Asian expert thinks China miscalculated

[ghosthunter]

Asian expert thinks China miscalculated
AS I WRECK THIS CHAIR By William M. Esposo (The Philippine Star)
Updated May 03, 2012 12:00 AM Comments (6) View comments

My friend W. Scott Thompson is always a good read. A Philippine and Asian expert, Scott has a good pulse on local events and its possible global repercussions. In my April 25, 2010 column (The Yankee Phobic GMA regime), your Chair Wrecker wrote the following backgrounder from Scott’s online bio:

1. W. Scott Thompson was a member of both the Ford and Reagan Administrations, has been adjunct professor of International Politics at Georgetown University and on the faculty of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. He also is president of Strategic Research Associates, an international consulting firm, dealing today with issues of corruption, and chairman of the Board of UTICo, a Massachusetts company specializing in repatriation of laundered and stolen funds to clients, including banks, investors, corporations, and governments.

2. A graduate of Stanford and Oxford, where he was a Rhodes Scholar from California, Prof. Thompson has regularly lectured on defense, Third World, corruption and communication issues, before various forums including international conferences. He is the author and editor of numerous books and articles on foreign policy and governance.

3. In 1982-1984 he served the Reagan Administration as associate director, US Information Agency and in 1975-1976 was assistant to the Secretary of Defense. He has been consultant to the State and Defense Departments and to the US Navy. In 1975-1976 he was a White House Fellow. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and International Institute for Strategic Studies and numerous other organizations.

4. Dr. Thompson has advised two Filipino presidents, its National Security Council, and four Filipino cabinet members, on the matter of searching for and repatriating funds stolen during the Marcos dictatorship. He has similarly consulted with the Thai foreign minister and the previous prime minister on this, as he has the Attorney General of Indonesia and specialized agencies of the Indonesian government established to seek illegally obtained moneys and properties.

In his April 29, 2012 New Straits Times article (The Philippines wouldn’t mind some Chinese shell shock), Scott felt that China gravely miscalculated in this Scarborough Shoal row. He wrote: “My own feeling is that the Chinese miscalculated. For nine years, the president, the unlamented Gloria Arroyo, let the Chinese have whatever they wanted, in return for personal favors — like the incredible broadband project, which allegedly carried with it a 50 percent cut to the first family (or more) and blew up in their faces.”

Scott added: “Washington has a president whose view of the world didn’t start with Europe, like every predecessor of his. Europe’s shine was dimming anyway. He started in Asia, having spent his boyhood in Jakarta and Hawaii. It gives that global map a different perspective. And interestingly, that perspective corresponded with the real trend in world politics, everything shifting perceptibly to Asia.”

“Now some of the smartest Filipinos are saying that the best thing the Chinese could do for the Philippines is to blast its coast from its vastly superior navy. The country is already showing a rare unanimity and nationhood over the confrontation at the Scarborough Shoal in what Manila calls the West Philippine Sea. If Beijing not only bared its fangs but let loose the cannon, the whole world would react — on Manila’s side. The “work in progress” of building a really coherent Filipino nation would benefit enormously. Already Manila has said that its Balikatan (shared effort) exercises with the United States Navy would proceed, even as Beijing blames them anew for causing the rumpus.” Scott wrote.

Scott further elaborated: “So, when a senior Filipino adviser said that he hoped Beijing “bombs the hell out of us, because then the Philippines becomes a united nation”, he meant it. And of course he knows the consequences. ASEAN tightens up, solidarity all around, and Obama doubles the base in Darwin and Manila, renews long dormant but never dead ties (and tons of military assistance to the Philippines).”

“That’s why smarter people in Beijing are having second thoughts; if for nothing else, for timing. It’s too soon for them to start baring the claws.” Scott closed his article.

Although Scott didn’t mention it, a great deal of the Chinese miscalculation was in underestimating the character of President Noynoy Aquino (P-Noy). P-Noy has been playing his cards right and maintaining equanimity all throughout this crisis. Evidently, P-Noy is no Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, whom a European ambassador suspects scuttled the MOA-AD after her trip to China.

