIZE=2]THE forecasts of the global economic conditions are deteriorating faster as the United States brings down the European and Japanese economies in 2009.[/SIZE]
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[SIZE=2]Yes, the cooling down in 2008 is expected to worsen through the next quarters of next year, but many analysts point to late 2009 as the beginning of an uptick in the real economy. [/SIZE]
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[/SIZE][SIZE=2]Consumer spending growth will slow down; so will private sector investment. [/SIZE]
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Impacts[/SIZE]
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[SIZE=2]First to be impacted are about 50,000 (even up to 100,000 in the Department of Labor and Employment’s (DOLE) worst-case scenario) Filipinos working in countries already hit by credit crunches and other financial problems that have translated to slower production and hence to layoffs.[/SIZE]
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[SIZE=2]Because many overseas Filipinos hold vital jobs, some are not given termination notices; moreover, the Filipino worker is adaptable and flexible (documented in the yearly surveys of the Institute for International Management Development in Switzerland for some 60 countries). [/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Job opportunities are also open in Canada (Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, etc.) as per DOLE and the Department of Foreign Affairs, but more doubtfully in Australia, New Zealand, France and Sweden reported in a recent AIM Policy Center forum on “Reintegrating Displaced Workers into the Local Economies.”[/SIZE]
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[SIZE=2]These countries are already in recessionary stages. Better business intelligence is needed to provide early warning signals to planners in the country.[/SIZE]
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[SIZE=2]Next to be impacted are those engaged in foreign trade, especially exporters that cannot immediately respond to changing consumer needs (modularized and knockdown furniture for smaller apartments, cheaper apparel and processed foods).[/SIZE]
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[SIZE=2]The US is the largest buyer of Philippine furniture, getting 60 percent of exports.
The declining demand of US consumers for houseware and furniture would have an impact on the exports of Philippine products. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]In 2007, nearly 80 percent of Philippine garments exports, valued at $1.7 billion, went to the US. Trouble will begin next year if no preemptive action like looking for other markets will be taken.[/SIZE]
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Suppliers in the international supply chain—like agricultural raw materials and electronics—will be affected. The electronics industry that accounts for about two-thirds of all Philippine exports is now bracing for no growth at all.[/SIZE]
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In agriculture, corn will be a bonanza. This is reflected in the P1-billion financing aid from South Korea for post-harvest facilities and two bulk grains terminals in Mindanao and Cagayan Valley. To hike production, the Department of Agriculture will open 75,000 hectares of new cornfields. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]On another positive note, as cost-cutting strategies are implemented by American, European and Japanese firms, the business process outsourcing industry of the Philippines will gain clients. [/SIZE]
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(Dr. Federico M. Macaranas is the Executive Director of the Asian Institute of Management Policy Center.)[/SIZE]