The sinister motive behind the MOA
By Neal Cruz
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:15:00 08/06/2008 The question is, “Why?” Why is the administration of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo entering into an agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) that it knows it cannot implement? Many provisions of the Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) are unconstitutional. To be implemented, the Constitution will have to be changed and a federal system of government installed. The Constitution cannot be changed before the presidential election of 2010 because of lack of time. Therefore President Arroyo will be out of office before even the first steps of the MOA can begin to be implemented.
If provisions of the MOA are not implemented, the MILF can say the government negotiated in bad faith and declare independence because it already has all the elements of a state: government, people, territory and international recognition. So instead of peace, the MOA will bring instability and most probably violence.
And why are they so much in a hurry to have the MOA signed? It would have been signed Tuesday had not the Supreme Court issued a temporary restraining order. It really looks like the MOA was railroaded. There were no consultations before it was drafted. Local government officials were not consulted, the people of the areas to be affected were not consulted, Congress was not consulted.
The government said there will be consultations after the signing. What, consultations will be done after the agreement becomes a done deal? This is the first time I have heard of an agreement being concluded and signed before consultations with those to be affected are made. What if the people do not approve of the contents of the MOA? Can the done deal still be undone? Of course not.
The Arroyo administration suddenly came up with the announcement that a MOA would be signed in Malaysia within a few days. Very few even knew what the MOA contained; it was so secret. Hermogenes Esperon, the President’s peace adviser, distributed copies to generals during the weekend but not to the senators and congressmen. The Inquirer got a copy from one of the generals and published its contents last Monday, but many top public officials were in the dark about the provisions of the MOA. Most of them read it for the first time in the Inquirer. Why did the “peace” (?) panel, or the administration, behave that way?
At the Kapihan sa Manila media forum last Monday, past, present and future senators discussed the meaning of the developments surrounding the MOA. Former Senate President Franklin Drilon, Sen. Francis Escudero, and a future senator, Adel Tamano, a Muslim, speculated on the reasons behind the actions of the administration regarding the MOA and their conclusion is that the motive is very sinister.
The reason for the secrecy and the haste, they said, is that they knew it would never pass scrutiny. They also speculated that the government knew that the MOA cannot be implemented and therefore it would bring instability and violence instead of peace. So why are they doing this?
Aha, it is a clever, roundabout way to keep Ms Arroyo in power.
If violence spreads in Mindanao (it has already started in Iligan City: A congressman there texted Drilon that armed Muslims invaded some “barangay” [neighborhood district] there and Christians have started arming themselves), the President can have an excuse to declare martial law in Mindanao. Then when some bombs explode in the Visayas, Luzon and Metro Manila (remember when a few bombings in the metropolis and the fake ambush of then-minister of defense Juan Ponce Enrile gave Ferdinand Marcos the excuse to declare martial law in 1972?), martial law can be declared in the whole country.
With martial rule, the President can rule by decree, elections can be suspended, and Ms Arroyo will stay in power—indefinitely, until martial law is lifted and new elections are called, by which time the rules may have been changed, including allowing Ms Arroyo to run for a third term.
Speculation, yes, but it is possible. And if it is possible, you cannot rule it out. And with Ms Arroyo, you never know what is brewing in that little brain of hers.
But why would she want to stay on when she has had nothing but problems since she became president by forcibly pushing President Joseph Estrada out with the connivance of the Supreme Court, and for which she became the most hated president the Philippines ever had? Because when she is no longer president, she would no longer be immune from suit, so she would be inundated with cases, especially for graft the penalty for which is capital punishment. So if you are in her place, what will you do? Will you not try to hold on to power for as long as you can?
With her latest caper, however, she may not be able to even finish her term. Drilon said ceding a part of Philippine territory to the MILF—as the MOA will do—is an impeachable offense. Sen. Aquilino Pimentel Jr., ironically the champion of federalism, has a stronger word for it: treason.
By the way, what will it do to our claim to Sabah? Will it be part of the ancestral domain of the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity? (Remember, it belongs to the Sultanate of Sulu, whose latest sultan complains that he was not consulted on the MOA.) Maybe not. Maybe we will finally lose Sabah. The MOA will be signed in Malaysia. Do you think Malaysia will allow the signing inside its territory of a document that will take away Sabah from its federation?