Anthropogenic Climate Change: Skepticism and why science is never settled

[safeorigin]

to make the story short, what then drives the change in climate? if my memory serves me right, it was the meteor that hits earth --obliterate the dino and kickstart the rapid evolution, induced climate change. Before we draw conclusions, lets go back to the formation of our planet. Back then, theres no such thing as water. The whole planet is a molten lava.

that's not the entire picture though because we also have to take into account the ice age cycles, solar minimum cycles, el nino/la nina ocean oscillations, and others.

[timo07]

to make the story short, what then drives the change in climate? if my memory serves me right, it was the meteor that hits earth --obliterate the dino and kickstart the rapid evolution, induced climate change. Before we draw conclusions, lets go back to the formation of our planet. Back then, theres no such thing as water. The whole planet is a molten lava.

Goodluck drawing conclusions based on the history of this planet. Experts say Earth has been formed millions of years ago. Man has inhabited it for what, a couple or more thousand of years? Scientific study has not revealed all the facts yet, more are still theories....

[b_9904]

By the way, biofuels do not count as an alternative to fossil fuels, if you consider how it is made in relation to the global food and water security, and population and its growth rate.

With that said, ethanol 85 can do wonders to an engine

For the curious: https://youtu.be/ltWcgiCm4NY

[anonemus]

*safe, you really ought to quote more credible news source. Breitbart, seriously?

Even the linked articles are from dubious sources. I bet those are from Koch hacks.

[niky]

Did Global Warming Slow Down in the 2s, or Not? - Scientific American

The pause is real.

-

But the Earth is still getting hottah, yo.

Was 214 Really the Warmest Year? Here's Why It Doesn't Matter | Mother Jones

The problem with the intersection of politics and science.

Scientists (at least good ones) will admit what they don't know, and will continually study a problem until they know everything.

Politicians (and their mouthpieces, like Fox or Breitbart) will never admit to not knowing, or to being wrong.

[b_9904]

The problem with the intersection of politics and science.

Scientists (at least good ones) will admit what they don't know, and will continually study a problem until they know everything.

Politicians (and their mouthpieces, like Fox or Breitbart) will never admit to not knowing, or to being wrong.

Which is the point this thread is making.

The science is never settled with climate science.

[safeorigin]

*safe, you really ought to quote more credible news source. Breitbart, seriously?

Even the linked articles are from dubious sources. I bet those are from Koch hacks.

doesn't matter if it's from Breitbart or not. selective news will only give you a selective perspective :P

the pause is real.

with the lack of solid concensus, it's concieted to label alternative hypothesis as dubious when the null/mainstream hypothesis itself is dubious.

the point is, people are vastly underestimating the other components that contribute to warming most notably water which contributes 60-95% to heat retention. whenever there's an el nino cycle, its effects are immediately noticeable.

it's also important to note that some parts of the world are experiencing record low temperatures in the past couple of years... and not to mention run away albedo effect.

[safeorigin]

Even the linked articles are from dubious sources. I bet those are from Koch hacks.

yeah... I really do bet those are Koch hacks and you'd be making the same statement a decade ago...

http://www.nature.com/articles/nclim...www.nature.com

John C. Fyfe - review editor of IPCC
Gerald A. Meehl - lead author of IPCC
Matthew H. England - co-director of climate change research centre
Michael E. Mann - Mr. Hockey Schtick
Gregory M. Flato - coordinating lead author of IPCC
Ed Hawkins - contributing author IPCC
Nathan P. Gillett - IPCC lead author
Shang-Ping Xie - Lead Author in IPCC study and won nobel prize with Al Gore
Yu Kosaka - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal...ture12534.html
Niel C. Swart - IPCC contributing author

[safeorigin]

to have a better grasp of what the pause is, it's important to know what the data sets used are

All temperature diagrams shown below have 1979 as starting year. This roughly marks the beginning of the recent period of global warming, after termination of the previous period of global cooling from about 1940. In addition, the year 1979 also represents the starting date for the satellite-based global temperature estimates (UAH and RSS).

For the three surface air temperature estimates shown (HadCRUT, NCDC and GISS) the reference period differs. HadCRUT refers to the official “normal” WMO period 1961-1990, while NCDC and GISS as reference instead uses 1901-2000 and 1951-1980, respectively, which results in higher positive temperature anomalies.

