Ignorant about scientific surveys?

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from: www.inquirer.net

[SIZE="3"]Ignorant columnists may not be TRO’d[/SIZE]

Social Climate
By Mahar Mangahas
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 23:34:00 04/30/2010

ABOUT COLUMNISTS. EVERY THREE YEARS, IN the Philippines, comes a silly season when some columnists excel in misinforming the public about survey science. These are the ones who assert, for instance, that “a survey of only one or two thousand respondents cannot possibly represent many millions of voters.” Despite repeated demonstrations that a properly conducted sample survey is indeed representative of the whole population, they will not accept it, and would rather bask in their ignorance.

Now, is there a way for a columnist who propagates falsehoods to be legally suppressed? For instance, may professional statisticians petition a court for a Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) to stop a columnist from vilifying statistical research about voters’ preferences? The answer to this is NO.

A columnist has a constitutional right to display his ignorance, without prior restraint. This is because the right of free expression is a preferred right—“prior restraint” and “preferred right” being legal phrases.

The statisticians’ legal remedy for a columnist’s abuse of free speech would be to sue for damages afterwards. But they don’t bother, because a statistically-challenged columnist doesn’t fool the people who really count.

About Gordon’s complaint. Last week, Sen. Richard “Dick” Gordon asked a Regional Trial Court to issue a TRO against Social Weather Stations and another survey entity, to desist from conducting and publishing their election surveys, which he called “false, inaccurate and flawed,” causing him “grave and irreparable injury.”

Gordon’s suit is ridiculously sloppy. Above all, it is ignorant of the Supreme Court’s affirmation that election surveys are constitutionally protected (see my April 17 column). In SWS v. Comelec (G.R. 147571, May 5, 2001), the Court nullified the section of the 2001 Fair Election Act that attempted to ban publication of election surveys. It ruled that such a ban “imposes a prior restraint on the freedom of expression” and forms “a direct and total suppression of a category of expression” during the elections.

Gordon claims that “surveys issued by the defendants … showed him only at the 29th spot,” and yet he won as senator in 2004. Actually, the SWS surveys of the 2004 senatorial race had him as 14th in Jan. 18-22, tied for 16th on Feb. 17-25, 14th on March 21-29, tied for 8th on April 10-17, and tied for 9th (with 29 percent of the vote) on May 1-4. It looks like 29 percent was misread as 29th place. Thus he was already in the winning circle in the last two SWS pre-election surveys.

Gordon’s complaints about methodology are false. (1) My column of March 6, 2010 reported that SWS received two awards from the Gallup World Poll for excellence in field methodology, among all of Gallup’s Asian field providers. (2) Face-to-face interviewing, which we always do, and which Gordon thinks “outmoded,” is part of Gallup’s job order to SWS. (3) We agree with Gordon that sampling should be done by probability, and not by quota. Apparently he doesn’t know that SWS always does the former, and never does the latter.

Gordon calls it “highly improbable” that SWS did two national surveys over as short a period as March 19-30, 2010. Actually, SWS did eight national surveys, not all about elections, over January-April 2010, plus several local surveys.

Gordon alleges that, last April 14, an unidentified SWS pollster in Cebu asked a respondent to choose between only two presidential candidates, instead of among 10. Comments: (1) SWS had no election survey in Cebu on that date; (2) all SWS interviewers have ID cards—tell us her name so that we can check; (3) the published SWS election surveys always feature the 10 candidates; (4) in any case, it is legitimate for anyone to inquire how a voter would choose between two candidates.

Gordon’s claim that SWS fails to disclose its sponsors is false. Check the website, www.sws. org.ph. The SWS Survey Data Library is open to the public. Its staff helps visitors, short of serving as research assistants. The library fee is affordable even to students. Users should come personally, and not expect their technical questions to be answered by mail.

