Most of the top 12 senatorial bets belong to the political opposition.
With the dismissal by the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) of the petition for a People’s Initiative to amend the constitution and the likelihood of charter change before next year diminished, the 2007 elections is becoming an even more crucial political exercise.
Twenty personalities, led by former Senator Loren Legarda, have a statistical chance of winning if the May 2007 senatorial elections were held today. Most of these individuals are affiliated with the political opposition, although given the fluidity of the country’s situation, the political affiliation of these individuals may still change between today and May 2007. Currently, the following individuals end up within the winning circle of 12 senators: (1) former Senator Legarda (48.6%); (2) Senator Francis N. Pangilinan (39.0%); (3) Senator Panfilo M. Lacson (34.9%); (4) Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. (34.2%); (5) Senator Ralph G. Recto (33.1%); (6) former Senator Vicente C. Sotto III (31.0%); (7) Atty. Aquilino Pimentel III (29.9%); (8) Taguig-Pateros Representative Alan Peter S. Cayetano (29.5%); (9) former Senator Greogorio B. Honasan (27.7%); (10) San Juan Mayor JV Ejercito-Estrada (23.8%); (11) Ilocos Norte Representative Imee R. Marcos (23.1%); and (12) former Senator John Henry Osmeņa (22.7%).
Given the survey’s margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, the following probable senatorial candidates also have a statistical chance of winning: (1) Tarlac Representative Benigno C. Aquino III (21.8%); (2) Senator Luisa P. Estrada (21.7%); (3) Senator Joker P. Arroyo (21.0%); (4) Senator Edgardo J. Angara (20.9%); (5) House Minority Floor Leader Francis G. Escudero (20.2%); (6) former Senator Francisco S. Tatad (18.9%); (7) Presidential Chief of Staff Michael T. Defensor (18.7%); and (8) Muntinlupa Representative Rozzano Rufino B. Biazon (18.5%).
With less than a year to go before the May 2007 senatorial elections, Filipinos are now identifying, on average, eight (out of a maximum of 12) of their bets to the Philippine Senate. About 10% of Filipinos are either still undecided as regards their senatorial bets or refuse to name their candidates to the Senate.