China shouldn’t underestimate the impact of great leaders that can inspire David victories against bullying Goliaths. The Chinese can read about Leonidas of Sparta and Ho Chi Minh of Vietnam for starters. They should also read about how the Ancient Roman Empire was shocked when their highly touted Ninth Legion disappeared sans a trace in Caledonia, now Scotland. The Chinese should read what Germany’s Otto Von Bismarck said about God marching through history at certain crucial periods. They might become victims of unseen global landscape changing events.

China shouldn’t provoke Filipino greatness. If the Chinese still believe in the fates of nations being influenced by other unworldly powers, they should review the unusual circumstances that led to the rise of this Philippine president. 

source: Asian expert thinks China miscalculated - AS I WRECK THIS CHAIR By William M. Esposo - The Philippine Star » News » Opinion

[Bin Diesel]

Dispose of Corona quickly and unite against China.

[jave]

...unusual circumstances that led to the rise of this Philippine president

Does Esposo mean the death of a loved, good-intentioned-but-ultimately-lacked-in-ability president? Okay, but it's far from unusual.

Esposo is a known member of the media division of the Yellow Zombie Army.

The entire article just restates in a wordy manner what people with brains knew all along: China will never ever use force, because if they do, they will end up as the villain in the world's eyes. The world politics of today frown upon war and violence.

[CVT]

Miscalculated or not,- let's acquire (note not buy) those attack boats and fighter planes.....

15.6K:weathermanf2:

[Boy Bastos]

Does Esposo mean the death of a loved, good-intentioned-but-ultimately-lacked-in-ability president? Okay, but it's far from unusual.

Esposo is a known member of the media division of the Yellow Zombie Army.

The entire article just restates in a wordy manner what people with brains knew all along: China will never ever use force, because if they do, they will end up as the villain in the world's eyes. The world politics of today frown upon war and violence.

The PLA has already used military force against the Indians and Vietnam.

[hein]

DChina will never ever use force, because if they do, they will end up as the villain in the world's eyes. The world politics of today frown upon war and violence.

China will NEVER use Force? Who you kidding?


China mowing down 64 Vietnamese, turning them to Fish Food.

[pop3corn]

Now some of the smartest Filipinos are saying that the best thing the Chinese could do for the Philippines is to blast its coast from its vastly superior navy. The country is already showing a rare unanimity and nationhood over the confrontation at the Scarborough Shoal in what Manila calls the West Philippine Sea.

tsk sobrang in wavelength talaga ang thinking ko dyan sa mga Washington Think Tank na yan. ang galing lang sa inggles pero tugma dun sa sinasabi ko sa china thread hehe.

haayz, minsan sana dream ko ma-discover nila ako and become an analyst there in that side of the world. i have so much to offer.

but sometimes, I think parang masarap naman buhay ko ngaun eh, i'm fit, I socialize, I look good and eat healthy, i have some manageable amount of stress. though at times, I feel empty inside coz sometimes I ask myself why do I march to a different drummer. yes I tried to mingle but so incomplete.

would you believe I stumbled yesterday sa isang Channel about the Yugoslavia after the WWII, and I spent like an hour in that channel WTF!

[chua_riwap]

tsk sobrang in wavelength talaga ang thinking ko dyan sa mga Washington Think Tank na yan. ang galing lang sa inggles pero tugma dun sa sinasabi ko sa china thread hehe.

haayz, minsan sana dream ko ma-discover nila ako and become an analyst there in that side of the world. i have so much to offer.

but sometimes, I think parang masarap naman buhay ko ngaun eh, i'm fit, I socialize, I look good and eat healthy, i have some manageable amount of stress. though at times, I feel empty inside coz sometimes I ask myself why do I march to a different drummer. yes I tried to mingle but so incomplete.

would you believe I stumbled yesterday sa isang Channel about the Yugoslavia after the WWII, and I spent like an hour in that channel WTF!

go ahead OB. i'm supporting you 100% on your dreams.
1st tsikoteer na maging consultant/analyst ng white house.......

gising OB!

