Apocalyse Now: Regime of High Oil and Food Prices

[Gen. Miting]

yes, they mismanaged the Ponzi financial system

they allowed consumers and companies to go into too much debt

the financial system, like any Ponzi scheme, has a peak, a critical mass, a maximum potential

if managed properly, reaching peak, reaching critical mass, reaching maximum potential can be prevented

they screwed up. they allowed too much debt. too much leverage.

the Anglo-American financial system reached critical mass, and now has imploded.

Now they are trying to save what's left of it.

And everything they do, there will be unintended consequences.

The consequences are not yet clear.

But those trillions of dollars of new money and new debt they are creating now will have an effect later on.

a massive effect. it's not going to be pretty.

You can't cure a drug addict by giving the drug addict more drugs.

That's what they're doing.

the Ponzi scheme and our proven decade-old financial system have the same characteristics. the only difference however is the Ponzi scheme is fraudulent in a way that there is a pull the plug hidden agenda.

the intent is to make the bubble burst.

in the 50's and 60's, normal citizen get house loans that are payable in 20-25 or even 30 years. come the 80's, did we have a bubble bursting? no, most people from the 50's/60's paid off their loans and now it's time for the next generation to do the same thing.

pero itong ponzi scheme aka "subprime", the authorized lenders, the subprimes, the fund managers, even the media somehow are in cahoots with each other and they really prayed that the bubble should burst.
and take profits ... and then let the govt. takeover.

actually, this idea came into mind into our generation bec. of how we are disciplined. in the 50's/60's, a child who is naughty gets punished, spanked or even thrown out of the house. there is no 2nd chance.
in our generation a child who is naughty does everything he wishes, and in the end, society tries to understand the child and acts as his/her guardian for his frail/innocent mind. laws are even made to jail a parent spanking a child.

ganyan din ang ponzi scheme, gawin mo lahat ng magagawa mo to further yun hidden agenda, in the end, what's the worse that can happen anyway. kung sinuwerte ka pa, you will be bailed-out. and all is forgiven ... and forgotten in time.

so whatever happened to our world right now started in the family. our lax laws, our respect for human rights/dignity nag-back-fire. not all children are innocent, some are just born schemers and if they see that they can get away with it at an early age, yun ang maging learning experience nila as they grow along

so are we in for the worst, i agree you with *uls.

hindi na talaga maalis ang new psyche na ganito.

the US announced billions of dollars of bail-out plan.

the people now dont view it is some sort of assistance on how to go along with the turmoil ahead, the people instead see it literally as it is, billions, cash how can i have a part of it?

but i also believe in the saying: "give them a dose of their own medicine" who knows the backfire will backfire against them ...

[uls]

we arent on the same page again.

you're still stuck in subprime

this already soooo beyond subprime

[Gen. Miting]

are we not on the same page?

the ponzi scheme today is applied in almost chronological order

first subprime, then oil, then bankruptcies, then govt stepping in, then food prices rising, then layoffs

hindi pa tapos ang scheme, although the rest of the world thought its finished already with the lowering of oil prices and bailout plans.

that's why I agreed with you that that they're feeding drugs to the drug addicts.

if i'm to speculate mukang pinatakbo na sa mga super computers ang scenario na ito, before this was even applied in real time. i can still spot the trends or "the scheme". it's still in motion ...

naalala ko tuloy yun japanese na laman ng billboard sa edsa nun. sya ata yun first nag-pioneer ng pyramiding dito sa'tin or even sa buong mundo. naglaho na yun hapon na yun. i wonder, naging consultant kaya sya sa world affairs and policies kasi somehow, his legacy is now being applied in legal channels na eh.

[uls]

OMG

that's far out dude

i know that pyramid scam you're talking about -- G. Cosmos... run by a guy named Genta Ogami

and you say he is now partly responsible for the global financial crisis?

haha

and i'm the one they call a conspiracy theorist here?

---

the decades-old Anglo-American-designed fiat currency financial system is under threat.

it's a ponzi scheme coz it has to keep on inflating otherwise it would collapse

businesses/consumers have to keep on borrowing, banks have to keep on lending, businesses/consumers have to keep paying back loans plus interest

the borrowing and lending and paying and borrowing and lending and paying should not stop...

and the amount of money borrowed and lent always has to be greater than previous amount of money borrowed and lent

but now, the amount of money being borrowed and lent is less than the previous amount that was borrowed and lent...

so there's less money available out there to service the previous amount that was borrowed and lent

so loans arent getting paid

which made the banks tighten credit

now, consumers/businesses have less access to credit,

so there's less business/consumer spending

which translates to less money available out there to pay back previous loans

which makes banks refuse to lend coz they already have tons of bad loans

it's a freaking negative feedback loop.

GAME OVER.

---

Now, governments are trying to re-inflate the deflating ponzi scheme by stimulating bank lending and business/consumer borrowing and spending

Good luck.

---

the job of central bankers is to manage the ponzi financial system by controlling money supply...

Just enough money to keep the system going, not too much (inflation), and not too little (deflation)...