For all three surface air temperature records, but especially NCDC and GISS, administrative changes to anomaly values are quite often introduced, even for observations several years back in time. Some changes may be due to the delayed addition of new station data, while others probably have their origin in a change of technique to calculate average values. It is clearly impossible to evaluate the validity of such administrative changes for the outside user of these records. In addition, the three surface records represent a blend of sea surface data collected moving ships or by other means, plus data from land stations of partly unknown quality and unknown degree of representativeness for their region. Many of the land stations have also moved geographically during their existence, and their instrumentation changed.

The satellite temperature records also have their problems, but these are generally of a more technical nature and therefore correctable. In addition, the temperature sampling by satellites is more regular and complete on a global basis than that represented by the surface records.

It therefore is realistic to recognise that the temperature records are not of equal scientific quality. At the same time the big efforts being put into all five temperature databases should be gratefully acknowledged by all interested in climate science.

On this background, the present website has decided to operate with three quality classes (1-3) for global temperature records, with 1 representing the highest quality level:

Quality class 1: The satellite records (UAH and RSS).

Quality class 2: The HadCRUT surface record.

Quality class 3: The NCDC and GISS surface records.

The main reasons for discriminating between the three surface records are the following:

1) While both NCDC and GISS often experience quite large administrative changes, and therefore essentially must be considered unstable records, the changes introduced to HadCRUT are fewer and smaller. For obvious reasons, as the past do not change, an unstable record cannot be correct all the time.

2) A comparison with the superior Argo float sea surface temperature record shows that while HadCRUT uses a sea surface record (HadSST3) nicely in concert with the Argo record, a comparison between Argo and NCDC and GISS data shows a marked discrepancy.

The differences between the individual diagrams shown below demonstrate the difficulties associated with calculating a correct average global temperature. Es*** et al. (2006) have an interesting discussion of the whole concept of calculating an average global temperature. In addition, global surface air temperatures should only be considered a poor indicator of global climate heat changes, as air has relatively little mass associated with it. Ocean heat changes remain the dominant factor for global heat changes. Global air temperatures, however, continues to attract widespread interest, and many scientist assume that the air temperature at least may be considered a useful proxy for the present state of the global climate system.

In the temperature diagrams below, the thick line represents the running 37 month average and the thin line the monthly temperature. Both values are the result of a number of mathematical manipulations with the original temperature data, and especially so the running average. In the text below each diagram you will find a link enabling you to download and analyze the data yourself. All diagrams below are using the same temperature scale, to enable easy visual comparison.

climate4you GlobalTemperatures

I have previously used HadCRUT in this thread (mostly to the "deniers" disadvantage) and opted not to post UAH and RSS data set so you won't say I'm "biased"... note: this is unadjusted data so it's about as raw as it gets

because like it or not, it goes like this:



on the other hand, NCDC and GISS data sets are about as consistent as the methodology of the Fed when it comes to measuring unemployment, and inflation. the recent most noteworthy example is last year when NOAA adjusted the previous decade to make it look like it's warming faster and refute IPCC's claim that there's a warming pause.

see? this is why climate science is never settled.

[b_9904]

What They Haven't Told You about Climate Change - YouTube

Just putting it out there :D

[safeorigin]

but wait! there's more:

the latest and greatest doomsday scenario for mankind! Ocean Acidification because of CO2

hahaha

but of course you won't hear about: Coccolithophore - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

and about this place: White Cliffs of Dover - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

and how all that 7000 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere hundreds of millions of years ago was sequestered at the bottom of the ocean

oh the humanity! we're all doomed!

meanwhile... this fish isn't complaining.

[StockEngine]

Climate change is the biggest indoctrination brought to us by politicians and msm lol.

[safeorigin]

the original scientists who postulated runaway greenhouse effect have pretty much went 180 but the media and politicians are silent about it... mostly because it means losing funding.

Climate change debate – latest results | Watts Up With That?

Greens Request Private Sector Keep the Cash Flowing | Watts Up With That?

[safeorigin]

U.N. Official Reveals Real Reason Behind Warming Scare | Stock News & Stock Market Analysis - IBD

yup... it's environmental marxism.

[safeorigin]

World leaders duped by manipulated global warming data | Daily Mail Online