[niky]

The Chinese government is just making itself look foolish with all this bluff, bluster and posturing over the Scarborough shoals...

"Oh, help us! We're being bullied by a country that doesn't even have an air force or navy! They're beating up Chinese in the streets of Manila."

Yeah, as if anyone would believe that...

[Harangody]

Ang galing talaga ni OB. Na predict na may submarine yung US na nagtatago lang.

[pop3corn]

oo nga eh, si master jedi as zuckerberg, tapos ako washington lobbyist, tapos si uls may future maging lehman brother. ganun talaga meron kontrabida/odd man out, but every successful team must have that greedy smart member as fall guy.

[renzo_d10]

OB, susupportahan kita.

Basta ingatan mo yung fit body mo ha, baka dahil sa stress tumaba ka nalang.

[Monseratto]

Watched yesterday's Teditorial at ANC...Very interesting subject. This is where China is investing their future, not on lap dancing and singing for cheap thrill noon time shows. Even their rural schools are that good...

BBC News - China: The world's cleverest country?

China's results in international education tests - which have never been published - are "remarkable", says Andreas Schleicher, responsible for the highly-influential Pisa tests.

These tests, held every three years by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, measure pupils' skills in reading, numeracy and science.

Pisa tests - the Programme for International Student Assessment - have become the leading international benchmark.

The findings indicate that China has an education system that is overtaking many Western countries.

While there has been intense interest in China's economic and political development, this provides the most significant insight into how it is teaching the next generation.

'Incredible resilience'

The Pisa 2009 tests showed that Shanghai was top of the international education rankings.

But it was unclear whether Shanghai and another chart-topper, Hong Kong, were unrepresentative regional showcases.

The OECD's Andreas Schleicher: "Fairness and relevance are not the same thing" Mr Schleicher says the unpublished results reveal that pupils in other parts of China are also performing strongly.

"Even in rural areas and in disadvantaged environments, you see a remarkable performance."

In particular, he said the test results showed the "resilience" of pupils to succeed despite tough backgrounds - and the "high levels of equity" between rich and poor pupils.

"Shanghai is an exceptional case - and the results there are close to what I expected. But what surprised me more were the results from poor provinces that came out really well. The levels of resilience are just incredible.

"In China, the idea is so deeply rooted that education is the key to mobility and success."

Investing in the future

The results for disadvantaged pupils would be the envy of any Western country, he says.

Mr Schleicher is confident of the robustness of this outline view of China's education standards.

In an attempt to get a representative picture, tests were taken in nine provinces, including poor, middle-income and wealthier regions.

High school students shout slogans such as "I must go to college" in a pre-exam event in Nanjing The Chinese government has so far not allowed the OECD to publish the actual data.

But Mr Schleicher says the results reveal a picture of a society investing individually and collectively in education.

On a recent trip to a poor province in China, he says he saw that schools were often the most impressive buildings.

He says in the West, it is more likely to be a shopping centre.

"You get an image of a society that is investing in its future, rather than in current consumption."

There were also major cultural differences when teenagers were asked about why people succeeded at school.

"North Americans tell you typically it's all luck. 'I'm born talented in mathematics, or I'm born less talented so I'll study something else.'

"In Europe, it's all about social heritage: 'My father was a plumber so I'm going to be a plumber'.

"In China, more than nine out of 10 children tell you: 'It depends on the effort I invest and I can succeed if I study hard.'

"They take on responsibility. They can overcome obstacles and say 'I'm the owner of my own success', rather than blaming it on the system."

Education's World Cup

This year will see another round of Pisa tests - it's like World Cup year for international education. And Mr Schleicher's tips for the next fast-improving countries are Brazil, Turkey and Poland.


Armed with a spreadsheet and an impeccably polite manner, his opinions receive close attention in the world's education departments.

The White House responded to the last Pisa results with President Barack Obama's observation that the nation which "out-educates us today will out-compete us tomorrow".

The next round of global league tables will test 500,000 pupils in more than 70 countries - with the results to be published late next year.