Gordon’s citations of survey errors in past elections are very few; they are the exceptions that prove the rule, like the failure of US pollsters to predict Truman’s win over Dewey in 1948, which he cites as though it was SWS’ fault too. My 2009 paper, “The challenge of election surveys in the Philippines,” summarizes our election survey record; see our website. The error of the 2004 exit poll in Metro Manila was investigated by an independent group of scientists, and no fraudulence was found; see their report on the website.

Gordon’s claim that “there are no associations of professional pollsters and polling firms which regulate, control, and sanction defendants … for their violation of the code of professional ethics …” is false. Seems he hasn’t heard of the Marketing and Opinion Research Society of the Philippines (MORES), founded in 1977. Both MORES and the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), to which key SWS staff members belong, have Codes of Ethics. Last Wednesday, the MORES board of directors issued a press statement denouncing Gordon’s petition for striking at the heart of our democratic process.

If the SWS election surveys were not true, accurate, and best-quality, I wonder if Gordon would still be interested in a TRO. Maybe he would just grant us the same freedom of speech that we allow to ignorant columnists.

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ouch!!!! maraming tatamaan dito...

ayun.....!!!! hinde naintindihan yun 29% naging 29th place....kaya pala maraming nag post dito na 29th daw siya dati sa survey ng SWS.

[tidus1203]

Ang importante lang naman sa survey is dapat yung selection process RANDOM! If one chooses the participants willingly then it will not be accurate! The idea of surveys is to pick a small sample that will represent the whole population and then of course there is a margin of error.

As for Gordon, he is just a LOSER. I didn't even know why he bother filing a lawsuit sayang lang kasi kinakalaban na nya ang constitutionality ng surveys which is protected by Frredom of Speech. Kinda dumb if you ask me for someone who says he is the best bet for President.

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^and a lawyer at that...

[kanamu]

1. Wala pang Court Decision
2. Wala pang May 10 Election

Wag masyado excited baka malasin.

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like some of the forum members here...some politicians have also selective memory loss and phobia on scientific surveys...

from: www.philstar.com

[SIZE="3"]The rising survey phobia epidemic[/SIZE]

AS I WRECK THIS CHAIR
By William M. Esposo
The Philippine Star
Updated May 02, 2010 12:00 AM

The Noynoy Aquino phenomenon – the emergence of a reluctant presidential candidate who is now poised to become the next Philippine president – has spawned another phenomenon. This phenomenon can be called SURVEY PHOBIA or the irrational fear of survey results.

When the results of the April 23–25 Pulse Asia nationwide presidential and vice presidential polls were released last Thursday, there was a sudden rise of survey phobia among the candidates for the top two executive posts of the land and many of their supporters. Before that Pulse Asia release, we usually hear disparaging remarks about the surveys from low rating candidates like Eddie Villanueva.

Villanueva would often cite the supposed 1992 victory of former president Fidel V. Ramos (FVR) as the presidential candidate who won despite performing poorly in the polls of SWS (Social Weather Stations) and Pulse Asia. Villanueva uses that example to promote the idea that he too will win despite his low survey ratings.

That remark makes your Chair Wrecker wonder if Villanueva is suffering from poor memory or intellectual dishonesty. FVR may not have topped the initial 1992 presidential polls but he was certainly the top rater in the last credible polls. In other words, FVR’s victory was consistent with the results of the credible polls.

Even before the release of the Pulse Asia poll, Dick Gordon even went as far as suing the SWS and Pulse Asia in court. Presidential wannabes JC de los Reyes, Nick Perlas, Jamby Madrigal, Gilbert Teodoro, Manny Villar – all expressed their negative reactions to the Pulse Asia survey which showed Noynoy Aquino (with 39%) lead by a huge 19% margin his closest rivals Joseph Estrada and Manny Villar, both of whom rated 20%.