The central bankers screwed up this time

[jpdm]

World oil prices are still going down...

But how come food prices remained relatively expensive especially in the Philippines?

....LPG is really going down especially the LPG used for cooking...

....How come food prices in fast food, restaurants and small carinderias remain high?

......Food prices also in supermarkets are still expensive.....

[Monseratto]

Maybe Bayan Muna and other militant groups should go out and protest with the demand that a Jollibee hamburger should only cost 15 petot...

[tidus1203]

Speaking of Jollibee its the perfect example of inflation still on a supposedly deflationary world... Kasi sa TV lagi na lang oil prices ang inaatupak kaya kala nila prices are falling pero sa Jollibee yung 2 pc. Chickenjoy P128 na! Dati P99 lang yun and that was just last year.

[uls]

i guess the govt should pressure the "food companies" to lower prices

they pressured the oil companies and it worked right?

it's easy to gather 5 or 7 oil executives around a table and shout at them...

Now if only they can gather everyone from the food industry around a table and shout at them too

hehe



they better have a really big table

[jpdm]

Speaking of Jollibee its the perfect example of inflation still on a supposedly deflationary world... Kasi sa TV lagi na lang oil prices ang inaatupak kaya kala nila prices are falling pero sa Jollibee yung 2 pc. Chickenjoy P128 na! Dati P99 lang yun and that was just last year.

This time I agree with you..

[jpdm]

Philippine Star
'Big 3' controls 85% of retail gas stations

POSTSCRIPT By Federico D. Pascual Jr.
Updated December 07, 2008 12:00 AM

LOPSIDED: [SIZE=4]It is not the final solution, but the suggestion of former senator Ernesto Herrera to stop issuing permits to the Big 3 oil companies to open more retail stations could help loosen their 85-percent control of the market for petroleum products.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=4][/SIZE]
Herrera said the Department of Energy should give more permits for the retail outlets of the small players to level the field, promote fair competition and lower fuel prices.


The downstream oil industry has been deregulated. Pricing is left to the sellers to decide, so whoever control the outlets are able to dictate pump prices regardless of the cost of crude oil in the world market and other input factors.


With the Big 3 — Petron Corp., Pilipinas Shell Petroleum Corp. and Caltex Philippines Inc. (now Chevron Philippines Inc.) — controlling 85 percent of the retail stations, they can charge high regardless of the selling prices of minority retailers.

* * *

BIG 3 PILE: Based on data gathered by the Trade Union Congress of the Philippines, Petron holds 40 percent of the market (P212.932 billion in revenues), followed by Pilipinas Shell with 30 percent (P164.703 billion), and Chevron 15 percent (P77.888 billion).
The small players have 15 percent (P82.27 billion). Among them are Total Philippines Corp., Oilink International Corp., Seaoil Philippines Inc., Filoil Gas Co. Inc., Unioil Petroleum Philippines Inc., Eastern Petroleum Corp. and Filpride Resources Inc.
Herrera, who is TUCP secretary-general, said the Big 3 piled up P42 million in combined daily net profits in 2007.
Shell posted a net profit of P6.355 billion in 2007, up 54.1 percent from P4.123 billion in 2006. Petron reported a net profit of P6.113 billion in 2007, up 2.8 percent from P5.944 billion in 2006. Yet they still claim “underrecoveries.”

* * *

P50-M DAILY PROFITS: The Big 3 raked in P15.319 billion in aggregate net profits in 2007. Herrera said the three giants could easily earn P50 million in daily profits this year.
He cited a regulatory filing showing that Chevron booked a net income of P2.851 billion in 2007, up P106 million or 3.9 percent compared to the P2.745 billion it posted in 2006.
Chevron is the least regulated among the Big 3, he said, because it does not operate a refinery anymore, unlike Shell and Petron.
It merely operates an import terminal for refined oil products, selling them through company-owned or franchised service stations.

If this is the solution in reducing the prices of petroleum here, why not....

[tidus1203]

MANILA, Philippines - The Philippines incurred more debts in September as the government sold more securities and as the peso depreciated.

The national government’s total outstanding obligations rose to P4.1 trillion in September, P76 billion more from last month, the Bureau of Treasury (BTr) said in a statement.

Of the total figure, P1.731 billion—or 42 percent—were owed to foreign creditors while the remaining 58 percent or P2.369 trillion are expected to be paid to local creditors, the BTr said.

Domestic debt increased by P10 billion—approximately 0.4 percent—from last month’s levels as the government issued and sold more securities to shore up its cash reserves.

The P66 billion hike in the government’s foreign obligations “was due to the P51 billion and P19 billion depreciation of the peso and the third currencies against the US dollar, respectively."

“However, this was partially offset by the P4 billion in net repayments," the BTr said.

Meanwhile, contingent debt—composed primarily of guarantees issued by the national government—declined to P512 billion from August’s P519 billion.

The P7 billion decline was the combined results of P13 billion worth of net repayments, P8 billion prepayment of National Power Corp. loans, and P14 billion net depreciation of the peso against the US dollar.