Education ministers will be looking nervously at the outcome.

"In the past, politicians could always say we're doing better than last year - everyone could be a success," he says, describing the tendency for national results to rise each year.

The arrival of Pisa tests sent an icy draught through these insulated corridors.

No excuses

Perhaps the biggest discomfort of all was for Germany - where "Pisa shock" described the discovery that their much vaunted education system was distinctly average.


Finland was the education world leader in rankings a decade ago And the biggest change in attitude, he says, has been the United States - once with no interest in looking abroad, now enthusiastically borrowing ideas from other countries.

"Education is a field dominated by beliefs and traditions, it's inward looking. As a system you can find all kinds of excuses and explanations for not succeeding.

"The idea of Pisa was to take away all the excuses.

"People say you can only improve an education system over 25 years - but look at Poland and Singapore, which have improved in a very short time, we've seen dramatic changes."

The biggest lesson of the Pisa tests, he says, is showing there is nothing inevitable about how schools perform.

"Poverty is no longer destiny. You can see this at the level of economies, such as South Korea, Singapore."

Fair comparison?

A criticism of such rankings has been that it is unfair. How can an impoverished developing country be compared with the stockpiled multiple advantages of a wealthy Scandinavian nation?

Here Mr Schleicher makes a significant distinction. It might not be fair, but such comparisons are extremely relevant. "Relevance and fairness are not the same thing," he says.


South Korea is identified by the OECD as an example how education can drive economic growth Youngsters in the poorest countries are still competing in a global economy. "It's a terrible thing to take away the global perspective."

He also attacks the idea of accepting lower expectations for poorer children - saying this was the "big trap in the 1970s".

"It was giving the disadvantaged child an excuse - you come from a poor background, so we'll lower the horizon for you, we'll make it easier.

"But that child has still got to compete in a national labour market.

"This concept of 'fairness' is deeply unfair - because by making life easier for children from difficult circumstances, we lower their life chances."

'Sorting mechanism'

So why are the rising stars in Asia proving so successful?

Mr Schleicher says it's a philosophical difference - expecting all pupils to make the grade, rather than a "sorting mechanism" to find a chosen few.

He says anyone can create an education system where a few at the top succeed, the real challenge is to push through the entire cohort.

In China, he says this means using the best teachers in the toughest schools.

The shifting in the balance of power will be measured again with Pisa 2012, with pupils sitting tests from Stockholm to Seoul, London to Los Angeles, Ankara to Adelaide.

"I don't think of Pisa as being about ranking, it tells you what's possible. How well could we be doing?"

[donbuggy]

There were also major cultural differences when teenagers were asked about why people succeeded at school.

"North Americans tell you typically it's all luck. 'I'm born talented in mathematics, or I'm born less talented so I'll study something else.'

"In Europe, it's all about social heritage: 'My father was a plumber so I'm going to be a plumber'.

"In China, more than nine out of 10 children tell you: 'It depends on the effort I invest and I can succeed if I study hard'."

In the Philippines, it's all about personality (ma-PR) and connections. There are brainy Filipinos, but they're sidelined.

[Ry_Tower]

Just read a book titled "Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother".


Her daughters are never allowed to do the ff:
attend a sleepover
have a playdate
be in a school play
complain about ^ above post
watch TV or play video games during school days
choose their own extracurricular activities
get any grade less than A
not be the number 1 student in every subject except gym and drama
play any musical instrument other than piano or violin
not play the piano or violin

The kids must also learn math in advance of their grade preferebaly 2 years ahead. :jawdrop:

Kinda harsh but somehow succesful in the way chinese raise their children in the west.

[Monseratto]

Sa Pilipinas, coveted ang mag call center o mag asawa ng mayaman...

[vinj]

Just read a book titled "Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother".


Her daughters are never allowed to do the ff:
attend a sleepover
have a playdate
be in a school play
complain about ^ above post
watch TV or play video games during school days
choose their own extracurricular activities
get any grade less than A
not be the number 1 student in every subject except gym and drama
play any musical instrument other than piano or violin
not play the piano or violin

The kids must also learn math in advance of their grade preferebaly 2 years ahead. :jawdrop:

Kinda harsh but somehow succesful in the way chinese raise their children in the west.