The April 23–25 Pulse Asia poll results were consistent with the previously released SWS, Manila Standard Today, Manila Broadcasting-DZRH surveys which reflected Aquino and Estrada’s upward momentum and Villar’s continued downward spiral. The last time we had such a clear winning trend in the presidential polls was during the 1998 Estrada ascendancy. Estrada won a landslide victory with a 38% vote tally. Aquino is poised to get over 40% of an even larger voting population.

Even Malacanang Palace displayed symptoms of survey phobia after the Pulse Asia survey was released. That was understandable. The 19% and still expanding lead of Aquino can no longer be thwarted by a cheating operation without provoking serious repercussions. With Estrada rising and Villar sinking – as predicted by your Chair Wrecker three weeks ago – the administration is seeing a very hostile new 2010 president. Aquino will prosecute Madame Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA) while Estrada will likely do worse to her.

The presidential contest is a foregone conclusion. Your Chair Wrecker’s fearless forecast is that Aquino will get around 42% of the vote, Estrada with about 22 to 25% and Villar with 18% or lower. With just seven days of campaigning left, the trend can no longer be altered.

The real excitement can now be found in the vice presidential race where Aquino running mate, Mar Roxas, was thought to be a runaway winner already. The recent polls have shown a steady drop in Mar’s ratings and a dramatic, worrisome rise in the ratings of erstwhile third placer Jojo Binay.

Mar’s 20-point lead (43% versus 23%) in the March Pulse Asia survey over his then closest rival – Loren Legarda – is now reduced to a 9-point lead (37% versus 28%) over new second placer Jojo Binay. In the NCR (National Capital Region), Binay already led Mar, 38% versus 34%.

Binay picked up a remarkable upward momentum after Loren Legarda’s disastrous performance in the ABS-CBN Harapan among the vice presidential candidates. Dr. Ana Tabunda of Pulse Asia explained that the endorsement of Chiz Escudero for Binay also had a positive effect, adding impetus to Binay’s upward momentum.

The Pulse Asia survey showed a 6% drop in Mar’s ratings from the previous month while Binay registered a 9% rise. That big jump in Binay’s rating would indicate the possibility that he could overtake Mar. If Binay gains just 5% at the expense of Mar, he will win the vice presidential election.

Crucial for Binay, if he is to win, is to accomplish the following:

1. Reduce the big Mar lead in the Visayas, 44% versus 21%. The plus/minus 5% winning factor could easily come from there.

2. Win in Luzon where Mar has a 5% lead.

3. Maximize on the classes D and E where his genuine mahirap (poor) roots can gain more traction.

Your Chair Wrecker believes that one-on-one brand match ups may be the reason for the sudden change in the vice presidential landscape. Between Mar Roxas and Loren Legarda, there is a strong preference for Mar. Your Chair Wrecker has posited early on that Loren is a weak brand.

When voters saw the choice of vice president as between Mar Roxas and Jojo Binay, the preference had significantly shifted. That accounts for Binay’s upward momentum and Mar’s rating downtrend. This means that the voters only really gave Binay serious thought after he caught up with Loren and showed that he could win.

This also means that Binay’s key messages have gained traction – his “once poor” story and accomplishment track record in Makati. The current TV ad of Binay (“What other vice presidential candidates promise, Binay already accomplished in Makati) is quite powerful.

Makati City’s health care and education programs are the envy of many cities and municipalities in the country and a recent survey showed that health care is a major voting consideration. Mar is not entirely without an accomplishment in the health care department. Mar crafted the better version of the Cheaper Medicines Act.

It will be a very interesting vice presidential battle between Mar Roxas and Jojo Binay. Both of them have good “true stories” to tell and good track records and personal qualities to offer. Ground machinery will play a vital factor in this battle, specifically the vice presidential candidate whom many local leaders will carry.

Binay’s having been a local executive, his membership in the League of Cities and Municipalities – may have provided him an inside track. What weighs heavily for Mar is that he is the running mate of Noynoy Aquino, now widely perceived as the next president. Local leaders tend to gravitate to the new president.