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/138355/R...-to-lower-peso

As expected weaker peso equals bigger debt...

[True Faith]

..local oil prices are still relatively high.....

..government must pressure oil companies to roll back oil prices....

[kinyo]

As expected weaker peso equals bigger debt...

how come peso is getting weaker, when i thought it is the u.s. dollar that is in trouble?

mahirap talaga ang ignorante sa ekonomiya

[tidus1203]

how come peso is getting weaker, when i thought it is the u.s. dollar that is in trouble?

mahirap talaga ang ignorante sa ekonomiya

Pang long term ang decline ng US Dollar and when I say decline not necessarily against other paper currency. I say decline in value as in decline in purchasing power and substantially by the way. Let's face it a lot of capital is still based in USD. When capital flies for safety, they sell risky assets and go for safe assets or percieved to be safe assets. The PHP is a very risky asset, its backed by the full faith of the Republic of the Philippines and for foreigners that's not comforting at all! The USD is backed by the full faith of Uncle Sam, mas matatag naman yung pangalan By the way other major currency like the Euro and Pound Sterling is also hammered against the USD. The only exception is the Japanese Yen and di ko na explain dito kung bakit mahabang storya.

[uls]

kaya malakas ang dollar ngayon kasi malakas ang demand sa dollar

kasi ang mga investors nagsibentahan ng mga investments nila around the world (stocks, commodities etc)... convert to cash dollars so malakas ang demand sa cash dollars... dahil sa takot na babagsak ang world economy

Tumindi ang takot nung September nung bumagsak ang Lehman

Kaya kung meron tayo chart ng USD index, makikita natin lumakas ang dollar around that time

last year hanggang 1st half this year, mahina dollar

Pero long term, hihina dollar

kasi yan talaga ang intention ng US central bank

dinedevalue nila ang dollar para makalabas sa crisis na ito

[jpdm]

Manila Times
December 15, 2008

Shell Seeks Incentive for Oil Refining

THE Philippines’ oil refiners are in need of government support to survive the substantial drop in crude prices, an industry official said.

In a recent industry meeting at the Department of Energy, Edgar Chua, Pilipinas Shell Petroleum Corp. country chairman, said the government should decide whether it wants to be an importer of petroleum finished products or maintain a refining industry.


“If they want the country to continue to have a refining industry then they should provide support and incentives especially now that we’re seeing negative refining margins,” he said.


As with Petron Corp., Shell’s profits for the year are expected to take a hit from low crude prices, which plummeted amid the recession in the United States and other major industrialized economies.


The regional benchmark Dubai crude had plunged to a monthly average of $42.00 a barrel as of December 10 from a peak of $131.27 a barrel in July.
In contrast, the prices of imported diesel and gasoline from the region have gone down to a monthly average of $64.00 a barrel and $38.00 a barrel as of December 10 from their peak of $169.36 a barrel and $140.30 a barrel, respectively, in June.


Because of the drop in world oil prices, refiners like Shell and Petron, whose inventories last for about two months, have been saddled with costlier stocks, resulting in losses because of low fuel prices at the pump.
Excluding the sale of the economic value of the Shell brand to Shell Brands International AG for P3 billion, Chua said the company would end this year with losses or at most, P300 million in profits.



“Please note the capital employed for our business is at least P50 billion. So even if we make P500 million that’s only a 1-percent return. That’s not an attractive return,” he said.


The Shell official said the company would abide by whatever the government decides with regard to proposed amendments to the Oil Deregulation law.


“That is up to the government. So if they want the country to be an importer then that’s fine, that’s the policy we should follow,” he said.
-- Euan Paulo C. Añonuevo

I hate Shell for violating the oil deregulation law (of not going public) and for its very slow way of rolling back the prices of its oil products...

But then again...I support Shell and Petron perhaps ...for their call on the government of giving incentives to them as refiners..

Hindi puedeng puro importers..

kaya palpak ekonomiya natin and prone to external (economic)threats because of our over dependence on imports.

[valvura]

OT ba 'to?

We keep on focusing on the Big 3, e how about the transport sector? meron bang nire-recover ang mga yan? wala bang ngipin ang gobyerno para i-rollback ang fares to say January 2008 rates (when pump prices are about the same as today's)? Seems everybody is GREEDY, even tricycle drivers! As if they are the forever 'kawawa' needing sympathy!!!

reference for average Philippine gasoline prices:

http://www.alternat1ve.com/biofuel/2...ces-2007-2008/

[tidus1203]

Everyone is GREEDY!!! Oil companies, transport groups everyone wants to be ahead that is human nature.

[uls]

haha

pag nasanay na sa mas malaking kita, mahirap na bumalik sa maliit na kita

[alainroyce]

haha

pag nasanay na sa mas malaking kita, mahirap na bumalik sa maliit na kita

Tama po kayo dyan... We already forgot the prime nessesity... RICE! bakit walang rollback sa price? when their's a oil price increase they immediately increase the price... the reason is tumaas gas...but now bumaba gas... they said...sarap ng buhay! bakit ako magbaba ng price?