Damn... i wouldnt be that way to mine. Competition today is fierce, but kids gotta be kids.

[pop3corn]

sus! whoever said na kelangan matalino ka para maging happy ka or maging fulfilling life mo. The Chinese are just breeding future geeks and nerds. with geekness comes boringness.

lalo lang sila maging bato nyan and therefore less interesting.

ako matalino ako pero I don't frown upon people who are less fortunate that I am. if you have the gift the intelligence, use it to help / inspire / guide lesser people. it doesn't necessary mean you have to give them everything. just affect them in your own positive way of sharing whatever you can share whether its just a simple smile.

nakita nyo ba yun mga tiga-Mainland China pag napila ka sa HK Disneyland, grabe ang tindeh sumingit tapos pag-aaralin pa ng ganyan eh di lalo lang nang-api mga yan.

tsaka ang sarap sa Pilipinas where most of our countrymen watch noon time shows, ang sarap ka-hangout kasi masayahin sila, talagang nakakatanggal ng stress. tapos maasikasuhin pa at kwela. pang lahat ng Pinoy tumalino at naging kasing bato ng mga Chinese, eh pupunta na lang ako sa L.A. kasi dun mga Pinoy, masayahin din


---

look at Japan, Japan is a close example of perfect society where all people are educated. sa sobrang talino nila, sila lang ang gusto mag-push sa mundo na gumawa ng robot, and interestingly, ang gusto nila robot eh emotional. only shows how they turned out to be, and that's kahit sobrang edukado sila, mas matinde pa din ang suicide rate nila

The Philippines is unique. we may not be rich financially but we are rich spiritually. in the end, if your whole life flashes before your eyes, ang timeline mo eh yun masayahin moments mo w/ friends/family, hindi yun time na sumuweldo o na-promote ka o may gold medal ka

[uls]

sus! whoever said na kelangan matalino ka para maging happy ka or maging fulfilling life mo. The Chinese are just breeding future geeks and nerds. with geekness comes boringness.

who said China's goal is individual happiness and fulfilment?

their govt couldnt care less about the happiness and fulfiment of their individual citizens. di naman America yan eh

sa US it's about individuals pursuing their own happiness. individualistic ang mga Kano. it's always about what an individual can achieve

in China it's about the collective. they're like the Borg. they work as a group to fulfill an end-goal. it's not about individual achievement. individuals are dispensable, easily replaced. they got 1.3 billion of them. what's important to them is what the country can achieve as a whole

China's goal is to build a strong nation

ang Pinas hindi. ang pinoy puro personal achievement. celebrating individual achievement. everyone's seeking personal glory. sa Pinas it's all about personalities. Pacquiao. Charice. Vice Ganda. Not about the country

sa China it's about China did this China did that. China built this China built that. no single individual gets the credit

ang pinoy it's always family muna, sarili muna. meron ba pinoy willing to sacrifice personal happiness for the greater good of the country?

[box_type]

who said China's goal is individual happiness and fulfilment?

their govt couldnt care less about the happiness and fulfiment of their individual citizens. di naman America yan eh

sa US it's about individuals pursuing their own happiness. individualistic ang mga Kano. it's always about what an individual can achieve

in China it's about the collective. they're like the Borg. they work as a group to fulfill an end-goal. it's not about individual achievement. individuals are dispensable, easily replaced. they got 1.3 billion of them. what's important to them is what the country can achieve as a whole

China's goal is to build a strong nation

ang Pinas hindi. ang pinoy puro personal achievement. celebrating individual achievement. everyone's seeking personal glory. sa Pinas it's all about personalities. Pacquiao. Charice. Vice Ganda. Not about the country

sa China it's about China did this China did that. China built this China built that. no single individual gets the credit

ang pinoy it's always family muna, sarili muna. meron ba pinoy willing to sacrifice personal happiness for the greater good of the country?

ah, err... Jose Rizal?